The Dollar Index can decline towards 97.50-97.00 in the near term. EURUSD & EURINR can head towards 1.1800 & 106.50-107.00 respectively. EURJPY can extend higher towards 184-185 before topping out. USDJPY continues to trade within the 158-154 range. USDCNY may test support at 7.05-7.045 before staging a rebound. AUDUSD is stuck within 0.67-0.66 region. GBPUSD can test 1.3450-1.3500 in the coming sessions while it sustains above 1.3350. USDINR faces immediate resistance near 90.70 which can be tested initially before before coming down.

Dollar Index (98.36) is coming off as anticipated and DXY has enough room in the charts to extend the fall towards 97.50-97.00 before eventually rebounding towards 100.50 in the medium term.

EURUSD (1.1734) & EURINR (105.9457) can test 1.18 & 106.50-107.00 in the near term before getting peaked out.

EURJPY (182.68) looks stable above 182 for now. While the rise sustains, a test to towards 184-185 before facing a sharp rejection towards 182-180 for the medium term.

Dollar-Yen (155.70) is trading lower within its 158-154 range which is likely to remain intact for some time.

USDCNY (7.0530) is nearing the support coming around 7.050-7.045 which can be tested before bouncing back later.

Aussie (0.6645) is consolidating between 0.67-0.66 region since the last few sessions and a breakout on either side will be needed for further clarity.

Pound (1.3368) has immediate support just below current levels and while it holds, we retain our view of seeing a rise towards 1.3450-1.350 in the coming sessions.

USDINR (90.5440) has immediate resistance near 90.70 which can be tested before eventually coming down towards 90.25-90.00 in the near term.

The US Treasury yields have risen further and come close to their resistance. A break above the resistance will be bullish to take them higher. Else the yields can fall back again and trade in a sideways range for some time. The German Yields are moving up in line with our expectation. The bullish view is intact, and there is room to rise more. The 10Yr GoI is oscillating around its resistance. Need to see if it is managing to rise past the resistance decisively or falling back into its previous range. Wait and watch.

The US 10Yr (4.18%) and 30Yr (4.84%) Treasury yields have risen further and come close to their resistance. As mentioned earlier, a sustained break above 4.2% (10Yr) and 4.85% (30Yr) will only take the yields higher to 4.35% (10Yr) and 5% (30Yr). Else they can fall back to 4% (10Yr) and 4.6% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (2.86%) and 30Yr (3.48%) yields are moving up. The bullish view remains intact to see 2.95%-3% (10Yr) and 3.55%-3.6% (30Yr) on the upside.

The 10Yr GoI (6.5931%) is oscillating around 6.6%. A sustained rise above 6.6% is needed to go up to 6.7%-6.75%. Else the yield can fall back into the 6.48%-6.6% which will get confirmed on a fall below 6.55%.

The Dow has fallen, holding below 49000. It can trade within 49000-48000 for the near term. DAX can decline to 24000-23500 while below 24200. Nifty is headed towards 26200-26500. Nikkei trades lower but needs to hold above 50000 to rise. Else can decline to 49000 before rebounding. Shanghai continues trade within the 3800-3950 region.

The Dow (48458.05, -0.51%) tested 48886 and came off sharply from there, holding below the 49000 level just now. A near term trade range of 49000-48000 can be expected.

DAX (24186.49, -0.45%) has also declined in line with the fall in the Dow. The index will have to rise back above 24200 to rise further, else can decline back towards 24000-23500 levels.

Nifty (26046.95, +0.57%) closed above 26000 in the previous session and has scope to rise back towards 26200-26500 soon. View is bullish for the near term.

Nikkei (50,192.19, -1.27%) trades lower today but needs to sustain trade above 50000 to rise slowly from here. Else, a break below 50000 can pull it down to lower support at 49000.

Shanghai (3,877.76, -0.30%) has important near term resistance at 3900 below which the index has scope to decline to 3800. Overall the 3800-3900 range can hold for the near term.

Crude prices remain under pressure with Brent and WTI likely to extend their weakness towards $ 60 and $ 56 in the near term. Gold has strengthened after testing higher levels and can continue its upmove towards $ 4400-4500. Silver holds above its key support near $ 60 and keeps the upside open for $ 65-66. Copper remains vulnerable below $ 5.60 with scope for a further fall towards $ 5.00. Natural gas stays bearish with downside risk towards $ 4.00-3.80 in the coming sessions.

Brent ($ 61.35) and WTI ($ 57.69) remain weak and can decline towards $ 60 and $ 56 respectively in the near term.

Gold ($ 4336.20) rose to a high of $ 4387 on Friday and can head higher towards $ 4400-4500 in the near term.

Silver ($ 62.36) reversed to a low of $ 61.05 on Friday. Immediate support is seen near $ 60 and while that holds, we retain our view of a rise towards $ 65-66.

Copper ($ 5.3495) fell to a low of $ 5.28 on Friday. While below $ 5.60, a further decline towards $ 5.00 remains likely.

Natural Gas ($ 4.2150) tested a low of $ 4.0650 on Friday and remains bearish towards $ 4.00-3.80 in the coming sessions.

GMT 23:50 IST 05:20 JP Tankan Large Manufacturers Index
…Expectations 15 …Previous 14

GMT 6:30 IST 12:00 IN WPI
…Expectations -0.60 …Previous -1.21

GMT 10:00 IST 15:30 EU Ind Prodn (MoM)
…Expectations 0.7 …Previous 0.2

GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 CA Inflation Y/Y
…Expectations 2.4 …Previous 2.2

GMT 9:30 IST 15:00 IN Trade bal
…Previous -41.7

DATA LAST FRIDAY
================

GMT 7:00 IST 12:30 UK Trade Bal
…Expectations -19.0 …Previous -18.9 …Actual -22.5

GMT 12:00 IST 17:30 IN CPI
0.60 …Expectations 0.70 …Previous 0.25 …Actual 0.71