The Dollar Index has indeed risen past 99 and if sustained, can head towards 100-101 in the near term. While Euro & EURINR can fall towards 1.15-1.14 & 102.50-102.00 respectively. EURJPY & USDJPY have declined a bit, still the targets of 180 and 154-155 are kept open for now. USDCNY continues to consolidate between 7.10-7.15 region. The Aussie and Pound need to see an immediate rise past 0.66 and 1.34, else both the pairs can be vulnerable to test 0.65 and 1.32/31 respectively. USDINR continues to remain stuck within 88.60-88.85 region.

Political risks in Japan and France have led to depreciation of both the Euro and Yen against the Dollar Index (99.35) . The index reached a high of 99.56 yesterday before easing slightly. If the rise continues above 99, a test of the 100–101 range is possible in the near term.

EURUSD (1.1640) and EURINR (103.3168) are coming off as anticipated and can extend the ongoing fall towards 1.15-1.14 & 102.50-102.00 respectively.

EURJPY (176.96) met our initial target of 178 before declining a bit. Still, the target of 180 is kept open for now while the cross trades above 176.

Dollar-Yen (152.51) has inched lower from the high of 153.27. The target of 154-155 can get achieved while it sustains above current levels. Only if the fall gets extended below 152, might lead us to assume that the pair has peaked out.

USDCNY (7.1322) continues to consolidate between 7.10-7.14/15 region.

Aussie (0.6571) initially dropped to a low of 0.6540 but has since recovered slightly. However, a break above 0.66 is needed to confirm further upside; otherwise, it remains vulnerable to extend the fall to 0.65 or lower

Pound (1.3305) fell sharply to 1.3279 so far. Failing to see an immediate rise past 1.34 can drag it further to 1.32-1.31 in the coming sessions.

USDINR (88.7840) remained stable within the narrow range of 88.60-88.85. The range can persist for some time until a breakout is seen on either side.

The US Treasury yields have bounced back. The support is holding well. Broadly, it looks like the yields are stuck in a sideways range for now. We may have to wait for the range breakout to get clarity on the next move. The German yields have inched up. But still there is room on the downside to test their support before bullish reversal happens. The 10Yr GoI is holding well above its support and can rise in the coming days.

The US 10Yr (4.14%) and 30Yr (4.72%) Treasury yields have bounced back. The support at 4.1% (10Yr) and 4.7% (30Yr) is holding well. Looks like the yields are stuck in a range. 4.08%-4.2% (10Yr) and 4.65%-4.8% (30Yr) is trading range for now. We may have to wait for a breakout of the range to get clarity on the next move.

The German 10Yr (2.70%) and 30Yr (3.28%) yields inched up. But we retain our view of seeing 2.65% (10Yr) and 3.2% (30Yr) on the downside first and then see a fresh rise to 2.8% (10Yr) and 3.4% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.5239%) seems to be inching up. While above 6.5%, a rise to 6.6% is possible. Only a break below 6.5% will bring in the chances of the fall to 6.45%-6.4%.

The Dow, Dax and the Nifty are all headed towards their respective resistances at 47000, 25000 and 25500 which if held can take the indices down in the coming days. Watch price action near the mentioned resistance levels. Shanghai also has similar resistance at 4000 and can see trade within 3800-4000 for the near term. On the other hand, The Nikkei, having broken the crucial resistance at 48000, seems to be gradually rising towards 50000 and looks bullish for now. 

The Dow (46358.42, -0.52%) has important resistance at 47000 below which there is scope for a fall to 46000-45500 eventually in the coming sessions. Near term trade between 47000-45500 looks possible.

DAX (24611.25, +0.057%) is slowly heading towards the weekly resistance at 25000 from where a sharp rejection can be seen in the medium term. Upside seems limited to a couple of weeks if the current rise is slow and gradual.

Nifty (25181.80, +0.54%) has moved up yesterday recovering the dip seen on the day before. It can re-test 25250-25500 on the upside post which it has to be seen if it declines back within the 24600-25500 range or manages to break higher.

Having broken above the crucial resistance at 48000, Nikkei (48233.02, -0.72%) needs to sustain the momentum to continue its rally to 50000. Immediate view looks bullish while above 48000.

Shanghai (3920.10, -0.35%) tested 3936 before coming off slightly. The price has scope to rise towards resistance at 4000 before facing sharp rejection from there. Near term trade between 3800-4000 can be seen.

Brent and WTI continue to fall towards $ 64 and $ 60, with deeper losses possible if supports break. Gold stays above key support at $ 3950-3900, keeping the upside view intact, while Silver may test $ 46 before rebounding. Copper remains rangebound and needs a clear break above $ 5.25 or below $ 5.00 for direction. Natural Gas continues to weaken and could slip further towards $ 3.20-3.15 in the near term.

Brent ($ 65.28) continues to fall in line with our expectations and could decline towards $ 64 in the near term, with a further drop towards $ 62-60 possible on a break below $ 64.

WTI ($ 61.60) has also moved lower as expected and could soon test $ 60. A sustained break below this level may extend the decline towards $ 58-56.

Gold ($ 3987.90) fell sharply to a low of $ 3957.90 yesterday. Immediate support is seen near $ 3950 and further down at $ 3900. As long as these supports hold, our view of a potential rise towards $ 4100-4200 remains valid.

Silver ($ 47.57) tested a high of $ 49.97 as expected but failed to sustain and fell sharply to close at $ 47.16 yesterday. Immediate support is seen near $ 46, which could be tested in the near term before any recovery takes place.

Copper ($ 5.1290) rose above our expected levels to a high of $ 5.26 but failed to sustain and closed lower at $ 5.1230 yesterday. A sustained break above $ 5.25 or below $ 5.00 is needed for further directional clarity in the coming weeks.

Natural Gas ($ 3.2420) has fallen as expected and could decline further towards $ 3.20-3.15 in the near term.

GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US NFP
64 …Expectations 51 …Previous 22

GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US Unemployment Rate
…Expectations 4.3 …Previous 4.3

GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US Avg Hrly Earnings
0.2 …Expectations 0.3 …Previous 0.3

GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US Average Hourly Earnings Production & Non Supervisory Employees
…Previous 0.4

{GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 CA Labour Force
…Expectations 2.8 …Previous -65.5

DATA YESTERDAY
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NO MAJOR DATA RELEASED YESTERDAY.