The Dollar Index & Euro can trade within 99.50-98.50 & 1.1550-1.1700 region respectively for now. EURINR needs to rise past 103 to head towards 104, else it can trade within 102-103 region. EURJPY & USDJPY have inched lower and a break below 176 & 151 if seen can make the pairs vulnerable to extend the fall towards 170 and 150–148 respectively in the medium term. USDCNY is coming off and price action around 7.10 needs close monitoring to determine whether the pair will consolidate within the 7.10–7.15 range or extend its fall toward 7.075. The Aussie can extend the gains towards 0.665-0.670 as long as it stays above 0.655. The Pound needs to see an immediate rise past 1.3275, else any break below 1.325 can open the doors for 1.315 as well. USDINR can trade within 88.50-88.00 region for sometime. Watch out for the FOMC scheduled today.

Dollar Index (98.74) appears stuck within 99.50-98.50 region. A break on either side will be needed for further clarity. FOMC scheduled today might shed some light on where the DXY might be headed.

EURUSD (1.1646) faces immediate resistance between 1.1660 and 1.1700, and while below this zone, it is likely to trade within the 1.1570–1.1700 range for some time until a breakout occurs.

EURINR (102.7976) failed to sustain the rise above 103, which is needed to target 104 or higher. While the EURINR remains below 103, it is likely to trade within the 102–103 range.

EURJPY (177.02) & Dollar-Yen (152.02) appear to have peaked near 178.23 and 153.24, and a break below 176 and 151 could confirm a downtrend, thereby dragging them toward 170 and 150–148 respectively in the medium term.

USDCNY (7.1018) can extend the fall towards the deeper support at 7.075 on a confirmed break below 7.10. Only an immediate rebound from current levels may allow consolidation within the broader 7.10–7.15 range for now. Watch price action closely around current levels.

Aussie (0.6592) tested our initial target of 0.66 before declining a bit from there. Still, while the pair sustains above 0.655, a further rise to 0.665 or even 0.670 looks possible in the near term. Overall, downside can be limited to 0.645.

Pound (1.3258) slipped slightly below support at 1.3275, and if it fails to rebound and breaks below 1.325, it could fall toward deeper support near 1.3150, negating the expected rise toward 1.35.

USDINR (88.2040) observed the high of 88.4025 before cooling down a bit. Overall, the USDINR can trade within the 88.50–88.00 range for the next few sessions before a breakout occurs on either side.

The US Treasury yields remain stable ahead of the US Federal Reserve meeting tonight. There is room to fall from here in the near-term before a reversal happens. A 25-bps rate cut is broadly priced in the market already. We will have to wait and watch. The German yields sustain higher but stable. A strong rise is needed from here immediately to avoid a fall. The 10Yr GoI continues to hover near the upper end of the range. It seems like the yield is lacking strength. So, a dip within the range looks more likely.

The US 10Yr (3.98%) and 30Yr (4.54%) Treasury yields remain stable. A fall to 3.9%-3.85% (10Yr) and 4. 5%-4.45% (30Yr) is more likely to be seen first before a strong reversal happens. Resistance at 4.05%-4.1% (10Yr) and 4.65% (30Yr) can cap the upside.

The German 10Yr (2.62%) and 30Yr (3.19%) yields sustain higher but are stable. A strong rise from here is needed to negate the fall to 2.5% (10Yr) and 3.07% (30Yr) first. Else the rise to 2.7% (10Yr) and 3.3% (30Yr) can happen straight away.

The 10Yr GoI (6.5368%) continues to hover near the upper end of the 6.45%-6.55% range. It looks like there is lack of strength to break the range. That keeps the chances high of seeing a dip within the range. A decisive break above 6.55% is needed to see a rise to 6.6%.

The Dow has risen well ahead of the FED policy meeting where markets expect another rate cut by 25bps. Dax has dipped yesterday but could rise back to face rejection from resistance at 25000-25200. Asia-Pac is mixed. Nifty declined yesterday as profit taking seems to be in place. However, eventual rise above 26000 can take it towards 27000. Nikkei is headed towards 52000 while Shanghai is trading just at the crucial resistance at 4000, a sustained break past which is needed to rally towards 4200 eventually.

The Dow (47706.37, +0.34%) has risen well and is now expected to test 48000 before a small dip ca be seen.

DAX (24278.63, -0.12%) has dipped slightly but could have scope to test resistance near 25000-25200 region from where a further decline can be expected.

Nifty (25936.20, -0.11%) traded flat yesterday coming off by around 30points. However, a break past 26000 is needed for further bullishness towards 27000 else we may expect a decline from current levels itself.

Nikkei (51124.53, +1.80%) has risen well as expected and is headed towards 52000.

Shanghai (3992.68, +0.11%) is trading flat just below the 4000 level. A sustained break on the upside is needed for the index to turn bullish for the medium term towards 4200.

Crude prices extended their fall weighed down by persistent concerns over a global oil surplus and continue to decline in the near term. Gold broke below $ 4000 and tumbled to $ 3901.30, keeping the short-term view bearish towards $ 3850-3800. Silver also weakened, staying vulnerable below $ 48 with potential declines towards $ 45-44. Copper remained range-bound between $ 5.20-5.10, awaiting a breakout for direction, while Natural Gas continued to slide, heading towards $ 3.70-3.60 in the near term.

Brent ($ 64.47) has fallen below $ 65 and tested a low of $ 64 yesterday amid persistent concerns about a global oil surplus. A further decline towards $ 63 can be seen in the near term.

WTI ($ 60.20) has fallen in line with our expectations and may soon test $ 59 on the downside.

Gold ($ 3975.60) has broken below $ 4000 and plunged to a low of $ 3901.30 yesterday. A further fall towards $ 3850-3800 is possible in the coming weeks. The near-term outlook remains bearish unless a sharp reversal occurs.

Silver ($ 47.47) fell sharply again, testing a low of $ 45.51 before bouncing back to close higher at $ 47.32 yesterday. While below $ 48, the downside bias remains intact, targeting $ 45-44 in the coming weeks.

Copper ($ 5.1590) continues to trade within a narrow range of $ 5.20-5.10 and needs a sustained breakout on either side for clearer direction. Our preferred view is a break on the upside.

Natural Gas ($ 3.81) has dropped back to a low of $ 3.8180 yesterday as expected and can extend its fall towards $ 3.70-3.60 in the near term.

GMT 0:30 IST 06:00 AU CPI
…Expectations 3.0 …Previous 2.1

GMT 13:45 IST 19:15 BOC Meeting
…Expectations 2.25 …Previous 2.50

GMT 18:00 IST 23:30 US FOMC Meeting
…Expectations <4.00 ...Previous <4.25
DATA YESTERDAY
================

GMT 12:00 IST 17:30 IN IIP
3.8 …Expectations 5.0 …Previous 4.1 …Actual 4.0

GMT 13:00 IST 18:30 US Case Schiller
1.6 …Expectations 1.9 …Previous 1.8 …Actual 1.6

GMT 14:00 IST 19:30 US Cons Conf
96.7 …Expectations 93.9 …Previous 94.2 …Actual 94.6