The Dollar Index is trading near the lower end of its 100.50-99.00 range. A breach below 99 if seen can open the doors for 98 in the near term. EURUSD need to see a rise past 1.165 to bring higher levels into picture. EURINR can test 105-106 in the near term before getting peaked out. EURJPY & USDJPY can trade within 180-182 & 154-158 region respectively. USDCNY can fall towards 7.060 soon before rebounding. The Aussie has risen well but faces immediate resistance at 0.660-0.665 which can cap the upside for now. Pound is stuck within 1.32-1.33 region. USDINR can rise towards 90.00-90.25 in the near term. US ADP Employment, Industrial production & Capacity utilisation are some of the important data releases scheduled today.

Dollar Index (99.23) had risen to 99.56 initially before coming down. A break below 99 could accelerate the fall toward 98.50-98.00 near term. Monitor price action around 99 closely to see if the 99.00-100.50 range holds or not.

EURUSD (1.1609) looks stable above 1.16 for now. A sustained move above 1.165 will be needed to bring 1.17 or even 1.18 levels into picture. Immediate resistance turned support is coming at 1.16 and while it holds, a further rise looks possible.

EURINR (104.5561) has met our initial target of 104.50 and while the rise sustains, a further test to 105 or 106 on a break past 105 can happen in the near term before getting peaked out.

EURJPY (181.23) continues to hold the 180–182 range for now.

Dollar-Yen (155.77) tested the high of 156.18 before cooling down a bit. As long as the support at 154 holds, a broad range of 154-158 is likely to persist in the near term before a breakout occurs on either side.

USDCNY (7.0788) is coming off as anticipated and can test the support near 7.06 in the coming sessions before eventually rebounding towards 7.08-7.10 in the medium term.

Aussie (0.6575) limited the downside to 0.6536 and has currently recovered. Now, resistance lies in the 0.660-0.665 zone. As long as it holds, the broad range of 0.645-0.665 and narrow range of 0.650-0.665 are likely to persist.

Pound (1.3226) continues to remain stuck within 1.32-1.33 region since the last few sessions. If the pair slips below 1.32, can test the support coming around 1.31 initially before rebounding later.

USDINR (89.83) tested the high of 89.9525 before closing slightly lower. Our target of 90.25 can get tested in the near term, and if this level holds, a corrective dip towards 89.00 can be seen thereafter. Alternatively, a break above 90.25 would open the door for a fresh rally.

The US Treasury yields sustain above their support. That keeps the near-term picture positive to move up to test their resistance. The price action around the resistance will need a close watch to see if the yields are extending their rise or falling back again. The German yields are holding higher. Bias is positive. The yields can rise more from here. The 10Yr GoI has come down sharply within the range. It can now test the lower end of the range. For now, we expect the sideways range to remain intact.

The US 10Yr (4.07%) and 30Yr (4.74%) Treasury yields sustain higher. While above 4.05% (10Yr) and 4.7% (30Yr) the yields can test 4.15%-4.2% (10Yr) and 4.8%-4.85% (30Yr) on the upside. The price action thereafter will need a watch to see if the yields are rising past that hurdle or turning down again.

The German 10Yr (2.75%) and 30Yr (3.38%) yields sustain higher. The bias is bullish to see a rise to 2.85% (10Yr) and 3.5% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.5155%) has come down sharply from the upper end of the range. That keeps the 6.48%-6.6% range intact. It can test 6.5%-6.48%, the lower end of the range now.

The Dow and Dax have risen slightly and could have scope to rise in the near term towards 48000+ and 24000+ levels. Nifty needs to hold above the immediate support to rise back to 26200-26400 else can decline sharply towards 25800/600. Nikkei could trade within 51000-48000 for a while. Shanghai can remain subdued while below 4000 and can continue to hold within 4000-3800 region for now.

The Dow (47474.46, +0.39%) has room on the upside towards 49000 which can be tested if it holds above the crucial support at 47000. Overall view is bullish above 47000.

DAX (23710.86, +0.51%) closed higher yesterday and has scope to rise towards 24000-24200 in the near term while above 23500.

Nifty (26032.20, -0.55%) tested support on the daily chart at 25997.85 before closing slightly higher. As long as the support holds, the index can have scope to rebound towards 26000-26400. A break below the support level would bring in 25800/600 into the picture.

Nikkei (49697.31, +0.80%) has risen and could almost test 50000 soon. A narrow range of 51000-48000 seems to be holding for now. A decisive break above 51000 is needed for a sharp rise beyond 52000, else the index may remain stable for a while.

Shanghai (3894.16, -0.091%) is likely to trade within the 3800-4000 region. Only a decisive break above 4000 would indicate fresh bullishness. Till then the range could hold well for, at least for the next few sessions.

Brent and WTI have slipped and may test support at $ 61 and $ 58 respectively. Gold retains above $ 4200 and can rise towards $ 4400. Silver keeps its bullish momentum with room to stretch toward $ 60–$ 62. Copper stays positive while above $ 5.2, keeping the door open for a climb toward $ 5.5–$ 5.6. Natural Gas remains poised for a rise towards $ 5.25–$ 5.50 before any potential reversal.

Brent ($ 62.34) and WTI ($ 58.56) have reversed after failing to sustain higher and can now fall to test the immediate supports at $ 61 and $ 58 respectively in the near term. After that, it has to be seen whether these supports hold and trigger a rebound.

Gold ($ 4254.10) is trading firmly above $ 4200 and looks on track to test $ 4400 in the near term.

Silver ($ 59.23) remains bullish and can extend its rise towards $ 60–$ 62 in the near term.

Copper ($ 5.2730) has dipped slightly, but while above $ 5.2 the outlook stays positive for a further rise towards $ 5.5–$ 5.6 in the coming sessions.

Natural Gas ($ 4.8550) rose to a high of $ 4.9840 yesterday before closing lower. The chances of a rise towards $ 5.25–$ 5.50 remain intact in the near term before any reversal sets in.

GMT 22:30 IST 04:00 AU PMI
…Previous -22.0

GMT 0:30 IST 06:00 AU GDP
…Expectations 0.7 …Previous 0.6

GMT 5:00 IST 10:30 IN Services PMI
…Expectations 59.9 …Previous 58.9

GMT 7:30 IST 13:00 CH CPI
…Expectations 0.1 …Previous 0.1

GMT 13:15 IST 18:45 US ADP Emp
…Expectations 19.0 …Previous 42.0

GMT 14:15 IST 19:45 US Industrial Production
0.1 …Expectations 0.1 …Previous 0.1

GMT 14:15 IST 19:45 US Capacity Utilization
77.0 …Expectations 77.3 …Previous 77.4

DATA YESTERDAY
===============

GMT 10:00 IST 15:30 EU Unemp
6.4 …Expectations 6.3 …Previous 6.3 …Actual 6.4

GMT 10:00 IST 15:30 EU CPI Flash Estimate (YoY)
2.5 …Expectations 2.2 …Previous 2.1 …Actual 2.2