The Dollar Index can head toward 100-101 if the rise sustains above 99.50-99.0. While Euro remain vulnerable to fall towards 1.15-1.14 while it trades below 1.1650. EURINR continues to trade within 103-102 region. EURJPY & USDJPY have immediate support below current levels. Need to see whether the support hold and rebound occurs or the fall gets extended further. USDCNY looks bearish towards 7.075 while it trades below 7.125. The Aussie can test the support near 0.6520 or even 0.645 if the fall extends further. The Pound needs to bounce from the support near 1.3140. Else, a breach below 1.3140 can drag it towards 1.28 in the medium term. USDINR can extend the rise towards 89.00-89.30 on a break past 88.80 before eventually coming down.

Dollar Index (99.806) has moved up further and the rise can get extended toward 100.50-101.00 while it trades above 99.50-99.0.

EURUSD (1.1526) remains vulnerable to fall toward 1.15–1.14 but as long as it remains below 1.160–1.1650.

EURINR (102.4043) is holding the 103-102 range quite well for now. A confirmed break below 102 if seen can open the doors for 101-100 levels.

EURJPY (177.64) has slightly inched lower. Any break below 177 could drag it further down to the 176-175 initially, before it attempts to rebound towards 178 and above.

Dollar-Yen (154.06) has immediate support just below current levels and lower near 153 region. While this support holds, the pair can move higher. However, a confirmed break above 154.50-155.00 will be necessary to target higher levels.

USDCNY (7.1155) is currently trading near the lower end of the 7.15-7.10 range. As long as it remains below 7.125, the overall outlook appears bearish with a target of 7.075. A break below 7.10 will further confirm the downtrend.

Aussie (0.6549) has been coming off since the last few sessions and the interim support around the 0.6520 level, with deeper support near 0.6450 could get tested if the fall continues.

Pound (1.3141) is hovering near the support coming at 1.3140. Failing to see an immediate bounce from current levels can turn the outlook bearish, thereby targeting 1.28 in the medium term. Watch price action closely.

USDINR (88.7050) tested the high of 88.78 on Friday. A breach above 88.80 could push the pair higher to the 89.00-89.30 levels in the near term before it eventually comes down.

The US Treasury yields remain higher. The yields have to breach their immediate resistance to rise further from here itself. Else one more leg of fall will still be possible before a reversal happens. The German yields remain higher and stable. They have room to rise to test their resistance and then reverse lower again. The 10Yr GoI has come down sharply. Failure to rise back immediately can take it further lower.

The US 10Yr (4.08%) and 30Yr (4.65%) Treasury yields remain higher. We reiterate that a decisive break above 4.1% (10Yr) and 4.65% (30Yr) can take the yields up to 4.2%-4.3% (10Yr) and 4.8%-4.85% (30Yr) straight away. Else, one more leg of fall to 3.9%-3.85% (10Yr) and 4. 5%-4.45% (30Yr) will still be possible before a reversal happens.

The German 10Yr (2.63%) and 30Yr (3.21%) yields remain stable. The yields can test 2.7% (10Yr) and 3.25% (30Yr) and then reverse lower towards 2.5% (10Yr) and 3.07% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.5317%) has come down sharply from 6.5964%. Failure to rise back above 6.55% can take it down to 6.5%-6.48%.

The Dow and DAX have closed on a positive note last week but both indices will have to remain above 47500 and 23900 respectively to hold the upmove intact from here else can have scope to decline to 47000-46500 and 23800 respectively. Nikkei has surged well above 52000 and could be headed towards 53000-54000 soon. Nifty has dipped below the crucial support at 25800. Unless an immediate bounce is seen, Nifty can continue its fall to 25600/25400 soon. Shanghai needs to hold above 3900 to trade within 3900-4000. A brek below 3900, if seen can take it lower towards 3850-3800.

The Dow (47562.87, +0.086%) needs to necessarily bounce and trade above 47500 to prevent further decline towards 47000-46500.

DAX (23958.30, -0.67%) has support near 23900 which if holds can produce a rebound towards 24000 and higher in the near term. Failure to hold above 23900 can take it to 23800-23600.

Nifty (25722.10, -0.60%) declined below the earlier resistance turned support at 25800 and if it does not bounce back immediately from current levels, it can dip further to 25600-25400 before pausing.

Nikkei (52411.34, +2.12%) has been in a strong uptrend. Breaking well above our expectations of testing 52000, the index could be headed towards 53000-54000 soon.

Shanghai (3939.88, -0.38%) closed in the negative last week. If 3900 holds,we may expect a bounce back to 4000, else the index can be dragged lower towards 3850-3800 soon.

Crude prices have rebounded slightly, supported by geopolitical tensions, but remain weak below $ 66 (Brent) and $ 62 (WTI) with risks of further decline. Gold and Silver extended their corrections, staying bearish below $ 4100 and $ 50 respectively. Copper remains range-bound between $ 5.20-$ 5.00. Natural Gas continues to strengthen, targeting $ 4.20 in the near term.

Brent ($ 64.97) has bounced back on reports that the US plans military strikes on OPEC producer Venezuela. As long as it holds below $ 66, it remains vulnerable to a fall towards $ 64-63 in the near term.

WTI ($ 61.17) has also bounced back, but while it stays below $ 62, we retain our view of a decline towards $ 60-59 in the near term.

Gold ($ 4003.30) dipped back on Friday in line with our expectation after testing a high of $ 4059. While below $ 4100, the near-term view remains weak for a fall towards $ 3850-3800.

Silver ($ 48.23) has fallen back as expected, and while it stays below $ 50, we maintain our view of a decline towards $ 46-44 in the coming weeks.

Copper ($ 5.0880) remains weak and is likely to trade within a range of $ 5.20-5.00 for some time.

Natural Gas ($ 4.1030) is moving up in line with our expectation and can rise towards $ 4.15-4.20 in the near term.

GMT 1:45 IST 07:15 CN PMI
51.6 …Expectation 49.7 …Previous 51.2

GMT 5:00 IST 10:30 IN Manufacturing PMI
57.1 …Previous 57.7

GMT 7:30 IST 13:00 CH CPI
0.0 …Previous 0.3

GMT 8:30 IST 14:00 CH PMI
49.9 …Previous 46.3

GMT 9:00 IST 14:30 EU PMI
49.2 …Previous 49.8

GMT 9:30 IST 15:00 UK PMI
45.1 …Previous 46.2

GMT 14:30 IST 20:00 CA PMI
47.7 …Previous 47.7

GMT 15:00 IST 20:30 US Manufacturing ISM
50.2 …Previous 49.1

DATA LAST FRIDAY
================
GMT 23:30 IST 05:00 JP Unemp
2.5 …Expectations 2.5 …Previous 2.6 …Actual 2.6

GMT 9:00 IST 14:30 EU Flash CPI (YoY)
2.5 …Expectations 2.1 …Previous 2.2 …Actual 2.1

GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US Personal Income
0.5 …Expectations 0.4 …Previous 0.4 …Actual

GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US PCE M/M
0.4 …Expectations 0.4 …Previous 0.2 …Actual

{GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US Core PCE
0.4 …Expectations 0.4 …Previous 0.2 …Actual

{GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 CA GDP
…Expectations 0.0 …Previous 0.2 …Actual -0.3