The Dollar Index has recovered slightly but the targets of 98-97 are kept open for now. We retain our view on EURUSD & EURINR rising toward 1.17-1.18 & 106 respectively in the near term. EURJPY can trade within 180-182 region, while USDJPY need to see a rise past 156 to bring higher levels into picture. USDCNY is stuck within 7.06-7.08 region. Watch price action closely in Aussie to see whether the resistance at 0.665 holds or not. Pound has a scope to rise towards 1.34-1.35 while it trades above 1.33. USDINR can attempt to rise towards 90.50-91.00 as long as it trades above 89.50.

Dollar Index (99.04) had risen a bit yesterday as the markets have priced in a Dec-25 rate cut but expects milder easing cycle thereafter. For now, the targets of 98-97 are kept open until further clarity. Upside can be capped at 100.00-100.50.

EURUSD (1.1644) & EURINR (105.005) can rise toward 1.17-1.18 and 105.50-106.00 in the near term while they sustain above 1.16 & 104 respectively.

EURJPY (181.51) is trading higher within its 180–182 range. A decisive break on either side will be needed for further clarity in the near term.

Dollar-Yen (155.86) has recovered well from the 154.34 low but now faces immediate moving-average resistance near 156. A sustained break above this is needed to open the upside toward 157–158. Broadly, a 154–158 range is likely to hold for now.

USDCNY (7.0689) is stuck between 7.06-7.08 region since last few sessions. Immediate support is coming at 7.05 and while it holds, we retain our view of seeing a rise towards 7.08-7.10 in the coming weeks.

Aussie (0.6626) has eased slightly from the 0.6649 high, but a break below 0.66 is needed to confirm that the pair has peaked out. Until then we will have to watch the price action closely around current levels to see whether the resistance at 0.665 holds or the rise extends toward 0.67 and higher.

Pound (1.3328) has immediate support coming around coming around 1.33 and as long as this holds, upside targets of 1.34–1.35 remain intact.

USDINR (90.1330) had risen to the high of 90.26 yesterday before closing lower. Immediate support from the moving averages lies near 89.75/50, and while this zone holds, the outlook remains bullish for a move toward 90.50–91.00.

The US Treasury yields have come into their resistance zone. The price action in the next few days is important to see if the yields are managing to make a bullish breakout or not. The German yields have risen sharply. The yields are looking strong and can rise much more than we had expected earlier. The 10Yr GoI has risen sharply within its range. It can move up to test the upper end of the range from here.

The US 10Yr (4.16%) and 30Yr (4.8%) Treasury yields have risen into their 4.15%-4.2% (10Yr) and 4.8%-4.85% (30Yr) resistance zone respectively. A breakout above 4.2% (10Yr) and 4.85% (30Yr) will be bullish to see 4.35% (10Yr) and 5% (30Yr). Else the yields can fall back to 4% (10Yr) and 4.6% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (2.86%) and 30Yr (3.46%) yields have risen sharply. The yields look strong and can see an extended rise to 2.95%-3% (10Yr) and 3.55%-3.6% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.5697%) has risen sharply. The 6.48%-6.6% range continues to hold well. The yield can test the upper end of the range now.

The Dow and the DAX continue to look bullish while above supports at 47000 and 23000-23500 respectively. Nifty could have scope to test 25850-25800 before climbing towards 26300-26350 eventually. Nikkei needs a break past 51000 to target 52000, otherwise it may stay sideways between 51000-48000. Shanghai may hold in the 3950-3800 range.

The Dow (47739.32, -0.45%) has dipped. While above support at 47000, the broader view is bullish for a rise towards 49000.

DAX (24046.01, +0.074%) continues to move up and looks likely to break above 24200 and rise towards 24500-24800. Immediate supports are seen at 23500 and 23000 respectively above which near term view is bullish.

Nifty (25960.55, -0.86%) fell sharply yesterday, closing below 26000. The index has some chances of seeing a dip to 25850-25800 before eventually rising higher towards 26300-26350. Overall, 25800-26350 can be the trading range in the next 1-2 weeks. Bias is to see a bullish breakout eventually.

Nikkei (50,538.71, -0.085%) has dipped slightly. It needs a rise past 51,000 to extend the upmove towards 52,000. Else, a sideways range of 51,000–48,000 can continue to hold for the near term.

Shanghai (3,915.15,-0.23%) trades above 3900 and could hold in the 3950-3800 region for the near term.

Brent and WTI have reversed as expected and look set to stay within the ranges of $ 64-62 and $ 60-58 for now. Gold is steady above $ 4200 and may continue consolidating between $ 4200 and $ 4300 before attempting a move toward $ 4400. Silver stays weak below $ 60 with room to slip toward $ 56 before any recovery. Copper has dipped slightly but still carries scope to rise toward $ 5.55-5.60. Natural gas has slipped below $ 5 with support at $ 4.80 that needs to hold to avoid a deeper fall toward $ 4.50-4.00.

Brent ($ 62.41) and WTI ($ 58.78) have reversed sharply in line with expectations of holding their respective ranges. They can continue to trade within $ 64-62 and $ 60-58 respectively in the near term.

Gold ($ 4225.10) remains steady near $ 4200 and while above this it can stay within $ 4200-4300 for some time before attempting higher levels of $ 4400 or more.

Silver ($ 58.43) is still below $ 60 and remains vulnerable to a decline towards $ 56 in the near term before a possible reversal.

Copper ($ 5.4325) has dipped slightly but the broader outlook is unchanged for a rise towards $ 5.55-5.60 over the coming sessions.

Natural Gas ($ 4.8490) has dropped back below $ 5.00 as anticipated. Immediate support is near $ 4.80 and if this holds a bounce back can be seen in the coming sessions. Failure to sustain above $ 4.80 can drag the price down to $ 4.50-4.00 over the next few weeks.

GMT 3:30 IST 09:00 RBA Meeting
…Expectations 3.6 …Previous 3.6

DATA YESTERDAY
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GMT 23:50 IST 05:20 JP GDP
…Expectations -0.5% …Previous -0.4% …Actual -0.6%