The Dollar Index is facing resistance near 98.50, and while below this level, the downside targets of 97.50-97.00 remain open. EURUSD is likely to trade within the 1.17-1.18 range. EURINR has scope to rebound toward 107 as long as it holds above 105.50. EURJPY has moved above 182, and if sustained, can test 184 in the near term. USDJPY is expected to remain range-bound between 154 and 158 for some time. USDCNY can extend the decline toward 7.025 or even 7.00 while below 7.045. AUDUSD may fall toward 0.655–0.650 while below 0.66. GBPUSD can consolidate within the 1.330-1.345 region before a breakout occurs. USDINR is trading near 90.30 region on the NDF. A range of 90-91 is expected to hold for a while. BOE & ECB meeting, US CPI, US Philifed Index & US TICS are some of the important events scheduled for the day.

Dollar Index (98.421) faces immediate resistance near 98.50, and while this holds, the downside target of 97.50–97.00 remains intact. A sustained move above 98.50–99.00 would be required to negate the bearish bias.

EURUSD (1.1740) tested 1.1702 before rebounding. For now, the pair can trade within the 1.17–1.18 range until a breakout occurs on either side.

EURINR (106.1377) came down sharply to the low of 105.65 due to the Rupee strength seen yesterday. Currently it has recovered well and while above 105.50, the pair can attempt to rise back towards 107 or even higher.

EURJPY (181.80) limited the downside to 181.57 and started rising. While above 182, a further test to 184 can happen in the coming sessions.

Dollar-Yen (154.87) has recovered well from the low of 154.51 but is facing immediate resistance in the 156–157 zone. Overall, while above 154, a broad range of 154–157/158 is likely to persist in the near term. Better clarity is expected after tomorrow’s BOJ meeting, where a 25-bps rate cut is anticipated.

USDCNY (7.0420) can extend the fall toward 7.025-7.00 while it trades below 7.045.

Aussie (0.6596) has slipped below 0.66 and if sustained, can extend the fall towards 0.655-0.650 in the coming sessions.

Pound (1.3364) declined sharply to 1.3311 after softer UK CPI at 3.3% (vs. 3.5% expected) boosted expectations of a BOE rate cut today. The pair may consolidate within the 1.330–1.345 range for some time before a breakout occurs.

USDINR (90.2810) fell sharply to a low of 90.01 on possible RBI intervention. Overall, a near-term range of 90–91 is likely to hold. A decisive break below 90 would be needed to open up lower levels.

The US Treasury yields remain lower. A strong from here breaking above their resistance is needed to move higher and avoid a fall. The recent price action indicates that a fall is more likely. The German yields have moved up. The bullish view is intact. The yields can rise more in the coming days. The 10Yr GoI remains volatile around its resistance. The immediate outlook remains mixed. A sustained rise above the immediate resistance is needed to see more rise.

The US 10Yr (4.14%) and 30Yr (4.82%) Treasury yields remain lower. While below 4.2% (10Yr) and 4.85% (30Yr), the downside will remain open for a fall to 4% (10Yr) and 4.6% (30Yr). A strong rise above 4.2% (10Yr) and 4.85% (30Yr) is needed for a rise to 4.35% (10Yr) and 5% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (2.86%) and 30Yr (3.48%) yields have moved higher. The bullish view remains intact. The yields can rise to 2.95%-3% (10Yr) and 3.55%-3.6% (30Yr) while above 2.8% (10Yr) and 3.4% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.5995%) has been volatile over the last few days. A sustained rise above 6.6% is needed to see a rise to 6.7%-6.75%. A fall below 6.55% will negate this rise and drag the yield down to 6.5%-6.48%.

The Dow and DAX seem to be declining and could have chances of breaking below 47500 and 23500 to taregt lower levels of 47000-46000 and 23000 respectively. Nifty is likely to rebound from 25600 and bounce back towars 26000 or higher. Nikkei needs to hold above 49000 else can drag itself down to 48000-47000. Shanghai continues trade within the 3800-3950 region.

The Dow (47885.97, -0.47%) is declining from 49000. Failure to hold above 47500 will drag the index further down towards 47000-46000.

DAX (23960.59, -0.48%) is trading within 23500-24200 region for now. Unless a break past 24200 is seen again, view is bearish for a fall towards 23000.

Nifty (25818.55, -0.16%) closed lower yesterday. A rebound can be expected towards 26000 or higher while above 25600.

Nikkei (48877.90, -1.28%) has declined as expected, breaking below 49000. If the index does not bounce back immediately, it can get dragged down towards 48000-47000.

Shanghai (3,860.40,  -0.26%) is stuck in the 3850-3900 region. The index continues its trade within the broader 3800-3900 zone. Immediate resistance is seen at 3900 below which the index can again dip back towards 3800.

Crude prices have bounced slightly, but the overall bias remains bearish with downside risks towards $ 57–$ 55 (Brent) and $ 52–$ 50 (WTI). Gold needs a sustained break above $ 4400 to rise towards $ 4450–$ 4500. Silver has made a fresh high and can extend gains towards $ 68. Copper is likely to stay range-bound between $ 5.6 and $ 5.3. Natural gas remains bearish towards $ 3.8–$ 3.6 while below $ 4.2.

Brent ($ 59.84) and WTI ($ 56.03) have bounced back, but the outlook remains bearish towards $ 57–$ 55 and $ 52–$ 50 respectively over the coming sessions.

Gold ($ 4365.40) is attempting to break above $ 4400. A sustained move above $ 4400 is needed to see a further rise towards $ 4450–$ 4500 in the near term.

Silver ($ 66.48) , as expected, tested a fresh high of $ 67.18 yesterday. A further move up towards $ 68 can be seen in the coming sessions.

Copper ($ 5.4020) can trade within a range of $ 5.6–$ 5.3 for some time until a breakout occurs on either side.

Natural Gas ($ 4.1060) has bounced back above $ 4. While below $ 4.2, the view remains bearish towards $ 3.8–$ 3.6 in the near term.

12:00 17:30 BOE Mtg
…Expectations 3.75 …Previous 4.00

12:00 17:30 UK BOE Minutes
…Expectations 0-5-4 …Previous 0-4-5

13:15 18:45 ECB Mtg
…Expectations 2.15 …Previous 2.15

13:30 19:00 US CPI (MoM)
…Expectations 0.2 …Previous 0.3

13:30 19:00 US Core CPI (MoM)
0.1 …Expectations 0.3 …Previous 0.2

13:30 19:00 US Philifed Index
…Expectations 3.2 …Previous -1.7

14:00 02:30 US TICS (Net foreign purch of long-term Sec)
…Expectations 120.7 …Previous 179.8

DATA YESTERDAY
================

GMT 7:00 IST 12:30 UK CPI Y/Y
…Expectations 3.5 …Previous 3.6 …Actual 3.3

GMT 9:00 IST 14:30 GER IFO Business Climate
…Expectations 88.5 …Previous 88.1 …Actual 87.6

GMT 9:00 IST 14:30 GER IFO Business Situations
…Expectations 86.0 …Previous 85.6 …Actual 85.6

GMT 9:00 IST 14:30 GER IFO Business Expectations
…Expectations 91.0 …Previous 90.6 …Actual 89.7

GMT 10:00 IST 15:30 EU CPI (YoY)
2.5 …Expectations 2.2 …Previous 0.0 …Actual 2.1