The Dollar Index has slipped below 99.45 and can drift towards 99-98, while EURUSD is inching higher with room to test 1.17-1.1735 before a medium-term pullback. EURINR looks firm above 102.50 and may rise to 104.5, and EURJPY is testing resistance at 180 where rejection can send it towards 178-176 unless a sustained break pushes it to 182-184. Dollar-Yen sits in a tight 155-154 band that could trigger a move to either 156-158 or 152 once broken. USDCNY is holding support near 7.0950 with a chance of a bounce, Aussie remains capped at 0.6580 within its range, Pound stays vulnerable to 1.30 while below 1.3250, and USDINR continues to trade inside 88.50-88.85 with downside opening only on a break below 88.50.

Dollar Index (99.203) has broken below the support near 99.45 mentioned yesterday. While below 99.45, there is fair scope for a dip towards 99-98 in the near term.

EURUSD (1.1635) has been slowly moving up over the past few sessions. A further rise to 1.17-1.1735 looks possible before declining from there in the medium term.

EURINR (103.3164) is holding well above the support at 102.50 and has scope to rise to 104.5 before pausing the current upmove.

EURJPY (179.76) has risen to test crucial resistance near 180 which if holds can pull the cross down towards 178-176 in the medium term. A rise past 180, if seen and sustained can be further bullish towards 182-184. Watch price action at 180.

Dollar-Yen (154.56) is trading within a crucial 155-154 zone where both levels are important resistance and support levels. A break on either side will bring in 156-158 or 152 as the next target level. Watch price action to see which side the pair would move.

USDCNY (7.0951) has dropped sharply to test support near 7.0950. If this level holds, it can rebound towards 7.1050-7.11, but a break lower can pull the pair down to 7.08-7.0750.

Aussie (0.6548) rose to test the expected resistance at 0.6580 yesterday and then closed lower at 0.6527. As long as this resistance holds, the pair may stay within the 0.6580-0.6500 range for a while.

Pound (1.3150) climbed to a high of 1.3215 yesterday against expectations. While resistance at 1.3250 holds, the downside target of 1.30 remains intact for the coming weeks.

USDINR (88.7670) is still trading within the 88.50-88.85 range until a breakout occurs. A break below 88.50 will open the path towards 88.30-88.25.

The US Treasury yields are continuing to move up and have come close to the upper end of their range. We will have to wait and see if the expected bullish breakout is happening now or not. The German yields have also risen back sharply and are just below their key resistance. A strong break above this resistance will negate our earlier bearish view. The 10Yr GoI is holding well above its support and can rise more from here.

The US 10Yr (4.12%) and 30Yr (4.71%) Treasury yields have seen a strong follow-through rise. They are now near the upper end of their 4.05%-4.15% (10Yr) and 4.6%-4.75% (30Yr) range. We expect a bullish range breakout and a rise to 4.2% (10Yr) and 4.8% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (2.69%) and 30Yr (3.28%) yields have risen back sharply. Need to see if the yields can get a sustained rise above 2.7% (10Yr) and 3.3% (30Yr) and negate our bearish view of seeing a fall to 2.5% (10Yr) and 3.1% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.5161%) is holding well above 6.5% and attempting to rise. A break above 6.53% can take it higher to 6.55% and 6.6%. It will negate the fall below 6.48% that we had cautioned a couple of days ago.

Most indices have declined on the ending of the longest ever US government shutdown as now concerns look around the FED’s rate cut decision for Dec-25. The Dow and DAX have scope to test 47000 and 24000-23500 before bouncing back in the medium term. Nifty ended in the positive yesterday and could test 26000 before declining from there. Nikkei and Shanghai have declined. While Nikkei can trade within 49000-52000 for the near term, Shanghai can remain within the 3950-4050 region.

The Dow (47457.22, -1.65%) fell after the end of the US shutdown raised concerns on the FED’s rate cut decision for Dec-25. While below 48000, we may expect a test of 47000 before moving up again in the medium term.

DAX (24041.62, +1.39%) has dipped. But while the index holds above 24000, we can still expect a rise to 24500-25000 eventually. Broader range of 23000-25000 may hold for the next few weeks.

Nifty (25879.15, +0.013%) has been rising as expected. While above 25800, the view is bullish towards 26000.

Nikkei (50621.43, -1.29%) has declined today. Immediate support is seen near 49000, above which there is decent scope for a rise back towards 51000-52000 soon.

Shanghai (4007.13, -0.56%) has dipped slightly today. We expect the 4050-3950 region to hold for the near term.

Crude prices bounced against expectations as the US government’s reopening lifted sentiment, but Brent still looks vulnerable below $ 65 and WTI below $ 62, keeping the broader view intact for a dip towards $ 60 and $ 56. Gold is holding firm after testing $ 4250 and can push towards $ 4300-4350 with the downside now limited to $ 4000, while Silver needs a sustained break above $ 54 for a move to $ 55-56 or else risks slipping back to $ 51-50. Copper is likely to stay range-bound between $ 5.20 and $ 4.90. Natural gas continues to rise in line with expectations with room to head towards $ 4.70-4.80.

Brent ($ 64.50) has climbed back sharply against our expectation as the reopening of the US government supports growth and boosts energy demand. As long as it stays below $ 65, our view remains unchanged for a decline towards $ 60 in the coming weeks.

WTI ($ 60.63) has also bounced against expectations, but while it holds below $ 62, the broader view stays intact for a fall towards $ 56.

Gold ($ 4193) tested the expected high of $ 4250 before closing near $ 4194 yesterday. A further rise towards $ 4300-4350 looks likely in the coming weeks, with downside risk now limited to $ 4000.

Silver ($ 52.84) hit a fresh all-time high of $ 54.42 but could not sustain and slipped to close near $ 53.17. A steady break above $ 54 is needed for a push towards $ 55-56, else it can fall back towards $ 51-50.

Copper ($ 5.0710) may continue to trade within the broader $ 5.20-4.90 range for some time.

Natural Gas ($ 4.6230) is moving higher as expected and can rise towards $ 4.70-4.80 in the coming weeks.

GMT 6:30 IST 12:00 IN WPI
-1.40 …Expectation -0.60 …Previous 0.13

GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 US PPI
…Expectation 0.0 …Previous -0.1

GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 US PPI ex Food & Energy
…Previous -0.1

GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 US Retail Sales
…Expectation 1.1 …Previous 0.6

GMT 9:30 IST 15:00 IN Trade bal
…Previous -32.2

DATA YESTERDAY
================

GMT 0:30 IST 06:00 Australia Labour Force
…Expectation 20.3 …Previous 14.9 …Actual 42.2

GMT 7:00 IST 12:30 UK Trade Bal
…Expectation -20.8 …Previous -21.2 …Actual -18.9

GMT 10:00 IST 15:30 EU Ind Prodn
-1.3 …Expectation 0.8 …Previous -1.2 …Actual 0.2

GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 US CPI
…Expectation 0.2 …Previous 0.3 …Actual

{GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 US Core CPI
…Expectation 0.3 …Previous 0.2 …Actual