The Dollar Index can extend the fall towards 98 or even 97 while it trades below 100. Watch out for the US PCE & US Personal income data releases for better clarity. The targets of 1.17-1.18 & 106 are kept open in EURUSD & EURINR while the pairs trade above 1.16 & 104 respectively. EURJPY can trade within 180-182 region, while & USDJPY can initially test 154-153 before rebounding. USDCNY can attempt to rebound towards 7.08-7.10 while the support at 7.06 holds. The Aussie is headed towards the resistance coming at 0.6650 which can be tested soon before getting peaked out. Pound has declined a bit but the target of 1.34-1.35 remains into the play while it trades above 1.3250. USDINR is currently trading at 89.8530 on the NDF. Even if the fall extends to 89.50 initially, a rise to 91 can still happen before eventually getting peaked out. RBI MPC is scheduled today wherein it is expected to cut the rates by 25-bps.

Dollar Index (99.00) tested the low of 98.765 yesterday before recovering a bit. The targets of 98-97 are kept open while the pair trades below 100. A better clarity could be expected after the US PCE data release scheduled today.

EURUSD (1.1609) has slightly inched lower but the pair has a scope to head towards 1.1750-1.1800 in the near term while it sustains above 1.16.

EURINR (104.7237) tested 105.39 before coming down. If the fall extends further, a test to 104.50-104.00 can happen before rebounding later. On the upside a crucial resistance is coming near 106 which is expected to cap the upside.

EURJPY (180.67) continues to hold the 180–182 range for now.

Dollar-Yen (155.36) is trading lower within its broad range of 158-154 and while below 155.50, a test to 154-153 can happen initially before attempting to bounce back later.

USDCNY (7.0689) has bounced a little and while the support at 7.06 holds, a rebound towards 7.08-7.10 is expected in the medium term.

Aussie (0.6613) is approaching the resistance near 0.6650 which can be tested soon. For now, while below 0.665, a narrow range of 0.665-0.650 & a broad range of 0.665-0.645 is expected to hold.

Pound (1.3331) started coming off from 1.3385 itself. Immediate support lies in the 1.3300–1.3250 region; as long as this holds, upside targets of 1.34–1.35 remain intact.

USDINR (89.8510) rose to 90.4225 before closing at 89.98 in the onshore market, likely due to RBI intervention. On the NDF it is trading lower, and while below 90.50, the fall can extend towards 89.50 initially. However, the broader view of an eventual rise toward 91 remains intact before any meaningful rupee appreciation can unfold.

The US Treasury yields remain higher. They have room to rise further in the near-term to test their resistance. The price action after this rise will need a close watch to see if the rise is extending or a reversal is happening. The German yields are inching higher. That keeps intact our bullish view. The yields can rise more from here. The 10Yr GoI remains stable within its broad range. The RBI meeting outcome today will need a close watch.

The US 10Yr (4.09%) and 30Yr (4.75%) Treasury yields sustain higher. While above 4.05% (10Yr) and 4.7% (30Yr), the upside is open to see 4.15%-4.2% (10Yr) and 4.8%-4.85% (30Yr) in the near-term. The price action thereafter is going to be very important to see if the upmove is extending or reversing lower.

The German 10Yr (2.77%) and 30Yr (3.40%) yields are inching higher. The view of seeing a rise to 2.85% (10Yr) and 3.5% (30Yr) remains intact.

The 10Yr GoI (6.5304%) made a failed attempt to breach 6.55%. That keeps alive the chances of seeing 6.48% on the downside first. Broadly, 6.48%-6.6% is the trading range.

The Dow has dipped slightly with positive target of 49000 intact while the DAX can continue to move up towards 24200 while above 23500. Nifty could see an initial dip to 25800 before moving higher towards 26200/500. Nikkei needs a break above 51,000 to stretch higher toward 52,000; else can range within the 51000-48000 region. Shanghai remains weak and risks a test of 3,800 with its 4,000–3,800 range still intact.

The Dow (47850.94, -0.067%) has dipped. While above immediate support at 47000, the Dow can initially rise above 48000 followed by an eventual test of 49000.

DAX (23882.03, +0.79%) has risen and looks positive for a rise to 24200-24500, while above 23500.

Nifty (26033.75, +0.18%) has decent scope to test 25850-25800 while below 26100; before moving back towards 26400 gradually. A sustained trade above 26000 would negate the initial expected dip.

Nikkei (50,319.31, -1.39%) has risen above 50,000 as expected, but needs to sustain a rise past 51,000 to extend the upmove towards 52,000. Else, a sideways range of 51,000–48,000 can be expected for the near term.

Shanghai (3,870.88,-0.13%) continues to decline towards 3,800. While 3,800 holds, the range of 4,000–3,800 is likely to persist.

Crude prices can range between 64-62 (Brent) and 60-58 (WTI) for some time. Gold remains bullish towards 4400 for the near term. Silver has turned lower after failing to clear 60 and can slip to 56 before stabilising. Copper remains bullish despite a mild dip. Natural Gas is continuing its strong uptrend with potential to extend toward 5.25–5.50 before a pullback kicks in.

Brent ($ 63.14) and WTI ($ 59.50) have inched higher and are expected to stay range-bound for now, with Brent likely holding between $ 64-62 and WTI between $ 60-58.

Gold ($ 4230.60) is trading well above $ 4200 and, while it stays above this support, the broader bias remains positive for a rise towards $ 4400 in the coming sessions.

Silver ($ 57.88) failed to break above $ 60 and corrected sharply to $ 56.85 yesterday, leaving room for an extension lower towards $ 56 before a recovery.

Copper ($ 5.3995) has eased slightly, but the broader trend stays bullish with scope for a move towards $ 5.50–$ 5.60 soon.

Natural Gas ($ 5.0970) continues to head higher as expected and can stretch further towards $ 5.25–$ 5.50 before a reversal takes place.

GMT 4:30 IST 10:00 RBI Repo Rate
…Expectations 5.25 …Previous 5.50

GMT 4:30 IST 10:00 RBI Rev Repo Rate
…Previous 3.35

GMT 4:30 IST 10:00 RBI MSF
…Previous 5.75

GMT 10:00 IST 15:30 EU GDP
…Expectations 0.2 …Previous 0.2

GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 US Personal Income
0.5 …Expectations 0.3 …Previous 0.4

GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 US PCE Price Index M/M
0.4 …Expectations 0.2 …Previous 0.2

GMT 0:30 IST 06:00 Australia Trade Balance A$ Bln
…Expectations 4.4 …Previous 3.9 …Actual -6.3

GMT GMT 8:30 IST 14:00 CH PMI
…Expectations 49.0 …Previous 48.2 …Actual 49.7

GMT 10:00 IST 15:30 EU Retail Sales
0.2. …Expectations 0.0 …Previous -0.1 …Actual 0.0

GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 US Trade Balance
…Expectations -65.5 …Previous -59.6 …Actual

{GMT 15:00 IST 20:30 US New Home Sales
789 …Expectations 710 …Previous 800 …Actual