The FED cut the rates by 25-bps thereby bringing it down to 3.75%. The Dollar Index has turned lower as anticipated and it can test 98-97 before rebounding later. EURUSD & EURINR can head towards 1.18 & 106 in the near term. EURJPY need to sustain above 182 to rise towards 184-185. USDJPY can decline within its 158-154 range. USDCNY can test the support at 7.05 before bouncing back later. AUDUSD need to hold above 0.665 to head towards 0.67-0.68 in the near term. Pound has bounced well and has a scope to test 1.3450-1.350. USDINR is trading near 89.90 region on the offshore. We will have to see as to whether it breaks below 89.75 or holds above it and rebounds toward 90.00–90.25. US Trade Balance data release is scheduled today.

Dollar Index (98.563) has declined sharply after the FED cut rates by 25bps. The index can test 98-97 before moving up eventually towards 100.50 in the longer run.

EURUSD (1.17) & EURINR (105.1382) have risen on a weak Dollar Index as expected. Euro can test 1.18 if it sustains rise above 1.17 while EURINR can rise towards 105-106 before pausing.

EURJPY (182.08) has dipped slightly but has fair scope to rise towards 184-185 before facing a sharp rejection towards 182-180 for the medium term.

Dollar-Yen (156.66) is coming off within its 158-154 range due to dollar weakness. However, as long as the support zone at 155–154 holds, the range is expected to remain intact.

USDCNY (7.0606) is trading near the lower end of its 7.08-7.06 range. Immediate support is coming at 7.05 which can hold and take the USDCNY higher eventually.

Aussie (0.6655) has risen past 0.6650 and if sustained, can extend the rise towards 0.67-0.68 as well in the near term.

Pound (1.3375) bounced from the support near 1.33 and while it holds, a rise to 1.3450-1.350 can happen in the coming sessions.

USDINR (89.84) tested our initial support at 89.75 before a mild recovery. A decisive break below 89.75 is needed to open the downside toward 89.50–89.25 initially. Else, if the pair holds above 89.75, a rebound toward 90.00–90.25 remains likely.

The US Treasury yields have come down sharply after the Fed meeting outcome last night. The resistance zone has held well. Failure to rise back immediately can drag the yields further lower in the coming days. The Fed cut the rates by 25bps in line with expectation. It has not made any change in its projection for next year. The German yields remain higher. They can rise more in the coming days. The 10Yr GoI has made a bullish breakout as expected. That keeps the door open for it to rise more going forward.

The US 10Yr (4.14%) and 30Yr (4.77%) Treasury yields have come down sharply. The 4.15%-4.2% (10Yr) and 4.8%-4.85% (30Yr) resistance zone seems to have held very well. Failure to rise back immediately above 4.15% (10Yr) and 4.8% (30Yr) can drag the yields down to 4% (10Yr) and 4.6% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (2.85%) and 30Yr (3.45%) yields remain higher and stable. The view of seeing a rise to 2.95%-3% (10Yr) and 3.55%-3.6% (30Yr) remains intact.

The 10Yr GoI (06.48 GS 2035, 6.6283%) has risen above 6.6% as expected. That keeps intact our view of seeing 6.7%-6.75% on the upside.

The Dow rallied after the FED cut rates by 25bps and has signalled slower pace of easing in 2026 with one more rate cut in the next year. The Dow can rise towards 49000 soon but thereafter it has to be seen if it would sustain the rise or fall back towards 47000. DAX looks bullish towards 24500.  Nifty closer below 25800 yesterday and could have scope to test 25600 before climbing towards 26000 or higher again. Nikkei needs a sustained break past 51000 to target 52000, otherwise it may stay sideways between 51000-48000. Shanghai trades above 3900 today and could head towards 3950 before falling back towards 3800.

The Dow (48507.75, +1.05%) rallied after the FED cut rates by 25bps and signalled a slower pace of cuts in the coming year with one more rate cut in 2026. The Dow can rise towards 49000 in the near term. Thereafter, a decisive break above 49000 is needed for the index to continue upmove towards 50000 or higher. Else we may expect a decline back towards 47000.

DAX (24130.14, -0.13%) dipped slightly yesterday. But the index has a fair scope to break above 24200 and test 24500 soon.

Nifty (25758, -0.32%) closed below 25800 yesterday as expected. It can test 25600 and rise back towards 26000 or higher again in the medium term. Only a break below 25600 will make it vulnerable to fall further towards 25400-25200. Watch for a possible bounce from 25600 for now.

Nikkei (50,613.15, +0.02%) needs a sustained rise above 51,000 to extend the upmove towards 52,000. Else, the index may continue to trade sideways within the range of 51,000–48,000.

Shanghai (3,901.18, +0.018%) has risen back above 3900 and can rise towards short term resistance near 3950 from where a dip to 3800 can be expected. We continue to look at the 3950-3800 region to hold unless a decisive breakout is seen on either side of the range.

Crude prices are hovering near key supports, with Brent close to breaking below $ 62 and WTI needing a sustained fall below $ 58 to push lower towards $ 60 and $ 56 respectively. Gold is steady inside its $ 4200-4300 band with room to attempt $ 4400 later. Silver’s sharp rise keeps the path open for $ 64-66. Copper remains supported above $ 5.20 and can head towards $ 5.50-5.60. Natural gas still carries a near-term downside risk towards $ 4.50-4.40.

Brent ($ 62.54) is trying to break below $ 62 after testing a low of $ 61.35 yesterday. A sustained break could pull it down towards $ 60 in the coming sessions.

WTI ($ 58.83) tested a low of $ 57.66 before bouncing to close above $ 58 yesterday. A clear break below $ 58 is needed for a further drop towards $ 56.

Gold ($ 4267.70) is likely to stay within the $ 4200-4300 range for now before attempting a move towards $ 4400 or higher.

Silver ($ 63.15) has risen sharply as expected and can extend higher towards $ 64-66 in the coming sessions.

Copper ($ 5.4390) bounced to a high of $ 5.47 yesterday. Immediate support is near $ 5.20 and while that holds, a rise towards $ 5.50-5.60 is possible.

Natural Gas ($ 4.6180) inched up after testing a low of $ 4.45 yesterday. The view remains for a decline towards $ 4.50-4.40 in the near term.

GMT 0:30 IST 06:00 Australia Labour Force
…Expectations 20.3 …Previous 42.2

GMT 8:30 IST 14:00 SNB Mtg
…Expectations 0.0 …Previous 0.0

GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 US Trade Balance
…Expectations -65.5 …Previous -59.6

DATA YESTERDAY
================

GMT 1:30 IST 07:00 CN CPI (YoY)
…Expectations 0.7 …Previous 0.2 …Actual 0.7

GMT 1:30 IST 07:00 CN PPI
…Expectations -2.0 …Previous -2.1 …Actual -2.2

GMT 14:00 IST 19:30 BOC Meeting
…Expectations 2.3 …Previous 2.3 …Actual

GMT 18:00 IST 23:30 US FOMC Meeting
…Expectations <3.75 ...Previous <4.00 ...Actual