The Dollar Index can still rise towards 100-101 while above 98.80-98.50. EURUSD & EURINR faces immediate resistance at 1.165 & 103.50. Failing to see a rise past these levels can drag both the pairs toward 1.15/14 & 102.50 or lower respectively. EURJPY has support coming at 174. While it holds the targets of 178-180 are kept open. Similarly, as long as Dollar-Yen remains above 150, it can attempt to rise back towards 153-154. USDCNY continues to consolidate between 7.14-7.12. While the Aussie stays range-bound between 0.645-0.660. The Pound remains weak below 1.34, with risks of falling to 1.32 or lower. USDINR can rise towards 89.00-89.25 in the coming weeks.

Dollar Index (98.85) has been coming off, but immediate support is seen in the 98.80-98.50 region. As long as it stays above this zone, upside targets of 100/101 remain attainable in the near term.

EURUSD (1.1622) faces immediate resistance at 1.165 and higher at 1.17, from where a pullback toward 1.15 or even 1.14 looks likely in the medium term. There could be another scope of a broad range of 1.15-1.17 holding for some time.

EURINR (103.1217) has bounced from the support near 102.50 but a breach past 103.50 will be needed to heads towards 104-104.50. Else, the cross can fall back towards 102.50 or even lower.

EURJPY (175.68) might be headed toward support at 174, from where a bounce back can happen. As long as it stays above 174, targets of 178-180 can be tested in the medium term.

Dollar-Yen (151.06) turned lower from 152.61 itself. Still, the targets of 153-154 are kept open as long as the pair trades above 150.

USDCNY (7.1251) is expected to continue consolidating within a narrow range of 7.14-7.12 and a broader range of 7.15-7.12 for some time.

Aussie (0.6511) has recovered a bit from the low of 0.6440. Overall, the pair is likely to trade within the 0.645-0.660 range for a while before a breakout occurs.

Pound (1.3349) is nearing resistance at 1.34, which could be tested soon. Thereafter, If the resistance holds, a decline towards 1.32 or lower looks likely.

USDINR (88.7180) tested 88.80 yesterday. The view remains intact to see a a further move towards 89.00-89.25 in the near term.

The US Treasury yields have dipped. That keeps intact our view of seeing more fall. Resistance can cap the upside in case of any bounce. The German yields are at their support. We expect them to bounce back from here and rise going forward. The 10Yr GoI has dipped and is just above a key support. Failure to bounce back from here will negate the rise that we have been looking for. That in turn can take the yields lower.

The US 10Yr (4.02%) and 30Yr (4.62%) Treasury yields have dipped. The view of seeing a fall to 3.9%-3.85% (10Yr) and 4.55%-4.5% (30Yr) remains intact. Resistance at 4.1%-4.15% (10Yr and 4.7%-4.75% (30Yr) can cap the upside.

The German 10Yr (2.61%) and 30Yr (3.20%) yields are at their support. We expect them to bounce back from here towards 2.7% (10Yr) and 3.3% (30Yr) and higher from here.

The 10Yr GoI (6.5063%) has dipped. It has to sustain above 6.5% to keep alive the chances of the rise to 6.6% that we have been looking for. Else a fall to 6.45%-6.4% is possible.

Equities are looking mixed. The Dow has moved well and can test 46500-47000 while the Dax can head towards 25000 while above 24000. Nifty has fallen sharply and if it fails to hold above 25060, it can plunge back to 24800-24600 region. Nikkei could test 48000-48500 if the current rise sustains. Shanghai has declined sharply from 3900+ levels. Failure to see an immediate rebound can take it down to 3800-3750.

The Dow (46270.46, +0.44%) has moved up well from our expected 45500 level and could have scope to rise further towards 46500-47500 in the coming days. The view is bullish above 45500.

DAX (24236.94, -0.62%) can rise towards 25000 while above 24000. But there can be some chances of testing 23600 on the downside.

Nifty (25145.50, -0.32%) is headed towards key support at 25060 which if breaks on the downside, can open up chances of a fall to 24800-24600 region again.

Nikkei (47274.27, +0.91%) has risen and if the rise sustains in the near term, the index can move higher towards 48000-48500. Only a break below 47000, if seen, will open doors towards 46000.

Shanghai (3860.31, -0.13%) declined sharply from 3900+ levels seen yesterday. Unless it rises back above 3900, view can be bearish to 3800-3750 in the coming sessions.

Crude prices have reversed sharply lower, with Brent likely to fall further towards $ 61-60 while below $ 64/65, and WTI vulnerable to a drop towards $ 57-56 while below $ 60/61. Gold remains strong after hitting a new all-time high near $ 4190, with potential to rise towards $ 4250-4300 if it breaks above $ 4200. Silver also looks bullish despite a brief pullback, targeting $ 52-53 before any correction. Copper continues to trade weak and may stay range-bound between $ 4.9-5.2 for now. Natural Gas is approaching key support near $ 2.9, from where a bounce towards $ 3.1-3.2 is possible unless it breaks lower towards $ 2.8/2.7.

Brent ($ 62.23) has reversed sharply to a low of $ 61.50 yesterday, negating our earlier view of a rise. While below $ 64/65, it can decline further towards $ 61-60 in the near term.

WTI ($ 58.58) failed to rise as expected and instead fell sharply to test a low of $ 57.68 yesterday. While below $ 60/61, it can drop further towards $ 57-56 in the near term.

Gold ($ 4191.80) moved up as expected and tested a fresh all-time high of $ 4190 yesterday. A break above $ 4200 could open the way for a further rise towards $ 4250-4300 in the near term.

Silver ($ 51.16) surged to a high of $ 52.50 before falling back to close at $ 50.62 yesterday. The near-term outlook remains positive for a further rise towards $ 52-53 before any reversal sets in.

Copper ($ 5.0240) has fallen sharply again, contrary to expectations, testing a low of $ 4.93 yesterday. It may remain range-bound between $ 4.9-5.2 for some time before a breakout on either side occurs.

Natural Gas ($ 3.0150) continues to fall in line with our expectations and may soon test its immediate support near $ 2.9. If this support holds, a bounce back towards $ 3.1-3.2 is possible; otherwise, a break below could drag it further down towards $ 2.8/2.7.

GMT 1:30 IST 07:00 CN CPI (YoY)
…Expectations -0.2 …Previous -0.4

GMT 1:30 IST 07:00 CN PPI
…Expectations -2.3 …Previous -2.9

GMT 9:00 IST 14:30 EU Ind Prodn (MoM)
0.9 …Expectations -1.8 …Previous 0.3

GMT 9:30 IST 15:00 IN Trade bal
…Previous -26.5

GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US CPI (MoM)
…Previous 0.4

GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US Core CPI (MoM)
0.3 …Previous 0.3

DATA YESTERDAY
===============

GMT 6:00 IST 11:30 UK Unemp
4.6 …Expectations 4.7 …Previous 4.7 …Actual 4.8

GMT 6:30 IST 12:00 IN WPI
0.77 …Expectations 0.50 …Previous 0.52 …Actual 0.3

GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US Trade Balance
…Expectations -95.5 …Previous -78.3 …Actual