The Dollar Index has breached below 99 over the growing expectations of rate cut from FED in its Dec-25 meeting. If the fall continues, a test to 98 or even 97 can be seen in the near term. EURUSD & EURINR can head towards 1.17-1.18 & 106 respectively in the near term if both the pairs sustained above current levels. EURJPY & USDJPY can trade within 180-182 & 158-154 region respectively. USDCNY can attempt to rebound towards 7.08-7.10 while the support at 7.06 holds. The Aussie is headed towards the resistance coming at 0.6650. Pound has surged above 1.32 and if sustained, can test 1.34-1.35 in the coming sessions. USDINR tested the high of 90.29 before closing lower. Immediate resistance is coming at 90.50 which can cap the upside for now.

Dollar Index (99.23) slipped below 99 after the weaker-than-expected ADP Employment report at -32K (19K) boosted expectations of a Fed rate cut in December. While trading below 99, the fall can extend further towards 98 or even 97 in the coming sessions.

EURUSD (1.1609) has risen past 1.165 and while the rise sustains, the pair has a scope to test 1.17-1.18 levels. The level of 1.16 can now act as an resistance turned support.

EURINR (105.3302) surged well in line with our bullish view and can test our previously mentioned target of 106 in the near term before getting peaked out.

EURJPY (181.12) continues to hold the 180–182 range for now.

Dollar-Yen (155.36) is expected to trade within broad range of 158-154, as long as the support at 154 holds. A rise past 156 will be needed to head towards the upper end of its range.

USDCNY (7.0689) tested the low of 7.0618 before recovering a bit. While the support at 7.06 holds, a rebound towards 7.08-7.10 is expected in the medium term.

Aussie (0.6609) has risen past 0.66 but faces immediate resistance at 0.665 and while below it, a narrow range of 0.665-0.650 & a broad range of 0.665-0.645 is expected to hold.

Pound (1.3356) surged sharply above 1.33 over weaker Dollar. While the rise sustains, a further test to 1.34-1.35 can happen in the coming sessions. continues to remain stuck within 1.32-1.33 region since the last few sessions. If the pair slips below 1.32, can test the support coming around 1.31 initially before rebounding later.

USDINR (90.1460) met our target of 90.25 and even surpassed it by testing 90.29. Immediate resistance is now at 90.50, which is expected to hold for the week. A break past 90.50 if seen can bring 91.10 into picture.

The US Treasury yields fell and then has risen back again. The supports are holding well. That keeps the chances alive of seeing a rise in the near-term to test their resistance. The German Yields remain higher but stable. The bias is bullish to see more rise from here. The 10Yr GoI is attempting to bounce back from the lower end of its range. The sideways range can continue to remain intact for some more time.

The US 10Yr (4.07%) and 30Yr (4.74%) Treasury yields are holding well above their support at 4.05% (10Yr) and 4.7% (30Yr). While above this support, a rise to 4.15%-4.2% (10Yr) and 4.8%-4.85% (30Yr) is possible. The price action thereafter will need a watch to see if the yields are reversing lower again or managing to extend the upside.

The German 10Yr (2.75%) and 30Yr (3.39%) yields are higher and stable. The view remains bullish to see a rise to 2.85% (10Yr) and 3.5% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.5369%) is bouncing back. The 6.48%-6.6% range is intact and the yield can continue to oscillate within it for some more time. While below 6.55%, the yield can dip to test the lower end of the range first and then rise back.

Global indices show mixed momentum as the Dow stays firm with scope towards 49,000, DAX looks positive above 23,500 despite sluggishness. Nifty may dip to 25,850–25,800 before resuming its rise toward 26,400 and beyond. Nikkei needs a break above 51,000 to stretch higher toward 52,000 or else stays range-bound, while Shanghai remains weak and risks a test of 3,800 with its 4,000–3,800 range still intact.

The Dow (47882.80, +0.86%) has risen sharply. Our bullish view remains intact to see 49000. Support is at 47000.

DAX (23693.71, -0.07%) seems to be struggling to rise. However, while above 23500, the outlook is positive to see a rise to 24200-24500.

 Nifty (25986, -0.18%) can test 25850-25800 while below 26100. But thereafter it can reverse higher to resume the upmove and rise towards 26400 and higher.

Nikkei (50,600, +1.44%) has risen above 50,000 as expected, but it needs to break past 51,000 to extend the upmove towards 52,000. Otherwise, a sideways range of 51,000–48,000 could hold in the near term.

Shanghai (3,868.01, -0.27%) continues to decline and could soon test 3,800. While 3,800 holds, the previously mentioned range of 4,000–3,800 is likely to persist until a breakout on either side provides clearer direction.

Crude prices inched up but still risk a fall towards $ 61 for Brent and $ 58 for WTI before any rebound takes place. Gold stays bullish above $ 4200 with room towards $ 4400. Silver needs a break above $ 60 to extend gains toward $ 61–$ 62 or higher. Copper remains strong with scope to reach $ 5.50–$ 5.60, while Natural gas continues to advance towards $ 5.25–$ 5.50 before a possible pullback.

Brent ($ 62.81) and WTI ($ 59.13) have edged higher but still look vulnerable to a decline towards their immediate support levels at $ 61 and $ 58 in the near term. After testing these supports, we need to watch whether a rebound emerges from there.

Gold ($ 4233.40) has dipped slightly, but while it trades above $ 4200, the broader outlook stays positive for a rise towards $ 4400 in the near term.

Silver ($ 59.02) tested a high of $ 59.66 yesterday before retreating to $ 58.62. A sustained break above $ 60 is required to extend its bullish momentum towards $ 61–$ 62 or higher in the near term.

Copper ($ 5.40) surged to a high of $ 5.4370 yesterday as expected, and the price continues to look bullish towards $ 5.50–$ 5.60 in the near term.

Natural Gas ($ 4.9790) climbed to a high of $ 5.03 yesterday in line with expectations and can extend further towards $ 5.25–$ 5.50 in the near term before any reversal takes place.

GMT 0:30 IST 06:00 Australia Trade Balance A$ Bln
…Expectations 4.4 …Previous 3.9

GMT GMT 8:30 IST 14:00 CH PMI
…Expectations 49.0 …Previous 48.2

GMT 10:00 IST 15:30 EU Retail Sales
…Expectations 0.0 …Previous -0.1

GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 US Trade Balance
…Expectations -65.5 …Previous -59.6

GMT 15:00 IST 20:30 US New Home Sales
789 …Expectations 710 …Previous 800

DATA YESTERDAY
===============

GMT 22:30 IST 04:00 AU PMI
…Previous -22.0 …Actual -18

GMT 0:30 IST 06:00 AU GDP
…Expectations 0.7 …Previous 0.6 …Actual 0.4

GMT 5:00 IST 10:30 IN Services PMI
…Expectations 59.9 …Previous 58.9 …Actual 59.8

GMT 7:30 IST 13:00 CH CPI
…Expectations 0.1 …Previous 0.1 …Actual 0.07

GMT 13:15 IST 18:45 US ADP Emp
…Expectations 19.0 …Previous 42.0 …Actual -32

GMT 14:15 IST 19:45 US Industrial Production
0.1 …Expectations 0.1 …Previous -0.3 …Actual 0.1

GMT 14:15 IST 19:45 US Capacity Utilization
77.0 …Expectations 77.3 …Previous 75.9 …Actual 75.9