The U.S. economy added 64,000 jobs in November, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%. The Dollar Index has recovered from the low of 97.86 but faces resistance near 98.50–98.75, which could cap the upside. EURUSD needs a decisive break above 1.18 to extend the rally; otherwise, a pullback toward 1.170–1.165 looks likely while resistance holds. EURINR must sustain above 107 to target 108 in the near term. EURJPY has slipped below 182, and if the decline continues, a test of 180 may follow. USDJPY is trading lower within its 158–154 range. USDCNY can extend the fall toward 7.025 or even 7.00 while below 7.045. AUDUSD remains range-bound between 0.67 and 0.66. GBPUSD needs a sustained move above 1.34 to open up 1.35–1.36. USDINR may test 91.25 in the near term, after which price action around this resistance will be crucial to watch.

Weaker than expected US unemployment at 4.6% (4.5%) led Dollar Index (98.27) to observe the low of 97.86 before recovering from there. Now, Immediate resistance is coming near 98.50-98.75 region and while it holds, the target of 97.50-97.00 is kep alive.

EURUSD (1.1738) tested the interim resistance at 1.18 before easing lower. A sustained move above 1.18 is needed to open the doors for higher levels. Otherwise, if the resistance holds, a pullback toward 1.170–1.165 looks likely.

EURINR (106.7832) surged to the high of 107.30 before cooling down a bit. A sustained move above 107 will be needed to test 108 in the near term.

EURJPY (181.80) may trade within its earlier 182-180 range if the decline continues further.

Dollar-Yen (154.87) has immediate support coming around 154.00-153.50 region and while it holds, we expect the pair to trade within 153.50-157/58 region.

USDCNY (7.0421) can extend the fall toward 7.025-7.00 while it trades below 7.045.

Aussie (0.6625) is coming off within its 0.67-0.66 range. A break below 0.66 if seen can open the doors for 0.655-0.650 as well. Until then, the range can continue to hold.

Pound (1.3368) has risen to 1.3455 so far and can test 1.35 or even 1.36 as well if it sustained above 1.34.

USDINR (90.9870) made a fresh high of 91.0775 before easing lower. A key resistance is coming near 91.25, which may be tested in the near term before a pullback occurs. However, a sustained break above 91.25 would turn the pair further bullish.

The US Treasury yields are struggling to rise. That keeps alive the danger of the yields falling back again. Unless the yields rise past their immediate resistance, the above-mentioned fall cannot be avoided. The unemployment rate in the US surged to 4.6%. The German yields remain higher and stable. The bias remains bullish to see more rise from here. The 10Yr GoI continues to hover around its resistance. Immediate picture looks unclear. The yield has to break its resistance decisively in order to go higher.

The US 10Yr (4.15%) and 30Yr (4.82%) Treasury yields are struggling to breach 4.2% and 4.85% respectively. That keeps the door open for the yields to fall back towards 4% (10Yr) and 4.6% (30Yr). Only a decisive break above 4.2% (10Yr) and 4.85% (30Yr) will take them higher to 4.35% (10Yr) and 5% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (2.84%) and 30Yr (3.46%) yields remain stable. While above 2.8% (10Yr) and 3.4% (30Yr), the bias will remain bullish to see a rise to 2.95%-3% (10Yr) and 3.55%-3.6% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.5745%) is still hovering around 6.6% and remains mixed. View remains the same. A strong rise above 6.6% can take it up to 6.7%-6.75%. A fall below 6.55% on the other hand will put it back into the 6.48%-6.6% range. Wait and watch.

The Dow is likely to rise towards 49000 while above 48000. The DAX is holding above 24000 and could soon rise towards 24200-24500. Nifty has dipped again yesterday and could fluctuate within the broad 25600/800-26200/500 region unless a breakout is seen on either side. Nikkei needs to hold above 49000 else can drag itself down to 48000-47000. Shanghai continues trade within the 3800-3950 region.

The Dow (48114.26 -0.62%) tested 47946 in line with our expectations of seeing a fall in the index. A rebound above 48000, can take the index back towards 49000.

DAX (24076.87, -0.63%) tested 24011 yesterday . While above 24000, the index can slowly move up towards 24200-24500 soon. .

Nifty (25860.10, -0.64%) fell sharply again yesterday. The index is likely to trade within a broad 25600/800-26250/400 region for the next few weeks unless a decisive breakout is seen on either side of the range.

Nikkei (49379.02, -0.0086%) has declined to test support near 49000 as mentioned yesterday. The index will have to necessarily hold above 49000 to see a likely rebound else can become vulnerable to a sharp decline towards 48000-47000.

Shanghai (3,831.26, +0.17%) is managing to trade above 3800. The near term range of 3800-3900 may continue to hold for the near term.

Brent and WTI have broken key supports near $ 60 and $ 56, remaining under pressure with further downside likely towards $ 57-$ 55 and $ 52-$ 50 respectively. Gold is trying to break above $ 4400, and a sustained move can push it towards $ 4450-$ 4500. Silver has strengthened above $ 65 and can rise towards $ 67-$ 68. Copper stays weak below $ 5.60 with scope to fall towards $ 5.00. Natural Gas remains bearish with downside seen towards $ 3.80-$ 3.70.

Brent ($ 59.51) has broken below the crucial support at $ 60 and plunged to a low of $ 58.72 yesterday. Concerns over global energy demand and expectations of a worldwide oil glut are weighing on crude prices. A further decline towards $ 57-$ 55 can take place in the near term.

WTI ($ 55.72) broke below $ 56 and fell sharply to a low of $ 54.98 yesterday. A further decline towards $ 52-$ 50 looks likely over the coming sessions.

Gold ($ 4345.80) is attempting to break above $ 4400. A sustained move above $ 4400 is needed to see a further rise towards $ 4450-$ 4500 in the near term.

Silver ($ 65.69) has bounced back above $ 65 in line with our expectations. A further rise towards $ 67-$ 68 can be seen in the coming sessions.

Copper ($ 5.3860) has dipped. While below $ 5.60, a further decline towards $ 5.00 remains likely.

Natural Gas ($ 3.9630) continues to fall in line with our expectations, and a further decline towards $ 3.80-$ 3.70 can be seen in the coming sessions.

GMT 7:00 IST 12:30 UK CPI Y/Y
…Expectations 3.5 …Previous 3.6

GMT 9:00 IST 14:30 GER IFO Business Climate
…Expectations 88.5 …Previous 88.1

GMT 9:00 IST 14:30 GER IFO Business Situations
…Expectations 86.0 …Previous 85.6

GMT 9:00 IST 14:30 GER IFO Business Expectations
…Expectations 91.0 …Previous 90.6

GMT 10:00 IST 15:30 EU CPI (YoY)
2.5 …Expectations 2.2 …Previous 0.0

DATA YESTERDAY
================

GMT 7:00 IST 12:30 UK Unemp
…Expectations 5.1 …Previous 5.0 …Actual 5.1

GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 US NFP
…Expectations 50 …Previous 119 …Actual 64

GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 US Unemployment Rate
…Expectations 4.5 …Previous 4.4 …Actual 4.6

GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 US Avg Hrly Earnings
…Expectations 0.3 …Previous 0.2 …Actual 0.1

GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 US Average Hourly Earnings Production & Non Supervisory Employees
…Previous 0.3 …Actual 0.3

{GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 US Retail Sales (MoM)
…Expectations 0.2 …Previous 0.1 …Actual 0.1