The Dollar Index can extend the fall towards 98 or even 97 while it trades below 99. The EURUSD & EURINR can head towards 1.17-1.18 & 106 respectively in the near term. EURJPY can trade within 180-182 region, while USDJPY can initially test 154-153 before rebounding. USDCNY has support at 7.06 and while it holds a bounce back towards 7.08-7.10 can happen. The Aussie is hovering near the resistance coming at 0.665. Need to see whether the resistance holds or the rise extends further. Pound has as scope to rise towards 1.34-1.35 while it trades above 1.3250. USDINR can attempt to rise towards 90.50-91.00 as long as it trades above 89.50.

Dollar Index (98.89) has been coming off gradually and can extend the fall towards 98-97 while the pair trades below 99.

EURUSD (1.1653) has a scope to head towards 1.1750-1.1800 in the near term while it sustains above 1.16.

EURINR (104.8108) initially tested the low of 104.49 as anticipated before rising back. For now, we retain our view of seeing a rise towards 106 before getting peaked out.

EURJPY (180.54) continues to hold the 180–182 range for now.

Dollar-Yen (154.94) can initially test the support coming around 153 before eventually rebounding later.

USDCNY (7.0689) can attempt to rise back towards 7.08-7.10 in the coming weeks while it sustains above the support coming around 7.06-7.05.

Aussie (0.6645) has met our target of seeing a rise to 0.665. Now, whether the rise extends toward 0.67 and higher or the resistance holds and push the pair lower will have to be seen. Watch price action closely around current levels.

Pound (1.3336) has immediate support coming around coming around 1.33 and as long as this holds, upside targets of 1.34–1.35 remain intact.

USDINR (89.8960) observed the low of 89.69 before closing higher on Friday. While above 89.50, the upside toward 90.50-91.00 remains intact. Only if the pair slips below 89.50 can bring 89 into picture.

The US Treasury yields are moving up as expected and are coming close to their resistance zone. The price action this week is going to be important. We have to see if the yields are making a bullish breakout above their resistance or not. The German yields have risen further. They keep the bullish view intact and can rise more in the coming days. The 10Yr GoI failed to sustain the downside breakout of its range. For now, the sideways range remains intact. It can rise within the range if it manages to sustain above the range support.

The US 10Yr (4.13%) and 30Yr (4.79%) Treasury yields have risen as expected. They are coming up towards the 4.15%-4.2% (10Yr) and 4.8%-4.85% (30Yr) resistance zone. We will have to wait and see if the yields are rising past this resistance zone or reversing lower again.

The German 10Yr (2.80%) and 30Yr (3.43%) yields have risen further. They are heading up towards 2.85% (10Yr) and 3.5% (30Yr) in line with our expectation.

The 10Yr GoI (6.5181%) has risen back into the range after an intraday break below the range. For now, the 6.48%-6.6% range remains intact.

Global equities remain broadly firm, with the Dow holding its bullish setup for 49000 and the DAX pushing higher toward 24500 and potentially 24800. Nifty continues to climb and can test 26300-26350 while 25800-26350 acts as the broader range for now. Nikkei trades above 50000 but needs a break past 51000 to target 52000, otherwise it may stay sideways between 51000-48000. Shanghai has bounced above 3900 yet still faces resistance near 3950, keeping it in a 3950-3800 consolidation zone for the time being.

The Dow (47954.99, +0.22%) sustains higher. Outlook remains bullish to see 49000. Support is at 47000.

DAX (24028.14, +0.61%) continues to move up. Bias is positive to break 24200 and rise to 24500 and even 248000. Supports are at 23500 and 23000.

Nifty (26186.45, +0.59%) has risen without seeing a dip to 25850-25800. While this sustains, 26300-26350 can be seen in the coming days. Broadly, 25800-26350 seems to be the trading range. Bias is positive to see a bullish breakout eventually.

Nikkei (50,675.31, -0.41%) trades above 50,000 but needs a rise past 51,000 to extend the upmove towards 52,000. Else, a sideways range of 51,000–48,000 can be expected for the near term.

Shanghai (3,916.04,+0.36%) has bounced back above 3900. While below 3950, a range of 3950-3800 could hold for some time.

Brent and WTI have inched up but are likely to stay range-bound within $ 64-62 and $ 60-58 for now. Gold remains steady above $ 4200 and can rise towards $ 4400 while support near $ 4100 holds. Silver stays weak below $ 60 with room to fall towards $ 56 before any recovery. Copper has risen to $ 5.49 and can extend towards $ 5.60-5.65. Natural needs a break above $ 5.50 for a move towards $ 6.0-7.0 or else it risks slipping to $ 5.0-4.5.

Brent ($ 63.76) and WTI ($ 60.10) have edged higher and are expected to remain range-bound for now, with Brent likely staying within $ 64-62 and WTI within $ 60-58.

Gold ($ 4230.20) is holding above $ 4200. While it remains over the immediate support near $ 4100, the outlook stays positive for a rise towards $ 4400 in the near term.

Silver ($ 58.30) continues to trade below $ 60. It remains vulnerable to a decline towards $ 56 in the near term before a potential reversal.

Copper ($ 5.4270) rose to a high of $ 5.49 on Friday in line with expectations and can extend further towards $ 5.60-5.65.

Natural Gas ($ 5.1210) surged to a high of $ 5.49 Friday on colder US weather forecasts. But has failed to sustain and fell sharply to close at $ 5.2890. A break above $ 5.50 is needed to turn bullish towards $ 6.0-7.0, otherwise it may drop back towards $ 5.0-4.5.

GMT 23:50 IST 05:20 JP GDP
…Previous -0.4%

DATA LAST FRIDAY
================

GMT 4:30 IST 10:00 RBI Repo Rate
5.25 …Expectations 5.25 …Previous 5.50 …Actual 5.25

GMT 4:30 IST 10:00 RBI Rev Repo Rate
…Previous 3.35 …Actual 3.35

GMT 4:30 IST 10:00 RBI MSF
…Previous 5.75 …Actual 5.5

GMT 10:00 IST 15:30 EU GDP
…Expectations 0.2 …Previous 0.2 …Actual 0.3

GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 US Personal Income
0.5 …Expectations 0.3 …Previous 0.4 …Actual 0.4

GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 US PCE Price Index M/M
0.4 …Expectations 0.2 …Previous 0.2 …Actual 0.2

{GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 CA Labour Force
…Expectations -7.6 …Previous 66.6 …Actual 53.6