The Dollar Index can decline towards 97.50-97.00 in the near term. EURUSD & EURINR can soon test 1.18 & 107 respectively. EURJPY has slipped below 182 and if the fall continues, a test to 180 can happen initially. USDJPY is trading lower within its 158-154 range. USDCNY has slipped below 7.045 and failing to see an immediate rebound can drag it further to 7.025 or even 7.00. AUDUSD is stuck within 0.67-0.66 region. GBPUSD need to see a break past 1.34 to head towards 1.35. USDINR is currently trading near 90.80 level. Watch price action closely around current level to see whether it holds below 90.80 or extends the rise to 91.00-91.25. US NFP, US Unemployment, US Avg hrly earnings & US Retail sales are some of the important data releases scheduled for today.

Dollar Index (98.27) can test 97.50-97.00 in the near term before eventually rebounding towards 100.50 in the medium term. A better clarity could be expected after the US NFP scheduled today.

EURUSD (1.1751) & EURINR (106.72) are nearing the targets of 1.18 & 107 which can get tested soon in the near term before getting peaked out.

EURJPY (181.93) has slipped slightly below 182, and if the decline extends, the pair may trade within its earlier 182-180 range. Overall, the upside target of 184 remains open as long as the pair holds above 180.

Dollar-Yen (155.70) is coming off within its 158-154 range which is likely to persist for some time while the support around 154-153 holds.

USDCNY (7.0418) achieved our target of 7.045 and extended the decline further. If an immediate rebound fails to materialize, the pair could remain vulnerable to a deeper fall toward 7.025–7.00.

Aussie (0.6645) is consolidating between 0.67-0.66 region since the last few sessions and a breakout on either side will be needed for further clarity.

Pound (1.3368) need to sustain above 1.3360/50 and rise past 1.34 to head towards 1.35 in the near term.

USDINR (90.8030) rose to a high of 90.79 and is currently hovering near that level on the NDF. If this resistance holds, a pullback toward 90.50-90.25 is likely. However, a sustained break above 90.80 could open the upside toward 91.00-91.25 in the near term

The US Treasury yields remain higher but stable. The yields have to break their immediate resistance in order to go further higher and avoid falling back again. The German yields sustain higher. View remains bullish. The yields can rise more from here. The 10Yr GoI continues to oscillate around its resistance. We will have to wait and see if it is getting a decisive rise above the resistance or falling back into its previous range.

The US 10Yr (4.17%) and 30Yr (4.84%) Treasury yields remain higher and stable. We repeat that a strong break above 4.2% (10Yr) and 4.85% (30Yr) is needed to see a rise to 4.35% (10Yr) and 5% (30Yr). Else the yields can remain vulnerable for a fall back to 4% (10Yr) and 4.6% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (2.85%) and 30Yr (3.47%) yields sustain higher. The view of seeing a rise to 2.95%-3% (10Yr) and 3.55%-3.6% (30Yr) remains intact.

The 10Yr GoI (6.5931%) continues to oscillate around 6.6%. Immediate picture is unclear. A sustained rise above 6.6% will be bullish to see 6.7%-6.75%. On the other hand, a fall below 6.55% will put it back into the 6.48%-6.6% range.

The Dow is likely to trade within 49000-48000 region while the DAX needs to hold above 24200 to rise towards 24500. Nifty is headed towards 26200-26500 while above 25800. Nikkei has broken below 50000 and could now be headed towards 49000. Shanghai continues trade within the 3800-3950 region.

The Dow (48416.56, -0.086%) is likely to trade within the 49000-48000 region for the near term. Further directional clarity will be obtained on a decisive break on either side of the mentioned range.

DAX (24229.91, +0.18%) tested 24170 but has managed to close above 24200. If the index manages to sustain trade above 24200 it can rise slowly towards 24500. Failure to sustain trade above 24200 can drag it lower to 24000.

Nifty (26027.30, -0.75%) tested 25905 before closing above 26000. While above 25800, we can expect a slow rise towards 26400.

Nikkei (49714.47, -0.90%) has declined today. While below 50000, the index can move lower towards support at 49000.

Shanghai (3,867.92, -0.55%) has important near term resistance at 3900 below which the index has scope to decline to 3800. Overall the 3800-3900 range can hold for the near term.

Brent and WTI remain weak and can extend their decline if $ 60 and $ 56 break. Gold needs a sustained break above $ 4400 to target $ 4450–$ 4500. Silver has rebounded from $ 61 and can rise towards $ 65–$ 66. Copper remains vulnerable below $ 5.60 with downside risk towards $ 5.00. Natural gas continues to stay under pressure and can slip further towards $ 3.90–$ 3.80 in the near term.

Brent ($ 60.29) and WTI ($ 56.51) are declining in line with our expectations. A break below $ 60 and $ 56 respectively would trigger further bearishness over the coming weeks.

Gold ($ 4334.20) is attempting to break above $ 4400. A sustained move above $ 4400 is needed to see a further rise towards $ 4450-$ 4500 in the near term.

Silver ($ 63.80) has bounced back from the support near $ 61. It can now head higher towards our earlier mentioned levels of $ 65-$ 66 in the coming weeks.

Copper ($ 5.3565) rose to a high of $ 5.52 but failed to sustain the rise and fell back to $ 5.41 yesterday. While below $ 5.60, a further decline towards $ 5.00 remains likely.

Natural Gas ($ 4.01) has fallen to a low of $ 3.99 yesterday in line with our expectations. A further decline towards $ 3.90-$ 3.80 can be seen in the coming sessions.

GMT 7:00 IST 12:30 UK Unemp
…Expectations 5.1 …Previous 5.0

GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 US NFP
…Expectations 50 …Previous 119

GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 US Unemployment Rate
…Expectations 4.5 …Previous 4.4

GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 US Avg Hrly Earnings
…Expectations 0.3 …Previous 0.2

GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 US Average Hourly Earnings Production & Non Supervisory Employees
…Previous 0.3

GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 US Retail Sales (MoM)
…Expectations 0.2 …Previous 0.1

DATA YESTERDAY
================

GMT 23:50 IST 05:20 JP Tankan Large Manufacturers Index
…Expectations 15 …Previous 14 …Actual 15

GMT 6:30 IST 12:00 IN WPI
-0.85 …Expectations -0.60 …Previous -1.21 …Actual -0.32

GMT 10:00 IST 15:30 EU Ind Prodn (MoM)
0.5 …Expectations 0.7 …Previous 0.2 …Actual 0.8

GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 CA Inflation Y/Y
…Expectations 2.4 …Previous 2.2 …Actual

{GMT 9:30 IST 15:00 IN Trade bal
…Previous -41.7 …Actual -24.5