The Dollar Index dipped slightly to 99.257 but can still rise towards 100-101 while above 98.80, else it risks a fall towards 98-97. EURUSD continues to hover above 1.15, and only a break above 1.16 can trigger a move towards 1.17, while failure to do so may drag it back to 1.15 or even 1.14. EURINR is trading near 102.5, and a break below this level could push it down to 102-100, though a bounce can take it back up towards 104-104.50. EURJPY remains firm near 176.39 with room to test 180-182 before a possible medium-term decline towards 174-170. Dollar-Yen is steadily rising and could test 153-154 soon before topping out. USDCNY continues to consolidate between 7.12-7.14, while the Aussie stays range-bound between 0.645-0.660 below 0.66. The Pound remains weak below 1.34, with risks of falling to 1.32 or lower. USDINR has held above 88.50, keeping the bias positive for a rise towards 89.00-89.25 in the coming weeks.

Dollar Index (99.257) has dipped slightly but could have scope to test 100/101 while above 98.80. Else a decline back to 98-97 region ca be expected in the coming days.

EURUSD (1.1572) has been trading in a ranged manner above 1.15. It has to rise above 1.16 to gradually move up towards crucial resistance at 1.17. Else it could test 1.15 again and increase chances of a further decline in the medium term towards 1.14. For now, a broad range of 1.15-1.17 can hold for the next couple of weeks.

EURINR (102.5973) is trading just above the 102.5 level and needs to break that decisively to test 102-100 on the downside. Else an immediate bounce from here is needed for the cross to rise towards 104-104.50 in the coming days.

EURJPY (176.39) could have scope to test 180-182 from where a medium term decline can be seen towards 174-170 or lower. 174 is a very near term support below current level.

Dollar-Yen (152.45) is rising as expected and could test 153-154 in the next few sessions before getting peaked out.

USDCNY (7.1345) has inched slightly higher but is expected to continue consolidating within a narrow range of 7.12-7.14 and a broader range of 7.10-7.15 for some time.

Aussie (0.6511) is likely to trade within the 0.645-0.660 range for a while, as long as it remains below 0.66.

Pound (1.3342) is holding below the immediate resistance at 1.34, and as long as this level holds, the pair remains vulnerable to a decline towards 1.32 or even lower.

USDINR (88.6420) tested a low of 88.57 yesterday, but while it sustains above the immediate support at 88.50, the outlook remains bullish for a rise towards 89.00-89.25 in the coming weeks.

The US Treasury yields have bounced slightly in the early Asian session. But that is likely to be short-lived. Resistance is there to cap the upside and drag the yields lower in the coming days. The German Yields remain lower and stable. There is not much room to fall from here. Support near current levels can hold well and trigger a rise going forward. The 10Yr GoI has dipped. But the bias remains positive to see a rise as long as the yield sustains above the immediate support.

The US 10Yr (4.06%) and 30Yr (4.65%) Treasury yields bounced in the early Asian session. But resistance at 4.1%-4.15% (10Yr and 4.7%-4.75% (30Yr) can cap the upside. That will keep the chances alive to see a fall to 3.9%-3.85% (10Yr) and 4.55%-4.5% (30Yr) going forward.

The German 10Yr (2.63%) and 30Yr (3.22%) yields remain lower and stable. Support at 2.6% (10Yr) and 3.2% (30Yr) can limit the downside. The yields are likely to rise back to 2.7% (10Yr) and 3.3% (30Yr) and higher eventually in the coming days.

The 10Yr GoI (6.5198%) has dipped. But while above 6.5%, the rise to 6.6% will remain intact. Only a fall below 6.5% will negate that rise and take the yield down to 6.45%-6.4%.

The Dow, Dax and Shanghai have risen well and could target 46500-47000, 24500 and 4000 respectively if the rise sustains for the coming days. Nifty has dipped but needs to sustain above 25000 to have scope for a rise to 25500 else can decline back towards 24800-24600 region. The Nikkei has fallen below 48000 and if it breaks below 47500 also, then it may become vulnerable to fall towards 46000.

The Dow (46067.58, +1.29%) has bounced as expected. It can rise further towards 46500-47000 in the near term. 

DAX (24387.93, +0.60%) has risen yesterday but has scope to test 24000-23600 in the downside. The expected dip can be negated only on an immediate rise above 24500 in the next few days targeting 25000 or higher.

Nifty (25227.35, -0.23%) dipped slightly yesterday. The index needs to sustain above 25200 and rise gradually to head towards 25500. Else a decline below 25200 can take it down to 25000 or lower again.

Nikkei (47674.90, -0.86%) has fallen below 48000. A further break below 47500 will open doors towards 46000.

Shanghai (3914.82, +0.65%) has moved up sharply. It can rise towards 4000 while above 3900.

Crude prices extended their short-term gains as Brent rose to $ 63.50 and may test $ 64 before turning lower towards $ 62-60, while WTI at $ 59.73 could touch $ 61 before declining towards $ 56-54 in the coming weeks. Gold surged above $ 4100 to a record high of $ 4137.20 and remains poised for a further rise towards $ 4200-4250. Silver too broke past $ 50, hitting a new peak of $ 50.89 with scope to advance towards $ 51.50-52.50. Copper continued its bullish momentum, reaching $ 5.15 and could move up to $ 5.20-5.25 soon, whereas Natural Gas weakened below $ 3.10 and may slip further towards $ 3.05-3.00 in the near term.

Brent ($ 63.50) has risen as expected and could extend its upmove towards $ 64 in the near term before reversing lower towards $ 62-60 in the coming weeks.

WTI ($ 59.73) has moved slightly higher in line with expectations and may test $ 61 in the near term before resuming its decline towards $ 56-54 in the coming weeks.

Gold ($ 4154.10) has climbed above $ 4100 as expected, reaching a new all-time high of $ 4137.20 yesterday. A further rise towards $ 4200-4250 is likely in the near term.

Silver ($ 51.23) has broken above $ 50 to hit a new all-time high of $ 50.89 yesterday. A continued rise towards $ 51.50-52.50 looks likely in the near term.

Copper ($ 5.1215) has tested a high of $ 5.15 as expected and could move higher towards $ 5.20-5.25 in the near term.

Natural Gas ($ 3.0940) has fallen below $ 3.10 as expected, and a further decline towards $ 3.05-3.00 can be seen in the near term.

GMT 6:00 IST 11:30 UK Unemp
4.6 …Expectations 4.7 …Previous 4.7

GMT 6:30 IST 12:00 IN WPI
0.77 …Expectations 0.50 0.52

GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US Trade Balance
…Expectations -95.5 …Previous -78.3

DATA YESTERDAY
===============

GMT 10:30 IST 16:00 IN CPI
… 2.28 …Expectations 1.70 …Previous 2.07 …Actual 1.54