The Dollar Index need to see a immediate bounce from current levels to keep the target of 101 alive. Else, it can be vulnerable to fall towards 99 or lower. EURUSD & EURINR face immediate resistance near at 1.1610 & 103.75 respectively. Wath price action closely to see whether the respective resistance holds or not. EURJPY is trading within 180-182 region. USDJPY has a scope to rise back towards 158 while it trades above 155.75. USDCNY can fall towards 7.07-7.065 before rebounding later. The Aussie can test the target of 0.655 in the coming sessions. Pound has moved above 1.32 and if sustained, can head towards 1.33-1.34 in the near term. USDINR can hold the 89.00-89.50 range in the near term.

Dollar Index (99.467) is trading near the support around 99.40 region. An immediate rebound from here is needed to keep the target of 101 intact. Failure to rebound could negate the expected rise and expose the index to extend the fall toward 99 or lower.

EURUSD (1.1610) & EURINR (103.3525) face immediate resistance just above current levels. As long as this resistance holds, the 1.16–1.15 range for the EURUSD & 103.75-102.00 for EURINR are expected to hold. Only a breach above 1.1615 and 103.75 will open the way for higher levels.

EURJPY (181.09) continues to consolidate between 180–182 region. A breach below 180 if seen can bring the deeper support at 178 into picture.

Dollar-Yen (155.97) can attempt to bounce back towards 158 and above while it trades above the support coming near 155.75 region.

USDCNY (7.0845) is coming off as anticipated it may test the next lower support zone near 7.07–7.065 before attempting a rebound later on.

Aussie (0.6532) has risen in line with our view and can test our target of 0.6550 in the near term. Overall, a range of 0.64-0.66 is expected to hold for some time.

Pound (1.3256) has indeed risen past 1.32 and while the rise sustains, a further test to 1.33-1.34 can happen in the coming sessions.

USDINR (89.1110) is holding the 89.50-89.00 range for now. We retain our view of seeing a fall towards 88.75 as long as the pair trades below 89.50.

The US Treasury yields continue to move down. They have room to fall further to test their support. Thereafter the yields can rise back again. The German Yields remain lower. The struggle to get a strong rise keeps them vulnerable to fall more from here. The 10Yr GoI is holding above its support. The yields can rise back if it manages to sustain above the support.

The US 10Yr (3.99%) and 30Yr (4.64%) Treasury yields have dipped just below their support. That increases the chances of seeing a fall to 3.9%-3.85% (10Yr) and 4.5% (30Yr) first. Thereafter the yields can rise back again.

The German 10Yr (2.67%) and 30Yr (3.3%) yields remain lower and stable. Failure to rise back strongly from here can drag them below 2.65% (10Yr) and 3.3% (30Yr) towards 2.5% (10Yr) and 3.1% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.4934%) is managing to hold above the support at 6.48%. While above 6.48%, a rise back to 6.55% is possible. Only a break below 6.48% will bring in the danger of seeing a fall to 6.45%-6.4%.

The Dow and Dax continue to rise, targeting 48000 and 24000-24200. Nifty tested crucial resistance near 26200. A break above 26250 can take it higher towards 26400 eventually. Else, we may see an initial decline to 25800/25500 within a medium-term uptrend. Nikkei has risen as expected and is now bullish towards 52000, while Shanghai can continue to rise towards 4000 while in the 3800-4000 trade range.

The Dow (47427.12, +0.67%) continues to rise towards crucial resistance at 48000 which, if holds, can produce a decline towards 47000-46000 again in the medium term.

DAX (23726.22, +1.11%) has risen above 23600, and while the rise sustains, there is room for a further rally towards 24000-24200 on the upside.

Nifty (26205.30, +1.24%) surged yesterday to test crucial resistance at 26200. A decisive break above 26250 is needed for the index to continue its rally towards 26400+ levels. Any decline from 26250 can take the price back towards 25800-25500 temporarily within a medium-term uptrend.

Nikkei (50221.76, +1.34%) has risen above 50000 as expected, and the index can rise further towards 52000.

Shanghai (3879.85, +0.41%) is likely to hold within the 3800-4000 region for the near term and slowly rise towards the upper end of the range.

Crude remains stable with limited downside potential in the near term. Gold tested 4200 and pulled back; a break above 4200 could open 4400, while failure to rise may drag it back to 4050. Silver is nearing its long-term resistance at $ 54, from where a drop toward $ 50–48 is likely unless a sustained break above $ 54 triggers fresh bullishness. Copper has spiked to resistance at $ 5.21, and while this holds, a dip toward $ 5–4.8 is expected. Natural gas has gained on stronger-than-expected inventory draws, but below 4.7, a decline toward 4.4 is possible.

Brent ($ 62.89) and WTI ($ 58.39) look stable near levels seen yesterday. As mentioned in yesterday’s edition, the prices can dip within a range of $ 63-61/60 (Brent) and $ 60.50-55 (WTI) for the coming days. A breakout on either side of the mentioned ranges would be needed for medium term directional clarity. Till then the trade range may continue to hold.

Gold ($ 4185) tested $ 4200.80 before coming off slightly from there. While below $ 4200, there can be chances of a dip towards $ 4100-4050 before eventually moving up again targeting $ 4400 and beyond.

Silver ($ 53.45) has broken above $ 52 and could be headed towards the crucial resistance near $ 54. A decisive break above $ 54 is needed for the metal price to surge to $ 56/58; else if the resistance at $ 54 holds well, we may expect a sharp decline from there back towards $ 50/48.

Copper ($ 5.1970) tested $ 5.21 before coming off slightly from there. Note that $ 5.21 is a crucial resistance on the near-term charts and if holds can lead to a decline towards $ 5.0-4.8. Only a decisive break above $ 5.21 can open doors for further rise towards $ 5.4 or higher.

Natural Gas ($ 4.6140) rallied after the EIA reported that inventories fell -11 bcf in the week ended November 21, against an expectation of -9 bcf. A rise past 4.7, if seen, can take the prices higher to 4.8+. Else, a decline from current levels can take it back towards 4.4-4.2.

GMT 10:00 IST 15:30 EU Biz Climate
96.5 …Expectation 97.0 …Previous 96.8

DATA YESTERDAY
===============
GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 US Personal Income
0.5 …Expectation 0.4 …Previous 0.4 …Actual

GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 US PCE Price Index M/M
0.4 …Expectation 0.4 …Previous 0.2 …Actual

GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 US Durable Goods Orders
1.7 …Expectation 0.3 …Previous 2.9 …Actual 0.5