The Dollar Index is stuck within 99-100 region. EURUSD can attempt to bounce back towards 1.16-1.17 if the support near 1.1550 holds. EURINR can trade within 103.50-102.00 region for some time. EURJPY can test 182 before getting peaked out. USDJPY can move towards 158 or even 160 on a sustained move above 156. USDCNY is gradually rising within 7.10-7.14 range. Aussie is coming off within its 0.6580-0.6480/60 range and can test the support near 0.6460 if the fall extends further. Pound stays vulnerable to fall towards 1.30 while below 1.32. USDINR continues to trade within 88.50-88.80 for now.

Dollar Index (99.535) has been consolidating between 99-100 region since the last few sessions and a decisive break on either side will be needed for further clarity.

EURUSD (1.1588) is approaching the resistance turned support near 1.1550 from where a rebound towards 1.16-1.17 looks likely. Only if the pair slips below 1.155, can extend the fall to the deeper support at 1.15 in the near term.

EURINR (102.7114) is coming off within its 103.50-102.00 range which is expected to remain intact as long as the support at 102 holds.

EURJPY (179.88) is holding below resistance at 180 but has yet to show a follow-through pullback toward 178–177. Chances are that it breaks above 180 and advances toward the next resistance zone near 182–183 before getting peaking out.

Dollar-Yen (155.21) has been in an uptrend for a while and a sustained move above 156 if seen can open the doors for 158-160 in the near term. Overall, view appears bullish above 154.

USDCNY (7.1075) has slightly inched higher and a break above 7.11 is needed to extend the rise within its 7.10-7.14 range.

Aussie (0.6492) tested the high of 0.6537 before coming down. If the fall continues, a test to the support coming near 0.6460 can be tested soon. Thereafter, whether the range of 0.6460-0.660 remains intact or not will have to be seen.

Pound (1.3152) has been moving within 1.32-1.31 region since the last few sessions. For now, we retain our view of seeing a fall towards 1.30 as long as it trades below the resistance coming at 1.32.

USDINR (88.5880) is holding the 88.80-88.50 range quite well for now. A breach below 88.50 will be needed to open the path towards 88.30-88.25.

The US Treasury yields are turning down from the upper end of their range. So, for now, the sideways range remains intact and a fall within it is possible. A bullish breakout is needed to go up. The German Yields are holding above their resistance. A strong follow-through rise is needed from here to confirm the breakout and move higher. The 10Yr GoI continues to move up and can rise further in the coming days.

The US 10Yr (4.13%) and 30Yr (4.73%) Treasury yields are turning down from their upper end of the range. For now, the 4.05%-4.15% (10Yr) and 4.6%-4.75% (30Yr) range remains intact. Only a decisive bullish breakout will open the doors to see 4.2% (10Yr) and 4.8% (30Yr) on the upside.

The German 10Yr (2.71%) and 30Yr (3.31%) yields are managing to hold above 2.7% (10Yr) and 3.3% (30Yr). A strong follow-through rise from here is needed to see 2.8%-2.85% (10Yr) and 3.4%-3.45% (30Yr) on the upside. Else the chances of the fall to 2.5% (10Yr) and 3.1% (30Yr) will remain alive.

The 10Yr GoI (6.5435%) is holding higher. It can breach 6.55% and rise to 6.6% in the coming days.

Global indices are mixed, with the Dow headed towards 46500 before attempting a rebound and the DAX headed towards 23500-23000 before pausing for a rebound. Nifty is rising well and can test 26200 before facing rejection. Nikkei is supported near 49000 but if breaks, can test lower support at 48000. A bounce from 49000 or 48000 can eventually take it higher in the long run. Shanghai can test 3950 before rising towards 4050 or higher. Break below 3950, if seen, can take it down to 3900.

The Dow (46590.24 -1.18%) has fallen and headed to test 46,500 from where it can rise back again to 47000 and higher.

DAX (23590.52, -1 20%) is likely to test 23500-23000 before managing to rise back towards 24500-25000 in the medium term. A breakout on either side of 23000 or 25000 is needed for more clarity on the longer run.

Nifty (26013.45, +0.40%) has risen well, closing above 26000 yesterday. It can rise towards immediate resistance near 26200 in the near term before pausing there for a short decline.

Nikkei (49323.11, -1.99%) has declined to almost test support at 49000 which is crucial. A bounce from here can trigger a rise towards 52000 or higher while a sustained break below 49000 can ensure further decline to lower support at 48000.

Shanghai (3963.64, -0.21%) remains weak and is headed towards the lower end of the 4050-3950 region that we have been mentioning for the past few days. A further decline below 3950 can take it down to 3900; else a bounce from 3950 will take it back to 4050 and higher.

Crude prices remains range-bound with Brent holding inside $ 66-62 and WTI inside $ 62-58 before both turn lower in the coming weeks. Gold is slipping towards the key $ 4000 support that decides whether it bounces or extends its fall toward $ 3800-3600. Silver is steady above $ 50 but stays vulnerable if that level breaks. Copper is still moving inside its broader $ 5.20-4.90 band as long as it holds above $ 4.90. Natural gas continues to weaken with room to slide towards $ 4.30.

Brent ($ 63.88) is likely to trade within the $ 66-62 range before a decline towards $ 60 unfolds in the coming weeks.

WTI ($ 59.55) can stay within the $ 62-58 band for now, with a fall towards $ 56 expected later in the coming weeks.

Gold ($ 4028.70) is sliding, and a sustained break below $ 4000 would turn the outlook bearish for a deeper drop towards $ 3800-3600. If $ 4000 holds, it can still bounce towards $ 4150-4250.

Silver ($ 49.73) is hovering above $ 50, and a sustained break below this level can extend the fall to $ 48-47, while holding above $ 50 can lead to a bounce towards $ 51-52.

Copper ($ 4.9870) fell to a low of $ 4.9610 yesterday, but while above $ 4.90 it can continue to trade within the broader $ 5.20-4.90 range for now.

Natural Gas ($ 4.3430) has dropped as expected and can fall further towards $ 4.30 in the near term.

GMT 14:15 IST 19:45 US Industrial Production
0.1 …Previous 0.1

GMT 14:15 IST 19:45 US Capacity Utilization
77.0 …Previous 77.4

GMT 13:00 IST 01:30 US TICS (Net foreign purch of long-term Sec)
…Previous 49.2

DATA YESTERDAY
===============

GMT 23:50 IST 05:20 JP GDP
…Expectation -0.6% …Previous 0.5% …Actual -0.4%

GMT 9:30 IST 15:00 IN Trade bal
…Expectation -29.4 …Previous -32.2 …Actual -41.7

GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 CA Inflation Y/Y
…Expectation 2.8 …Previous 2.7 …Actual 2.7