The Dollar Index needs to rebound from 98.60 toward 99.50 and above; otherwise, the fall could extend to 98.00–97.00. Euro is stuck within 1.1550-1.1650 region. EURINR can move towards 101.50-101.30 while it trades below 102.40. EURJPY & USDJPY can target 179 & 154 in the near term. USDCNY has slipped below 7.12, and price action around 7.10 needs close monitoring to determine whether the pair will consolidate within the 7.10–7.15 range or extend its fall toward 7.075. The Aussie is trading near the upper end of its 0.645-0.655 range. The Pound is nearing the support around 1.3300-1.3270. Need to see whether the pair bounces back from the support or extends the fall further. USDINR is trading near 87.78 on the NDF. The pair can limit the upside to 88.25 and is anticipated to fall towards 87.50-87.35 in the coming weeks.

Dollar Index (98.854) is approaching support near the 98.60 region, which could be tested soon. A rebound from this level, followed by a break above 99.50, would open the path toward 100–101. Else, failure to sustain above 98.60 may extend the fall toward 98.00–97.00.

EURUSD (1.1625) appears stuck between 1.1550-1.650 region. A break on the either side will be needed to get further directional clarity.

EURINR (102.1179) has immediate resistance coming around 102.40 and while it holds a pullback towards 101.50-101.30 can happen in the coming sessions.

EURJPY (177.94) & Dollar-Yen (152.96) have risen to 178.15 and 153.17 so far and have the scope to test 179 and 154 respectively before pausing.

USDCNY (7.1111) has slipped below its narrow 7.14–7.12 range. A break below 7.10 could drag it further down to 7.075, while a rebound may keep it consolidating within a broader 7.10–7.15 range for some time. Watch price action closely around current levels.

Aussie (0.6532) is trading near the upper end of its 0.645-0.655 range, a decisive break past which can open the doors for 0.66 and higher levels.

Pound (1.3322) is nearing the immediate support coming around 1.3300–1.3270. Whether this zone holds will determine if the Pound consolidates within the 1.33–1.35 range or extends its decline toward 1.31.

USDINR (87.7880) can cap the upside at 88.25 and fall towards 87.50-87.35 in the coming weeks.

The US Treasury yields have inched up slightly. The US CPI coming in lower than market expectation has increased the bets for a rate cut from the Fed this week. But that did not have any major impact on the yields. The US Headline CPI rose 3.02% (YoY) in September. This is higher than the previous reading of 2.94%, but lower than the market expectation of 3.1% and our expectation of 3.16%. The Yields have room to rise in the near term before reversing lower again. The German Yields have risen well. A further rise from here will reduce the chances of the fall that we have been expecting and can take the yields higher instead. The 10Yr GoI failed to sustain the bullish range breakout on Friday. That keeps the range intact. A sustained breakout is needed to take the yield higher.

The US 10Yr (4.02%) and 30Yr (4.60%) Treasury yields have inched slightly higher. We retain the view of seeing a rise to 4.05%-4.1% (10Yr) and 4.65% (30Yr) in the near term. Thereafter a reversal can drag the yields down to 3.9%-3.85% (10Yr) and 4. 5%-4.45% (30Yr) eventually.

The German 10Yr (2.62%) and 30Yr (3.20%) yields have risen well. If this sustains, then a further rise to 2.7% (10Yr) and 3.3% (30Yr) is possible. That will reduce the chances of seeing 2.5% (10Yr) and 3.07% (30Yr) on the downside that we have been expecting to happen first before a reversal.

The 10Yr GoI (6.5345%) broke 6.55% but did not sustain. A sustained rise above 6.55% is needed to go up to 6.6%. Else, the broader 6.45%-6.55% range can continue to remain intact.

The Dow and Dax are nearing short term resistances near 47500/600 and 25000/25200 respectively which if hold can produce a dip in the next few sessions. However, an upside break if seen can bring in fresh upmove. Nifty is seeing profit taking on the last 2 sessions and unless an immediate bounce is seen today, the index can be further dragged to 25600/500. Nikkei has risen back well. While the uptrend remains intact, the index can test 52000 soon. Shanghai is headed towards crucial resistance at 4000, a break past which if seen can take it towards 4200 eventually.

The Dow (47207.12, +1.01%) has risen sharply, well above 47000 but could be nearing a short term resistance at 47500-47600 from where a dip can be expected. A decisive break above 47500-48000, if seen would indicate fresh bullishness for the medium term.

DAX (24239.89, +0.13%) has also risen well and could face similar resistance near 25000-25200 region. Till then the index may continue to rise.

Nifty (25795.15, -0.37%) is seeing profit booking over the last 2 sessions after a decent rise earlier last week. Failure to bounce back immediately from current levels can drag the index lower towards 25600-25500.

Nikkei (50438.37, +2.31%) has bounced well. While the uptrend remains intact, Nikkei can soon reach 52000.

Shanghai (3979.56, +0.74%) has crucial resistance near 4000. A break past 4000, if seen and sustained, can open further chances for a rise towards 4200.

Crude prices are nearing key resistances at $ 68 (Brent) and $ 63 (WTI), respectively, from where short-term pullbacks to $ 65-64 and $ 60-59 are possible. Gold remains steady above $ 4000, likely consolidating between $ 4000-4200, while Silver holds firm within $ 47-50. Copper continues its bullish momentum, aiming for $ 5.30-5.35 after breaking higher, whereas Natural Gas stays weak below $ 3.50 with scope to fall further towards $ 3.00.

Brent ($ 66.18) can rise to test the immediate resistance near $ 68 in the near term, and if this resistance holds, a pullback towards $ 65-64 could be seen in the coming sessions.

WTI ($ 61.66) is facing immediate resistance near $ 63, which may be tested soon, and while this level holds, a dip towards $ 60-59 can occur in the near term.

Gold ($ 4090.20) is hovering above $ 4000, and while it stays above this level, a range of $ 4000-4200 may hold for some time.

Silver ($ 48.24) has held well above the support at $ 47, and as long as this holds, a range of $ 50-47 can persist for now.

Copper ($ 5.2020) has, as expected, broken out on the higher side of its range and tested a high of $ 5.2470. A further rise towards $ 5.30-5.35 looks possible in the near term.

Natural Gas ($ 3.30) tested a low of $ 3.20 in line with our expectations. While below $ 3.50, a further decline towards $ 3.00 can be seen in the near term.

GMT 8:00 IST 13:30 GER IFO Business Climate
86.6 …Previous 87.7

8:00 13:30 GER IFO Business Situations
84.8 …Previous 85.7

8:00 13:30 GER IFO Business Expectations
89.4 …Previous 89.7

12:30 18:00 US Durable Goods Orders
1.7 …Previous 2.9

DATA YESTERDAY
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GMT 23:05 IST 04:35 UK Cons Conf
-22 …Expectations -20 …Previous -19 …Actual -17

GMT 23:30 IST 05:00 JP CPI
2.6 …Expectations 2.9 …Previous 2.7 …Actual 2.8

GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US CPI (MoM)
0.2 …Expectations 0.3 …Previous 0.4 …Actual 0.3

GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US Core CPI (MoM)
0.3 …Expectations 0.3 …Previous 0.3 …Actual 0.2

GMT 14:00 IST 19:30 US New Home Sales
789 …Previous 800