The US government shutdown has effectively ended as of 12-Nov-25 after 43 days of closure. The Dollar Index needs to rise past 100 to head towards 101. Else, a break below 99 can negate the anticipated rise and extend the fall towards 98. The Euro & EURINR looks stable below 1.16 & 103 for now. The targets of 1.14 & 101.50-101.00 are kept alive for now until further clarity. EURJPY can test 180 soon. While USDJPY met our target of 155 and now a sustained move above 155 will be needed to head towards 156-158. Else, a pullback towards 154-152 looks likely. USDCNY continues to trade within 7.15-7.10 region. The Aussie is trading higher within its 0.645-0.660 range. Pound has slipped below 1.3140 and can target 1.30 in the near term. USDINR is holding the 88.50-88.85 region for now.

Dollar Index (99.48) is hovering near the support around 99.45 level. The DXY needs to see a follow through rise above 100 to move toward 101. Otherwise, a break below 99 would suggest that the index has already peaked at 100.36 and could decline further toward 98.

EURUSD (1.1588) and EURINR (102.6942) need to see a confirmed break past 1.16 & 103 region to negate the bearish bias towards 1.140-1.135 & 101.50-101.00 respectively. For now, the targets are kept open until further clarity.

EURJPY (177.77) can test our target of 180 soon. Thereafter, whether the ongoing rise gets extended to 182 or a pullback is seen from 180 will have to be seen.

Dollar-Yen (154.77) met our target of 155 before declining a bit. Now, a sustained move above 155 will be needed to bring 156-158 into picture. Else, if the resistance at 155 holds, the pair can witness a fall toward 154-152 in the near term. Watch price action closely.

USDCNY (7.1112) continues to trade lower within its 7.15-7.10 range which is likely to persist for some time.

Aussie (0.6560) is moving toward the upper end of its 0.645-0.660 range. An interim resistance can be seen at 0.6580 and higher at 0.6650 which can cap the overall upside.

Pound (1.3121) has slipped below 1.3140 and if sustained, can test our previously mentioned target of 1.30 in the coming sessions.

USDINR (88.6040) can trade within an immediate range of 88.50–88.85 for now before a breakout occurs on either side. A break below 88.50 will be needed to bring 88.30–88.25 into picture.

The US Treasury yields dipped within the range and then has risen back. The sideways range remains intact, and the yields can continue to oscillate within it. The German yields have dipped further. The view is bearish to see more fall from here. The 10Yr GoI can continue to oscillate within its sideways range.

The US 10Yr (4.07%) and 30Yr (4.67%) Treasury yields have risen back after a short-lived fall within the range. The 4.05%-4.15% (10Yr) and 4.6%-4.75% (30Yr) range remains intact. We expect to see a bullish breakout and a rise to 4.2% (10Yr) and 4.8% (30Yr) eventually.

The German 10Yr (2.64%) and 30Yr (3.23%) yields have come down further. The reversal from the resistance at 2.7% (10Yr) and 3.3% (30Yr) is working out well. Our bearish view of seeing a fall back to 2.5% (10Yr) and 3.1% (30Yr) remains intact.

The 10Yr GoI (6.4955%) hovers around 6.5%. A rise above 6.53% is needed to go up to 6.55%. Else the danger of breaking 6.48% and a fall to 6.45% will remain alive.

The Dow and Dax have risen and could be headed towards 49000 and 24500-25000. Nifty has risen on optimism over US-India trade deal. The index has risen above 25800 and could be headed towards 26000 soon. Nikkei is headed towards 52000 with downside limited to 49000 in the near term. Shanghai can trade within 4050-3950 for the near term.

The Dow (48254.82, +0.68%) continues to rally, breaking above our expected resistance near 48000. While above 48000, a slow rise to 49000 can be seen.

DAX (24381.46, +1.22%) is rising as expected and could be headed towards 24500-25000 in the coming days.

Nifty (25875.80 +0.70%) has risen above 25800 contrary to our expectations of seeing a slight dip. The rise has been triggered by optimism on the US-India trade deal and resolution of the US government shutdown. While above 25800, the view is bullish to 26000.

Nikkei (51214.56, +0.30%) is rising again today. A slow rise towards 52000 looks possible in the near term with downside limited to 49000.

Shanghai (4008.62, +0.21%) is holding steady above 4000. There is a decent near term resistance near 4050 below which the index can trade within 4050-3950 region.

Crude prices have dropped sharply, with Brent slipping to $ 62.56 and WTI hitting $ 58.30, and both can extend lower towards $ 61-60 and $ 57-56 as supply concerns build. Gold is steadily climbing towards $ 4200-4250, while Silver looks ready for a stronger move if it clears $ 53.77, which can open a rise to $ 54.50-55.50, though failure can pull it back to $ 52-50. Copper is expected to stay within $ 5.20-4.90 for now, and Natural Gas needs a break above $ 4.60 to push towards $ 4.70-4.80.

Brent ($ 62.69) has dropped sharply to a low of $ 62.56 as expected. Fresh signs of a global supply glut hit prices after OPEC said the surplus arrived sooner than anticipated. A further slide towards $ 61-60 looks likely in the coming sessions.

WTI ($ 58.35) fell as expected, touching a low of $ 58.30 yesterday. The near-term outlook stays weak, with room for a drop towards $ 57-56.

Gold ($ 4189.60) continues to move higher in line with our view and can extend the rise towards $ 4200-4250 in the near term.

Silver ($ 53.30) has outperformed expectations and jumped to a high of $ 53.63 yesterday. It must break above the previous high of $ 53.77 to turn decisively bullish towards $ 54.50-55.50 in the coming weeks. Failure to clear this resistance can pull it back towards $ 52-50.

Copper ($ 5.1045) may continue to trade within the broader $ 5.20-4.90 range for a while.

Natural Gas ($ 4.5310) is hovering below $ 4.60, and a sustained break above this level can lift it towards $ 4.70-4.80 in the coming weeks.

GMT 0:30 IST 06:00 Australia Labour Force
…Expectation 20.3 …Previous 14.9

GMT 7:00 IST 12:30 UK Trade Bal
…Expectation -20.8 …Previous -21.2

GMT 10:00 IST 15:30 EU Ind Prodn
-1.3 …Expectation 0.8 …Previous -1.2

GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 US CPI
…Expectation 0.2 …Previous 0.3

GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 US Core CPI
…Expectation 0.3 …Previous 0.2

DATA YESTERDAY
================
GMT 12:00 IST 17:30 IN CPI
1.67 …Expectation 0.48 …Previous 1.44 …Actual 0.25