The Dollar Index & Euro can move towards 101 & 1.14 respectively. EURINR continues to trade within 103-102 region. EURJPY is stuck between 179-177 region. The USDJPY can extend the ongoing rise to 156 or even 158 on a confirmed rise past 155. Immediate support at 154. USDCNY is holding the 7.10-7.15 range quite well for now. The Aussie can fall within its 0.660-0.645 range. The Pound has dipped below 1.3140 and failing to see an immediate bounce from current levels can drag it toward 1.28 in the medium term. USDINR need to see a break above 88.85 to rise towards 89.00-89.30.

Dollar Index (99.959) met our initial target of 100 and if sustained, can extend the ongoing rise towards 101.00 as well in the near term.

EURUSD (1.1508) is slowly inching lower and the target of 1.14 can get tested while it trades below 1.16.

EURINR (102.1219) is trading near the lower end of its 103-102 range. A confirmed break below 102 if seen can open the doors for 101-100 levels.

EURJPY (177.49) is consolidating between 179-177 since the last few sessions. Any break below 177 if seen could drag the EURJPY further down to the 176-175 initially, before it attempts to rebound towards 178 and above. Immediate resistance is coming around 179-180 which can cap the upside for now.

Dollar-Yen (154.35) looks stable above 154 for now. As long as the the resistance turned support near 154 holds, the USDJPY has a scope to move toward 156 or even 158 on a confirmed break past 155.

USDCNY (7.1239) has slightly breached resistance near the 7.1230 region. If the USDCNY rises past 7.125, it could move higher within the 7.10–7.15 range. For now, the target of 7.075 remains open until further clarity emerges.

Aussie (0.6529) can extend the fall within its 0.660-0.645 range which is likely to persist in the near term.

Pound (1.3122) has slipped below 1.3140, and a sustained move below 1.31 could push it down to 1.28 in the medium term. Only a immediate rise past 1.3140-1.3150 if seen can negate the anticipated fall.

USDINR (88.7430) tested a high of 88.80 yesterday. A sustained break above 88.85 could push the pair higher to the 89.00-89.25 region. Conversely, failing to rise above 88.85 may result in a pullback towards 88.50-88.25 from current levels.

The US Treasury yields have risen above their intermediate resistance. That opens the door to see more rise from here itself without seeing another leg of fall. The German yields are going up as expected to test their resistance. They can reverse lower and fall back after testing the resistance. The 10Yr GoI failed to sustain the intraday rise yesterday. That keeps the chances alive of seeing a dip in the coming days.

The US 10Yr (4.11%) and 30Yr (4.69%) Treasury yields have risen above their resistance. While this sustains, a further rise to 4.2% (10Yr) and 4.8% (30Yr) is possible. This will give a sign of a reversal within seeing another leg of fall to 3.9%-3.85% (10Yr) and 4. 5%-4.45% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (2.66%) and 30Yr (3.25%) yields are moving up as expected to test their resistance 2.7% (10Yr) and 3.3% (30Yr). They can reverse lower thereafter and fall back to 2.5% (10Yr) and 3.1% (30Yr) eventually.

The 10Yr GoI (6.5343%) failed to sustain the intraday break above 6.55%. That keeps the downside open to see 6.5%-6.48%.

The Dow closed slightly on a negative note while DAX moved up. The Dow needs to break past 47500 to avoid a dip to 47000-46000 while the Dax needs to break above 24250-24300 to rise further towards 24600-24800. Nifty has also bounced well yesterday and if it breaks above 25800 today, it can rally towards 26000 or higher soon. Nikkei continues its uptrend targeting 53000-54000. Shanghai trades flat. It is likely to trade within the 3900-4000 region for the near term.

The Dow (47336.68, -0.48%) trades below 47500 just now but it will have to rebound and break higher else can decline towards 47000-46500.

DAX (24132.41, +0.73%) has bounced well from 23982.28. A break past 24250-24300 will help the index to move higher towards 24600-24800.

Nifty (25763.35, +0.16%) tested 25646 yesterday but managed to rise to close slightly higher. If the bounce continues, it may break past 25800 to move further up today. Above 25800, we may expect a medium term uptrend towards 26000-27000 eventually.

Nikkei (52570.52, +0.30%) continues to rally. The uptrend looks strong with a possible target of 53000-540000 to be tested soon.

Shanghai (3976.39, -0.0032%) is trading flat. We may expect an immediate range of 4000-3900 to hold for the near term.

Crude prices continue to weaken as expected. Gold is holding steady near $ 4000 and may remain range-bound between $ 3900-4100 until a clear breakout occurs. Silver continues its slide with potential to test $ 46-44 soon. Copper stays confined within $ 5.20-5.00, showing no decisive move yet. Natural Gas, however, has surged sharply on expectations of a colder US winter and could rise further towards $ 4.40-4.50 in the near term.

Brent ($ 64.73) has fallen in line with our expectations, and while it holds below $ 66, the outlook remains intact for a decline towards $ 64-63 in the near term.

WTI ($ 60.90) continues to fall as expected and can extend its decline further towards $ 60-59 in the near term.

Gold ($ 3989.60) is hovering near $ 4000. While above $ 3900, a range of $ 3900-4100 may hold for some time until a breakout on either side provides directional clarity.

Silver ($ 47.71) continues to fall as expected and could soon target $ 46-44 on the downside.

Copper ($ 5.0285) has dipped further within the range of $ 5.20-5.00 and may continue to trade sideways in this range until further directional clarity emerges.

Natural Gas ($ 4.2360) has moved sharply higher, driven by expectations of an early cold winter in the US, and could continue rising towards $ 4.40-4.50 in the near term.

GMT 0:30 IST 06:00 JP PMI
49.0 …Expectation 48.3 …Previous 48.5

GMT 3:30 IST 09:00 RBA Meeting
…Expectation 3.6 …Previous 3.6

GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 US Trade Balance
…Expectation -60.4 …Previous -78.3

DATA YESTERDAY
================

GMT 1:45 IST 07:15 CN PMI
51.6 …Expectation 49.7 …Previous 51.2 …Actual 50.6

GMT 5:00 IST 10:30 IN Manufacturing PMI
58.7 …Expectation 58.4 …Previous 57.7 …Actual 59.2

GMT 7:30 IST 13:00 CH CPI
0.0 …Expectations -0.1 …Previous 0.3 …Actual 0.1

GMT 8:30 IST 14:00 CH PMI
49.9 …Expectations 47.7 …Previous 46.3 …Actual 48.2

GMT 9:00 IST 14:30 EU PMI
49.2 …Expectations 50 …Previous 49.8 …Actual 50

GMT 9:30 IST 15:00 UK PMI
45.1 …Expectations 49.6 …Previous 46.2 …Actual 49.7

GMT 14:30 IST 20:00 CA PMI
47.7 …Previous 47.7 …Actual 49.6

GMT 15:00 IST 20:30 US Manufacturing ISM
50.2 …Previous 49.1 …Actual 48.7