The Dollar Index can move towards 101 while it sustains above 99.50. EURUSD is trading within its 1.15.-1.16 range. EURINR can initially test 102.50 before rebounding within its 102.00-103.50/104 range. EURJPY and USDJPY needs to see a break on either side of their 180–182 & 156-158 range respectively. USDNCY is coming off and can fall towards the lower end of its 7.125-7.090 range. The Aussie need to sustain above current levels to move towards 0.65-0.655, while Pound faces immediate resistance at 1.315 which can be tested before coming down. USDINR is trading below 89.50 and has a scope to extend the decline towards 89.00-88.75. US PPI, US Retail sales & US Case Schiller are the data releases scheduled today.

Dollar Index (100.134) is stuck within 100.00-100.50 region since the last few sessions. Still, the target of 101 remains intact while DXY sustains above 99.50. Thereafter, a breach above 101 will be needed to push the index toward 102 and higher in the medium term.

EURUSD (1.1526) had risen to the high of 1.1550 before declining a bit. The pair is holding the 1.15-1.16 range for now and a breach below 1.15 is needed to extend the fall towards 1.145–1.140.

EURINR (102.7190) has interim support near 102.50, which may be tested before a rebound. Overall, it is expected to trade within the 102.00–103.50/104 range for some time, with downside likely limited to 102.00 for now.

EURJPY (180.54) is currently trading within the 180–182 range, while Dollar-Yen (156.60) is moving between 156–158. A decisive break on either side is necessary for clearer direction. Key resistance for EURJPY remains at 182–183, and the 160–162 zone is significant for USDJPY as it marks the area where the Bank of Japan has historically intervened. We will have to wait and see how the price action unfolds moving further.

USDCNY (7.0976) is coming off as anticipated and can decline towards the lower end of its 7.125-7.09 range.

Aussie (0.6462) has moved above 0.6460 but needs to see a sustained move above current levels to target 0.650-0.6550 in the near term. Else, a pullback towards 0.64 or lower looks likely.

Pound (1.3108) is slowly inching higher but faces immediate resistance near 1.315 and while it holds, the pair can witness a pullback within 1.320/1.315-1.300 region.

USDINR (89.0860) remained stable yesterday. While the pair trades below 89.50, a near-term test of 89.00–88.75 can happen. Our earlier mentioned target of 90.00-90.25 can only get achieved if the RBI allows the Rupee to depreciate above 89.50.

The US Treasury yields have dipped further. A break below their immediate support can drag the yields lower first from here and then a reversal can happen. The German Yields remain lower. They look vulnerable to break their immediate support and fall more in the coming days. The 10Yr GoI remains mixed and can go either way from here within its sideways range.

The US 10Yr (4.03%) and 30Yr (4.67%) Treasury yields have dipped further and are coming close to their support at 4% and 4.65% respectively. Failure to bounce back from there can drag them down to 3.9%-3.85% (10Yr) and 4.5% (30Yr). Thereafter a fresh rise is possible.

The German 10Yr (2.69%) and 30Yr (3.32%) yields remain lower. They have to sustain above 2.65% (10Yr) and 3.3% (30Yr) to keep alive the chances of rising back. Else they can fall to 2.5% (10Yr) and 3.1% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.5194%) has come down below 6.55%. Immediate picture is unclear. 6.5%-6.6% is the trading range. The yield can go either side within the range from here.

The Dow and Dax have risen following comments from Governor Waller on expectations of a potential FED rate cut in Dec-25 and on optimism on Ukraine’s peace deal. Dow could trade within 48000-45500/45000 region while Dax can trade within 23600-23000 for the near term. Nifty slipped below 26000 and could test 25800 before rebounding towards 26200 again. Nikkei has rebounded and trades higher today. A further rise towards 50000-52000 looks likely for the near term. Shanghai can bounce within the 3800-4050 region.

The Dow (46498.79, +0.55%) has risen slightly yesterday. We continue to look at the broad trade range of 48000-45500/45000 to hold for the near term.

DAX (23239.18, +0.64%) has risen yesterday supported by expectations of a potential FED rate cut in Dec-25 following comments from Governor Waller and on optimism on Ukraine’s peace deal. On the charts, the index has rebounded from 23000 and could have scope to rise to 23600 initially. An immediate range of 23600-23000 can hold for the next few sessions but in the medium term, we may keep open chances of a fall to 22800 or lower.

Nifty (25959.50, -0.42%) slipped below 26000 yesterday and could have scope to test 25800 initially before bouncing back towards 26200. Only a break below 25800 or above 26200 would give clarity on medium term direction.

Nikkei (49000.38, +0.77%) has held above the 48000 support and bounced well to trade higher. A rise to 50000-52000 could be on the cards for the near term. Only a decisive break below support region of 48000-47585 would turn the index bearish.

Shanghai (3836.77, +0.049%) is likely to hold within the 3800-4000 region for the near term. Failure to sustain above 3800 can open chances of a further decline to 3700-3600. Else the index can move up towards 4000-4050 while above 3800.

Crude prices have risen from levels seen yesterday. Brent and WTI could be headed towards near term resistances at $ 64 and $ 60-60.50 respectively before facing rejection from there in the coming days. Gold and Silver has risen. Gold needs to rise above $ 4150-4200 to indicate some near term bullishness else can remain within the $ 4150-4000 region while Silver looks bullish while above $ 48. Copper remains stable within its broader $ 5.10-4.90 band. Natural gas has risen as expected and could have scope to test $ 4.7/4.8 while above $ 4.4.

Brent ($ 63.20) and WTI ($ 58.73) have risen and are heading towards immediate resistance levels of $ 64 and $ 60-60.50 which if holds can produce a rejection back towards $ 62.50 or lower (Brent) and $ 58-56 (WTI) in the near term.

Gold ($ 4133.20) is headed towards the upper end of the $ 4000-4150 range mentioned yesterday. A break above $ 4150 and further rise beyond $ 4200 will be needed for the price to turn bullish in the coming days. Else the range may continue to hold for some more time.

Silver ($ 51.14) has risen as expected and can test $ 52 or higher in the coming days. Above $ 48, view is mildly bullish.

Copper ($ 5.0170) has risen slightly but is likely to trade within a range of $ 5.10-4.9 for the near term.

Natural Gas ($ 4.6340) has risen as expected to test 4.6550 but has dipped from there. There could be chances of a rise towards $ 4.7-4.8 while above $ 4.4.

GMT 13.30 IST 19.00 US PPI
0.0 …Expectation 0.3 …Previous -0.1

GMT 13.30 IST 19.00 US Core PPI
…Previous-0.1

GMT 13.30 IST 19.00 US Retail Sales (MoM)
1.1 …Expectation 0.4 …Previous 0.6

GMT 14.00 IST 19.30 US Case Schiller
…Previous 1.6

GMT 15.00 IST 20.30 US Cons Conf
…Expectation 93.4 …Previous 94.6

DATA YESTERDAY
===============
GMT 10.00 IST 15.30 GER IFO Business Climate
…Previous 88.4 …Actual 88.1

GMT 10.00 IST 15.30 GER IFO Business Situations
…Previous 85.3 …Actual 85.6

GMT 10.00 IST 15.30 GER IFO Business Expectations
…Previous 91.6 …Actual 90.6