The Dollar Index and Euro can test targets of 101 and 1.140–1.135 respectively. EURINR appears bearish toward 101.50–101.00 while trading below 102.50. EURJPY and USDJPY have scope to rise towards 178-180 & 154-155 in the near term. USDCNY can continue to trade within 7.10-7.15 region. The Aussie is maintaining the 0.645–0.660 range. The Pound has dipped below 1.3140 and if sustained, could fall toward 1.28 in the medium term. USDINR remained closed yesterday on the account of Guru Nanak Jayanti.

Dollar Index (99.806) observed the high of 99.50 before declining a bit. Still, the target of 101 can get tested while the index trades above 99.50.

EURUSD (1.1508) and EURINR (101.9817) are attempting to rise back but the overall view appears bearish toward 1.140-1.135 & 101.50-101.00 in the near term while both the pairs trade below 1.16 & 102.50 respectively.

EURJPY (177.06) as cautioned tested the low of 175.70 before rebounding later. While above 176, the EURJPY can attempt to rise back towards 178-180 in the coming sessions.

Dollar-Yen (153.84) initially slipped to the low of 152.95 but later recovered as well. The ongoing rise can get extended to the resistance coming at 154-155, while the pair sustains above 153. Thereafter, whether the resistance holds or the rise gets extended further will have to be seen.

USDCNY (7.1220) can continue to consolidate between 7.10-7.14/15 region for some time before a breakout occurs on either side.

Aussie (0.6512) has bounced from the low of 0.6458 thereby keeping the 0.645-0.660 range intact for now.

Pound (1.3061) slipped below 1.3150 and tested 1.3010 before recovering slightly. As long as the support-turned-resistance at 1.315 holds, the pair remains vulnerable to extend the fall toward the deeper support at 1.28 in the medium term.

USDINR (88.5940) remained closed yesterday. On the NDF it is currently trading near 88.60 and a pullback towards 88.50-88.25 could be witnessed while the pair trades below 88.85.

The US Treasury yields are going up in line with our expectation. The yields can rise more from here to test their resistance after which a corrective dip is possible. The German Yields sustain higher. There is limited room on the upside. Resistance ahead can cap the upside and drag the yields lower eventually. The 10Yr GoI has bounced well from its low on Tuesday. But while below its immediate resistance, there are chances to see a dip again.

The US 10Yr (4.15%) and 30Yr (4.73%) Treasury yields are moving up towards 4.2% (10Yr) and 4.8% (30Yr) in line with our expectation. A corrective dip to 4.1%b (10Yr) and 4,7% (30Yr) is a possibility thereafter.

The German 10Yr (2.67%) and 30Yr (3.26%) yields sustain higher. There is room to test 2.7% (10Yr) and 3.3% (30Yr). Thereafter the yields can reverse lower and fall back to 2.5% (10Yr) and 3.1% (30Yr) eventually.

The 10Yr GoI (6.5279%) fell to a low of 6.5106% and has bounced back. While below 6.55%, the yield can remain lower and test 6.5%-6.48% on the downside.

The Dow and Dax have risen in the latest session but could have room for a test of 46500 and 23500 before moving up towards 48000 and 24500 respectively. Nifty fell as expected. It can test support at 25400 before rising towards 25800 gradually. Nikkei saw profit taking in the last two sessions but has risen today. While above 48000, Nikkei can retest 52000-54000 in the coming weeks.  Shanghai trades slightly in the positive. It is likely to trade within the 3900-4000 region for the near term.

The Dow (47311, +0.48%) has bounced well but could have room to test 46500 before a sharp bounce back to 48000 or higher is seen.

DAX (24049.74, +0.42%) has risen too but has room to test 23500 before moving up eventually towards 24500.

Nifty (25597.65, +0.64%) fell on Tuesday as anticipated. A test of support at 25400 looks possible before a rebound is seen from there eventually back towards 25600/800 and higher.

Nikkei (50854.83, +1.28%) saw profit taking in the last 2 sessions but has recovered a bit today. While above crucial support at 48000, Nikkei is likely to rebound again towards 52000-54000 in the coming weeks.

Shanghai (3969.25, +0.23%) has moved up slightly. We may continue to look for a trade range of 4000-3900 for the near term.

Crude prices fell sharply as Brent dropped to $ 63.44 and WTI to $ 59.62 after higher EIA inventories, keeping the outlook weak towards $ 63-62 and $ 59-58. Gold rebounded from $ 3935.70 and may stay within $ 3900-4100, while Silver’s bounce to $ 48 needs a break above for $ 50-52, else it risks for a fall towards $ 45-44. Copper held support at $ 4.88 and could rise to $ 5.10-5.20 within a $ 5.20-4.90 range. Natural Gas steadied near $ 4.20 and may head towards $ 4.40-4.50 while above $ 4.00.

Brent ($ 63.54) fell sharply to a low of $ 63.44 yesterday, in line with our expectations, after weekly EIA crude supplies unexpectedly increased. A further decline towards $ 63-62 can be seen in the coming sessions.

WTI ($ 59.62) continued to fall in line with our expectations and may decline further towards $ 59-58 in the near term.

Gold ($ 3984.60) bounced back from a low of $ 3935.70 yesterday. While above $ 3900, a range of $ 3900-4100 is likely to hold for some time.

Silver ($ 47.70) tested a low of $ 46.52 and bounced back to close at $ 48 yesterday. A sustained break above $ 48 is needed for a move higher towards $ 50-52, else it remains vulnerable to a fall towards $ 45-44 in the near term.

Copper ($ 4.9895) fell sharply to test support near $ 4.88 yesterday, and while above this level, it can bounce back towards $ 5.10-5.20 in the near term, keeping a range of $ 5.20-4.90 for a couple of weeks.

Natural Gas ($ 4.26) reversed to $ 4.20 yesterday, but while it holds above $ 4.00, we retain our view of a rise towards $ 4.40-4.50 in the coming weeks.

GMT 0:30 IST 06:00 Australia Trade Balance A$ Bln
…Expectations 3.9 …Previous 1.8

GMT 5:00 IST 10:30 IN Services PMI
60.1 …Expectation 59.9 …Previous 60.9

GMT 10:00 IST 15:30 EU Retail Sales %
0.4 …Expectation 0.2 …Previous 0.1

GMT 12:00 IST 17:30 BOE Mtg %
…Expectations 4.0 …Previous 4.0

GMT 12:00 IST 17:30 UK BOE Minutes
…Expectations 0-1-8 …Previous 0-2-7

DATA YESTERDAY
================
GMT 22:30 IST 04:00 AU PMI
-10.4 …Previous -13.2 …Actual -22.0

GMT 13:15 IST 18:45 US ADP Emp
-52.5 …Expectation 28.0 …Previous -32.0 …Actual 42