The Dollar Index continues to trade within 99-100 region for now. EURUSD can initially test 1.550 before attempting to bounce back towards 1.165. EURINR is trading lower within its 103.50-102.00 range. EURJPY can test 182 before getting peaked out. USDJPY can move towards 158 or even 160 on a sustained move above 156. USDCNY is gradually rising within 7.10-7.14 range. Aussie has bounced well from the low of 0.6450 and the 0.6450-0.6560 range is likely to hold for now. Pound stays vulnerable to fall towards 1.30 while below 1.32. USDINR continues to trade within 88.50-88.80 for now.

Dollar Index (99.535) has inched higher within its 99-100 range. Still, a confirmed rise past 100 will be needed to bring 101 into picture.

EURUSD (1.1576) can soon test the support near 1.1550 before rebounding towards 1.165. Only if the pair slips below 1.155, can extend the fall to the deeper support at 1.15 in the near term.

EURINR (102.5088) is coming off within its 103.50-102.00 range which is expected to remain intact as long as the support at 102 holds.

EURJPY (180.01) tested 180.29 before declining a bit. The cross has a scope to head towards 182-183 on a sustained move above 180 before getting peaked out.

Dollar-Yen (155.47) is rising as anticipated and a sustained rise above 156 if seen can open the doors for 158-160 in the near term. Overall, view remains bullish above 154.

USDCNY (7.1109) can rise within its 7.10-7.14/15 range which is expected hold for some time.

Aussie (0.6492) tested the low of 0.6450 but quickly recovered, maintaining the 0.6450–0.6600 range for now.

Pound (1.3135) has been moving within 1.32-1.31 region since the last few sessions. For now, we retain our view of seeing a fall towards 1.30 as long as it trades below the resistance coming around 1.32.

USDINR (88.55) continues to hold the 88.50-88.80 range for now. A breach below 88.50 will be needed to open the path towards 88.30-88.25.

The US Treasury yields remain stable near the upper end of their range. They have to get a bullish breakout of this range to go higher. Else they can fall within the range. The German Yields seem to struggle in getting a strong follow-through rise after the resistance breakout. Need to wait and watch if they manage to rise from here or fall below the resistance again. The 10Yr GoI has dipped slightly. Bias remains positive to rise within the range.

The US 10Yr (4.12%) and 30Yr (4.74%) Treasury yields remain stable. The 4.05%-4.15% (10Yr) and 4.6%-4.75% (30Yr) range is intact for now. A strong rise and a bullish breakout is needed to see 4.2% (10Yr) and 4.8% (30Yr) on the upside.

The German 10Yr (2.71%) and 30Yr (3.32%) yields remain stable above 2.7% (10Yr) and 3.3% (30Yr). They need to get a strong follow-through buying from here to go up to 2.8%-2.85% (10Yr) and 3.4%-3.45% (30Yr). Only then a fall back to 2.5% (10Yr) and 3.1% (30Yr) will be avoided.

The 10Yr GoI (6.5258%) has dipped slightly. While above 6.5% the bias is positive to break 6.55% and rise 6.6%. Broadly, 6.5%-6.6% is the trading range and the yield can rise within it.

Crucial support is seen for most indices with the Dow, Dax and Nifty at 46000, 23000 and 25800 respectively which needs to hold for the indices to rebound back to higher levels again.Nikkei and Shanghai too have supports at 48000 and 3900 respectively which needs to hold for the indices to rebound else could become vulnerable to decline sharply over the coming days. Watch price action near the crucial supports carefully for the near term.

The Dow (46091.74, -1.07%) has fallen sharply as technology shares continued to decline on concerns about valuations of AI- related stocks. The concerns arise after a sharp dip in the Bitcoin was seen. Dow needs to bounce back from 46000 to keep alive chances of a medium term rise else could become vulnerable to test 45000 or lower on a break below 46000.

DAX (23180.53, -1.74%) has fallen sharply. It is likely to test 23000 in the near term before possibly attempting to rise back towards 24500-25000 in the medium term. A decline below 23000 if seen could indicate fresh bearishness going forward.

Nifty (25910.05, -0.40%) closed lower yesterday unable to sustain above 26000. But while above 25800, the index has room to test 26200 in the near term.

Nikkei (48901.19, +0.41%) is trading above crucial support at 48000 above which the index can rebound towards 52000-54000. But if the index breaks below 48000, it can turn bearish towards 46000.

Shanghai (3939.81, -0.81%) has declined as expected and could be headed towards immediate and crucial support at 3900 which needs to hold for the index to rebound in the coming days. Else, a sustained break below 3900 can make the index vulnerable to decline to 3800 or lower in the near term.

Brent and WTI are inching higher but still look set to stay inside their ranges and eventually turn lower. Gold is holding above $ 4000 for now but risks a deeper slide if that level gives way. Silver bounced back after a brief dip below $ 50 and needs to stay above that mark to avoid slipping toward $ 48-47. Copper continues to drift inside its broad $ 5.20-4.90 range. Natural gas remains weak after breaking below $ 4.30, keeping the door open for a drop toward $ 4.2-4.0.

Brent ($ 64.66) has edged higher and is likely to stay within the $ 66-62 range before turning lower towards $ 60 in the coming weeks.

WTI ($ 60.48) has moved up and can remain within the $ 62-58 range for now, with a decline towards $ 56 expected later in the coming weeks.

Gold ($ 4060.80) is holding above $ 4000 for the moment, but a sustained break below this level would turn the outlook bearish for a deeper drop towards $ 3800-3600. If $ 4000 holds, a bounce towards $ 4150-4250 remains possible.

Silver ($ 50.59) dipped to a low of $ 49.12 yesterday but has bounced back above $ 50. A sustained break below $ 50 can extend the fall to $ 48-47, while holding above $ 50 can trigger a rise towards $ 51-52.

Copper ($ 4.9775) can continue to trade within the broader $ 5.20-4.90 range for now.

Natural Gas ($ 4.3830) broke below $ 4.30 and dropped to a low of $ 4.2350 before closing higher at $ 4.3710 yesterday. A sustained break below $ 4.30 can push the price further down towards $ 4.2-4.0 in the coming weeks.

GMT 7:00 IST 12:30 UK CPI Y/Y
4.2 …Expectation 3.6 …Previous 3.8

GMT 10:00 IST 15:30 EU CPI (YoY)
2.5 …Expectation 2.2 …Previous 2.1

GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 US Housing Starts
1316 …Previous 1307

DATA YESTERDAY
===============

GMT 14:15 IST 19:45 US Industrial Production
0.1 …Previous 0.1 …Actual

GMT 14:15 IST 19:45 US Capacity Utilization
77.0 …Previous 77.4 …Actual

GMT 13:00 IST 01:30 US TICS (Net foreign purch of long-term Sec)
…Previous 134.2 …Actual 179.8