The FED minutes released yesterday dampened the chance of a Dec-25 rate cut and led to the strength in the Dollar. The Dollar Index has risen past 100 and has a scope to extend the rise to 101 or even 102 as well. EURUSD & EURINR have dipped below 1.155 & 102 respectively. If the fall continues further, the pairs can be vulnerable to test 1.15-1.140 & 101 respectively. EURJPY & USDJPY are approaching our mentioned targets of 182-183 & 158-160 which can be tested in the near term. USDCNY is gradually rising within 7.10-7.14 range. Aussie is trading lower within its 0.660-0.645 range. Pound is coming off as anticipated and can soon test the level of 1.30. USDINR is holding the 88.50-88.80 range for now, but the fall to 88.25 remain into the play while the USDINR trades below 88.80 level. Watch out for the US NFP, Unemployment, Avg hrly earnings, Philifed Index & Existing Home sales data releases scheduled today.

Dollar Index (100.297) rose sharply above 100 following FED minutes that reduced the likelihood of a December U.S. rate cut. The rise could extend toward 101 or even 102 on a confirmed break past 101 if the DXY sustains above 100,. Clearer direction is expected after today’s release of various U.S. economic data.

EURUSD (1.1517) slipped below 1.155 due to Dollar strength, negating the earlier expectation of a rise toward 1.165. A break below 1.15 could push the fall further toward 1.145-1.140.

EURINR (101.98) has dipped slightly below 103.50-102.00 range and failing to see an immediate bounce can extend the fall towards 101 or lower.

EURJPY (181.29) is heading toward the resistance level around 182–183, which may be tested soon in the near term. Overall, the preferred view is that this resistance will hold and subsequently push the pair lower. Wait and watch for now.

Dollar-Yen (157.40) has risen in line with our bullish view and if sustained, can test our previously mentioned targets of 158-160 in the near term. Overall, the view remains bullish above 154.

USDCNY (7.1109) is gradually moving higher within its 7.10-7.14/15 range which is expected hold for some time.

Aussie (0.6475) is trading near the lower end of its 0.660–0.645 range. If it fails to hold above current levels and breaks below 0.6450, the fall could extend toward 0.64 or lower. Watch price action closely around current levels to see whether the range remains intact or not.

Pound (1.3049) has slipped below 1.31 and may test the near-term target around 1.30. Thereafter, it remains uncertain that whether the fall will continue toward the deeper support at 1.28 or if the pair will rebound from 1.30.

USDINR (88.5260) had initially tested a low of 88.41 but soon recovered. Currently it is back within the 88.50-88.80 range but as long as the resistance at 88.80 holds, we retain our view of seeing a fall towards 88.25 in the coming sessions.

The US Treasury yields are attempting to move up. The bias is positive to see a bullish breakout of the current range and rise going forward. The Fed meeting minutes release indicating the difference of opinion on the policy decision has raised doubts about getting another rate cut in December. This could support the yields to go up. The German Yields remain higher but stable. They need a strong follow-through rise to go further up from here. The 10Yr GoI has dipped. But support can limit the downside. The yield is likely to remain inside a sideways range.

The US 10Yr (4.14%) and 30Yr (4.75%) Treasury yields are moving up. We expect the yields to make a bullish breakout of their 4.05%-4.15% (10Yr) and 4.6%-4.75% (30Yr) range and rise to 4.2% (10Yr) and 4.8% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (2.71%) and 30Yr (3.33%) yields continue to remain stable above 2.7% (10Yr) and 3.3% (30Yr). We reiterate that a strong follow-through buying from here is needed for a rise to 2.8%-2.85% (10Yr) and 3.4%-3.45% (30Yr). Else, the chances of a fall back to 2.5% (10Yr) and 3.1% (30Yr) will remain alive.

The 10Yr GoI (6.5215%) has dipped further but may find support at 6.5%. For now, 6.5%-6.55% looks likely to be the narrow trading range within the broad 6.5%-6.6% range.

The Dow has risen from 45905 and needs to sustain its rise above 46000 to slowly head towards 47000. Nikkei has risen sharply and looks bullish towards 52000 while above 49000. Dax could have room to test 23000 before rising back towards 24000-24500 in the medium term. Nifty has risen to close above 26000 again but has crucial resistance at 26200 which if holds can produce a rejection. A decisive rise above 26200 is needed for medium term bullishness to set in. Shanghai is holding above 3900 and can gradually rise to 4000-4050.

The Dow (46138.77, +0.10%) has bounced back well from 45905. The index will have to sustain trade above 46000 to keep alive chances of a rise to 47000 or higher else could become vulnerable to test 45000 or lower on a break below 46000.

DAX (23162.92, -0.076%) dipped to test 23100 before closing slightly higher. A test of 23000 looks possible before a rebound can be seen. Only a decline below 23000, if seen could indicate fresh bearishness going forward.

Nifty (26052.65, +0.55%) managed to rise back and close above 26000 again. While above 25800, Nifty can attempt to rise towards 26200. However , a decisive break above 26200 is needed for medium term bullishness to set in.

Nikkei (50294.35, +3.62%) bounced back sharply from 49113, holding above the initial support at 49000. While above 48000/49000, view for Nikkei looks bullish towards 52000 and higher eventually.

Shanghai (3946.74, +0.18%) has bounced from 3930 itself, respecting the support at 3900. Now while above this near term support, the index can rise back towards 4000-4050 again.

Crude prices stay weak as Brent holds within $ 66-62 and WTI trades inside $ 62-58 range for now. Gold is pushing higher above $ 4000 and can head towards $ 4150-4250. Silver must hold above $ 50 to aim for $ 51-52 or risk a slide to $ 48-47. Copper stays steady within $ 5.20-4.90. Natural gas needs a break above $ 4.7 to target $ 4.9-5.0 or it may fall toward $ 4.2-4.0.

Brent ($ 63.72) has slipped as expected and can stay within the $ 66-62 range before turning lower towards $ 60 in the coming weeks.

WTI ($ 59.49) has moved down in line with our view and can hold within the $ 62-58 range for now, with a fall towards $ 56 likely in the coming weeks.

Gold ($ 4080.10) is inching up steadily and while $ 4000 holds, a rise towards $ 4150-4250 can be seen soon.

Silver ($ 51.12) is trading above $ 50. A sustained break below $ 50 can drag it to $ 48-47, while holding above $ 50 can lift it towards $ 51-52.

Copper ($ 5.0230) can stay within the broader $ 5.20-4.90 range for now.

Natural Gas ($ 4.5450) has bounced back against expectation but must break above $ 4.7 to rise towards $ 4.9-5.0, otherwise it stays vulnerable to a break below $ 4.30 and a fall to $ 4.2-4.0.

GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 US NFP
64 …Expectation 58 …Previous 22

GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 US Unemployment Rate
…Previous 4.3 …Previous 4.3

GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 US Avg Hrly Earnings
0.2 …Expectation 0.3 …Previous 0.3

GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 US Average Hourly Earnings Production & Non Supervisory Employees
…Previous 0.4

GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 US Philifed Index
…Expectation 0.1 …Previous 23.2

GMT 15:00 IST 20:30 US Existing Home Sales
…Expectation 4090.0 …Previous 4060

DATA YESTERDAY
===============
GMT 7:00 IST 12:30 UK CPI Y/Y
4.2 …Expectation 3.6 …Previous 3.8 …Actual 3.6

GMT 10:00 IST 15:30 EU CPI (YoY)
2.5 …Expectation 2.2 …Previous 2.1 …Actual 2.1

GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 US Trade Balance
…Expectation -61.4 …Previous -78.3 … Actual -59.6