The Dollar Index rebounded from 99 itself. A confirmed rise past 99.50 will be needed to bring 100.50 and higher levels into picture. EURUSD can be vulnerable to extend the fall towards 1.1550-1.500 if it slips below 1.16. EURINR has risen as anticipated and further rise to 104.50-105.00 can be seen in coming sessions. EURJPY is trading within its 180-182 range. USDJPY has bounced well from the low of 154.66 and a sustained move above 156 if seen can take it towards 158 and higher. USDCNY can fall towards 7.065-7.060 in the near term. The Aussie turned lower from 0.6566 itself. If the fall continues, then 0.650-0.645 might get tested. Pound is stuck within 1.32-1.33 region. USDINR has been rising in line with our view and while above 89.50, our view remains intact to see a rise towards 90.00-90.25 in the coming weeks.

Dollar Index (99.408) limited the downside to 99 and later rebounded from there. Still, a sustained move above 99.50 will be needed to head towards 100.50-101.00 levels. While above 99, a broad range of 99-100.50 is likely to hold for some time before a breakout occurs.

EURUSD (1.1609) met our initial target of 1.165 before coming down. Failing to sustain above 1.16 can make it vulnerable to fall back towards 1.1550-1.500 levels in the coming sessions. A rise past 1.165 will be needed to bring higher levels into picture.

EURINR (104.0863) rose to the level of 104.31 before cooling down. While above 104, a further test to 104.50-105.00 looks possible in the near term. Only if it slips below 103.75, can negate our bullish view and take it towards 103.50-103.00.

EURJPY (180.68) continues to hold the 180–182 range for now.

Dollar-Yen (155.64) had dropped sharply to a low of 154.66 on speculation of a possible rate hike by the Bank of Japan. It has since recovered, but a sustained break above 156 is essential to bring 158 and higher levels back into action. Immediate downside can be limited to 154 for now.

USDCNY (7.0788) can test the support near 7.06 in the coming sessions before eventually rebounding towards 7.08-7.10 in the medium term.

Aussie (0.6546) failed to sustain its rise above 0.655 and started coming off from 0.6566 itself. If the fall extends further, a test to 0.650-0.645 can happen in the coming sessions. Overall, a broad range of 0.66-0.64 can hold for some time.

Pound (1.3216) is stuck within 1.32-1.33 region since the last few sessions. If the pair slips below 1.32, can test the support coming around 1.31 initially before rebounding later.

USDINR (89.6140) had risen to the high of 89.7825 in line with our bullish view before declining a bit. While the pair sustains above 89.50, a further test to 90.00-90.25 can be seen in the coming weeks.

The US Treasury yields have risen well above their resistance. While this sustains, the yields can rise more from here and the expected fall will get negated. The German Yields have risen sharply after hovering around their support for some time. This clears the way to see more rise in the coming days. The 10Yr GoI is heading up towards the upper end of the range. Need to wait and see if it is getting a bullish breakout this time or not.

The US 10Yr (4.08%) and 30Yr (4.73%) Treasury yields have risen well above 4.05% (10Yr) and 4.7% (30Yr). While this sustains, further rise to 4.15%-4.2% (10Yr) and 4.8%-4.85% (30Yr) is possible. That in turn will negate the fall to 3.9%-3.85% (10Yr) and 4.5% (30Yr) that we have been expecting.

The German 10Yr (2.75%) and 30Yr (3.38%) yields have risen sharply. That clears the way for the rise to 2.85% (10Yr) and 3.5% (30Yr). It also negates the danger of the fall to 2.5% (10Yr) and 3.1% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.5732%) is heading up towards 6.6%, the upper end of the 6.48%-6.6% range. A bullish breakout can take the yield to 6.75%.

The Dow and Dax have dipped and could test 47000 and 23000 before rebounding to higher levels. Nifty has also closed below 26200 yesterday and could test 26000 before again moving up towards 26400. Nikkei has received slightly after a sharp fall yesterday. A sustained break above 50000 can take it back to 52000 and higher.
Shanghai can continue to trade within the 4000-3800 range.

The Dow (47289.33, -0.90%) fell yesterday to close lower but could have decent support at 47000 above which there is chances of a rebound towards 48000. A break below 47000 if seen in the next few days would bring in 46000 into the picture.

DAX (23589.44, -1.04%) has also dipped along with a decline in the Dow. But while above 23000, there is scope for a rise to 24000-24200.

Nifty (26175.75, -0.10%) tested 26325.80 before closing lower below 26200. A range of 26000-26400 can hold for the near term.

Nikkei (49591.47, +0.58%) has risen slightly today after a sharp fall yesterday.
A sustained rise above 50000 can take it back towards 52000 or higher.

Shanghai (3900.01, -0.36%) has dipped slightly. The trade range of 3800-4000 may continue to hold for the near term unless a breakout is seen on either side.

Brent and WTI are holding firm and could rise to $ 64 and $ 60.50 soon, after which the market will decide whether the trend extends or reverses lower. Gold is staying strong above $ 4200 and is on course toward $ 4400. Silver keeps its bullish momentum after hitting a record $ 59.44 and can stretch toward $ 60–$ 61 if buyers stay active. Copper has broken above $ 5.2 and now has room to advance toward $ 5.5–$ 5.6. Natural gas is above $ 5.20 and looks likely to climb up towards $ 5.5–$ 6.0 before any pullback.

Brent ($ 63.23) and WTI ($ 59.39) remain firm, and a move towards $ 64 and $ 60.50 looks possible in the coming sessions. After that, it has to be seen whether the prices can extend the rise further or reverse lower towards $ 60 and $ 58 respectively over the medium term.

Gold ($ 4250.40) is holding above $ 4200 and looks on track to test $ 4400 in the near term.

Silver ($ 57.74) continues to trade strong after hitting a fresh all-time high of $ 59.44 yesterday. If the current momentum sustains, a further rise towards $ 60–$ 61 looks likely.

Copper ($ 5.2515) has surged and broken above the near-term resistance at $ 5.2. While the metal trades higher, it can move towards $ 5.5–$ 5.6 soon.

Natural Gas ($ 4.89) rose to a high of $ 5.36 yesterday and while holding above $ 5.20, it can head further up to test the resistance at $ 5.5–$ 6.0 before seeing a pullback.

GMT 10:00 IST 15:30 EU Unemp
…Expectations 6.3 …Previous 46.3

GMT 10:00 IST 15:30 EU CPI Flash Estimate (YoY)
2.5 …Expectations 2.2 …Previous 2.1

DATA YESTERDAY
===============

GMT 0:30 IST 06:00 JP PMI
48.4 …Expectations 48.8 …Previous 48.2 …Actual 48.7

GMT 1:45 IST 07:15 CN PMI
…Expectations 50.5 …Previous 50.6 …Actual 49.9

GMT 5:00 IST 10:30 IN Manufacturing PMI
…Expectations 57.4 …Previous 59.2 …Actual 56.6

GMT 9:00 IST 14:30 EU PMI
…Expectations 49.8 …Previous 50.0 …Actual 49.6

GMT 9:30 IST 15:00 UK PMI
…Expectations 50.2 …Previous 49.7 …Actual 50.2

GMT 12:00 IST 17:30 IN IIP
3.1 …Expectations 3.6 …Previous 4.6 …Actual 0.4

GMT 14:30 IST 20:00 CA PMI
…Previous 49.6 …Actual

GMT 15:00 IST 20:30 US Manufacturing ISM
…Expectations 49.0 …Previous 48.7 …Actual 48.2