The Dollar Index has declined below 99.50 and a break below 99 if seen can drag it to 98 as well. EURUSD & EURINR needs to see a break past 1.16 & 103.75 to bring higher levels into picture. EURJPY is trading lower within its 182-180 range. USDJPY has declined below 156 and can now test the support around 155-154 region before attempting to bounce back later. USDCNY can fall towards 7.065-7.060 in the near term. The Aussie need to sustain above 0.655 to head towards 0.660-0.665. Pound can target 1.33-1.34 while it trades above 1.32. USDINR is trading within 89.00-89.50 range for now. A rise past 89.50 can take the pair towards 89.75-90.25 in the coming weeks. IN IIP, IN Manufaturing PMI & US ISM Manufacturing are some of the key data releases scheduled for the day.

Dollar Index (99.408) has slipped below the 99.50 support, and a break below 99 would make it vulnerable to extend the decline toward 98 in the coming sessions. The target of 101 is kept on hold until further clarity.

EURUSD (1.1583) & EURINR (103.5393) are hovering near resistance at 1.16 and 103.75, respectively. A sustained move above these levels is needed to target 1.165–1.17 and 104.00–104.50. Until then, the 1.15–1.16 range for EURUSD and the 102–103.75 range for EURINR are expected to persist.

EURJPY (180.44) is declining within the 182–180 range. Immediate support is expected around the 179–178 region, which may be tested if the fall continues before a potential rebound.

Dollar-Yen (155.97) has declined below 156, contrary to the view of sustaining above it. Immediate supports are now around 155–154, which may be tested before a rebound occurs thereafter.

USDCNY (7.0788) is coming off in line with our view and can test our target of 7.065-7.060 in the near term before halting.

Aussie (0.6532) rose to a high of 0.6557, meeting the target before a slight decline. A sustained move above 0.655 is needed to extend the ongoing rise towards the 0.660–0.665 levels.

Pound (1.3228) has a scope to head towards 1.33-1.34 while it trades above 1.32. Overall, the downside can be limited to 1.31.

USDINR (89.3320) is currently holding within the 89.00–89.50 range. A rise above 89.50 could push the pair initially higher toward 89.75–90.25 in the coming weeks before peaking out.

The US Treasury yields have risen but resistance is ahead. They have to break this resistance to move higher and avoid the fall that we have been expecting. The German Yields continue to remain stable. They have to get a strong rise from here to avoid the danger of the fall breaking below their support. The 10Yr GoI is moving up with its range. It can rise towards the upper end of the range from here.

The US 10Yr (4.03%) and 30Yr (4.69%) Treasury yields have risen. But the resistance at 4.05% (10Yr) and 4.7% (30Yr) has to be broken to go up to 4.15%-4.2% (10Yr) and 4.8%-4.85% (30Yr). Else the fall to 3.9%-3.85% (10Yr) and 4.5% (30Yr) cannot be ruled out .

The German 10Yr (2.69%) and 30Yr (3.32%) yields remain stable. We reiterate that a strong rise is needed from here. Only then a break below 2.65% (10Yr) and 3.3% (30Yr) and the fall to 2.5% (10Yr) and 3.1% (30Yr) will get negated.

The 10Yr GoI (6.5463%) rose to 6.5564% and has come down slightly. There is room to see 6.6% on the upside. Broadly, 6.48%-6.6% has been the trading range for some time now.

The Dow and Dax have slightly risen. Both can head towards 48000 and 24000-24200 respectively in the near term. Nifty needs to break above 26300 to test 26500 on the upside. Else a decline from here can take it down to 26000-25800 again. Nikkei has fallen sharply today and could find support near 49000 or at 48000 while below 50000. Shanghai can continue to rise towards 4000 while in the 3800-4000 trade range.

The Dow (47716.42, +0.61%) moved up on Friday as expected. The index is headed towards crucial resistance at 48000 which, if holds can produce a decline towards 47000-46000 again in the medium term.

DAX (23836.79, +0.29%) has scope to test 24000-24200 in the near term from where a rejection looks possible.

Nifty (26202.95, -0.048%) is holding below the near term resistance at around 26300. A decline from here can take the index down to 26000-25800. Else the index will have to rise past 26300 to test upper resistance at 26500.

Nikkei (49612.10, -1.28%) has fallen sharply and trades lower today. While below 50000, the index can look for support near 49000 and lower at 48000.

Shanghai (3888.60, +0.34%) is slowly rising towards 4000. We continue to look at a near term range of 3800-4000 unless a breakout is seen on either side.

All below mentioned commodities are trading higher today. Gold and Silver have surged and could continue to rise in the near term targeting $ 4400 and $ 58-60 soon. Crude prices are trading higher too and can test $ 64 (Brent) and $ 60.50 (WTI). Copper has risen past the near term resistance at $ 5.2 that we were mentioning last week. Now, a test of $ 5.5-5.6 can be possible while above $ 5.3. Natural Gas has also risen well as expected. A test of $ 5.5-5.6 is now possible before any pull back is seen.

Brent ($ 63.13) and WTI ($ 59.28) are trading higher. A test of $ 64 and $ 60.50 looks possible in the next 1-2 sessions. Thereafter, it has to be seen if the prices can rise further or decline towards $ 60 and $ 58 respectively in the medium term.

Gold ($ 4261.40) is holding well above $ 4200 and could have scope to test $ 4400 soon.

Silver ($ 57.86) has clearly broken above the crucial resistance near $ 54 and trades higher. The price can be headed towards $ 58-60 soon if the current momentum continues to hold. However, we may remain cautious to see if it is a confirmed breakout or whether the price can decline again below $ 54.

Copper ($ 5.3380) has risen sharply and broken above the near term resistance at $ 5.2. Now while the metal trades higher, it can rise towards $ 5.5-5.6 soon.

Natural Gas ($ 4.8310) has risen as expected. The price can rise towards medium term resistance at $ 5.5-$ 6.0 before facing a pull back.

GMT 0:30 IST 06:00 JP PMI
48.4 …Expectations 48.8 …Previous 48.2

GMT 1:45 IST 07:15 CN PMI

…Expectations 50.5 …Previous 50.6

GMT 5:00 IST 10:30 IN Manufacturing PMI
…Expectations 57.4 …Previous 59.2

GMT 8:30 IST 14:00 CH PMI
…Expectations 49.0 …Previous 48.2

GMT 9:00 IST 14:30 EU PMI
…Expectations 49.8 …Previous 50.0

GMT 9:30 IST 15:00 UK PMI
…Expectations 50.2 …Previous 49.7

GMT 12:00 IST 17:30 IN IIP
3.1 …Expectations 3.6 …Previous 4.0

GMT 14:30 IST 20:00 CA PMI
…Previous 49.6

GMT 15:00 IST 20:30 US Manufacturing ISM
…Expectations 49.0 …Previous 48.7

DATA LAST FRIDAY
===============

GMT 23:30 IST 05:00 JP Unemp
2.6 …Expectation 2.5 …Previous 2.5 …Actual 2.6

GMT 12:00 IST 17:30 IN GDP
7.2% …Previous 7.8% …Actual 8.2%

{GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 CA GDP
…Expectation 0.1 …Previous -0.3 …Actual 0.2