The BOE delivered a 25 bps rate cut, lowering the policy rate to 3.75%, while the ECB kept its policy rate unchanged at 2.15%. While below 98.50, the targets of 97.50-97.00 are kept open in Dollar Index. EURUSD is trading lower within the 1.18–1.17 range. EURINR can test 105.50 before attempting a rebound. EURJPY has scope to move towards 184–185 in the near term. USDJPY is expected to remain range-bound between 154 and 158 for some time; markets will closely watch the BOJ meeting scheduled today. USDCNY can extend its decline towards 7.025 or even 7.00 while below 7.045. AUDUSD may slip towards 0.655–0.650 while trading below 0.665–0.670. GBPUSD can consolidate within the 1.330–1.345 region before a breakout occurs. USDINR is likely to trade within the 90–91 range for a while. US Existing Home sales data release is scheduled today.

Dollar Index (98.435) is hovering below the immediate resistance near 98.50. a sustained move above 98.50–99.00 will be needed to bring higher levels into picture. For now, while below 98.50, the downside target of 97.50–97.00 are kept open.

EURUSD (1.1728) pair is trading lower within the 1.18–1.17 range. A decisive break on either side is needed for clearer direction. A break below 1.17 could open room for a decline towards 1.165–1.160.

EURINR (105.7748) is coming off and can test the support near 105.50 before rebounding later.

EURJPY (182.59) is rising gradually and can test 184-185 in the coming days. Immediate downside can be limited to 182-181.

Dollar-Yen (155.71) has immediate resistance in the 156–157 zone. Overall, while above 154, a broad range of 154–157/158 is likely to persist in the near term. Better clarity is expected after the BOJ meeting scheduled today, wherein a 25-bps rate cut is anticipated.

USDCNY (7.0403) can extend the fall toward 7.025-7.00 while it trades below 7.045.

Aussie (0.6612) has a resistance coming between 0.665-0.670 and while it holds, a fall to 0.655-0.650 can happen in the near term.

The BOE went ahead with the 25 bps rate cut thereby bringing the policy rate down to 3.75%. Pound (1.3364) can consolidate within the 1.330–1.345 range for some time before a breakout occurs.

USDINR (90.1580) tested 90.0375 before recovering a bit. Overall, a near-term range of 90–91 is likely to hold. A decisive break below 90 would be needed to open up lower levels.

The US Treasury yields remain lower and vulnerable to fall more in the coming days. They need some strong trigger to gain strength and break their resistance to go up. The German yields sustain higher. View remains bullish, and there is room to rise more. The 10Yr GoI is stuck inside a narrow range below its resistance. Immediate outlook is mixed. A decisive rise above the resistance is needed to go higher and avoid falling back. Wait and watch.

The US 10Yr (4.13%) and 30Yr (4.81%) Treasury yields remain lower and vulnerable for a fall to 4% (10Yr) and 4.6% (30Yr). They have to rise past 4.2% (10Yr) and 4.85% (30Yr) to negate this fall and go up to 4.35% (10Yr) and 5% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (2.85%) and 30Yr (3.48%) yields remain higher and stable. View remains bullish to see a rise to 2.95%-3% (10Yr) and 3.55%-3.6% (30Yr). Support is at 2.8% (10Yr) and 3.4% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.5738%) is stuck below 6.6% over the last few days. Immediate outlook is unclear. But, unless we get a sustained rise above 6.6%, a break below 6.55% and a fall to 6.5%-6.48% cannot be avoided. We will have to wait and watch.

The Dow and DAX have risen but the Dow has closed below 48000 while the DAX has managed to close just below 24200. Both indices will have to move up from here to prevent decline back to 48000-47000 and 24000-23500 levels. The DAX can head towards 24500 on a break above 24200. Nifty is likely to rebound from 25600-25500 and bounce back towards 26000 or higher. Nikkei has risen well above 49000 today and needs to sustain the upmove to prevent falling back towards 48000-47000. Above 49000, the view is bullish towards 50000-51000. Shanghai continues trade within the 3800-3950 region.

The Dow (47951.85, +0.14%) tested 48365 on lower US CPI data but later closed below 48000. Failure to sustain and rebound above 47500 can lead to a decline towards 47000-46000.

DAX (24199.50, +1%) moved up by a percentage to close just below the upper end of the 23500-24200 range we have been mentioning over the past few editions. Now a sustained trade past 24200 is needed for a further rise to 24500 and higher eventually. Else, a decline back to 24000-23000 again cannot be negated.

Nifty (25815.55, -0.012%) closed marginally above 25,800 yesterday. As long as it stays below 26,000, a near-term test of 25,600-25,500 looks likely before a rise towards 26,000 or higher is seen eventually.

Nikkei (49367.84, +0.75%) has risen today, moving above 49000. While the index manages to hold above 49000, there can be scope to rise towards 50000-51000 again. Note that 49000-48500 is a crucial near term support region. Any break below 48500 would open chances of a decline towards 48000-47000.

Shanghai (3,879.48,  +0.080%) is moving up within the 3850-3900 region. The index continues its trade within the broader 3800-3950 zone. Immediate resistance is seen at 3900 and higher at 3950 below which the index can again dip back towards 3800.

Brent and WTI remain weak and can fall further towards $ 57–$ 55 and $ 52–$ 50 respectively. Gold needs a sustained break above $ 4400 to rise towards $ 4450–$ 4500. Silver’s broader bullish outlook towards $ 68 remains intact for now. Copper may stay range-bound between $ 5.6-$ 5.3. Natural Gas faces further downside towards $ 3.85–$ 3.80 after rejection near $ 4.21.

Brent ($ 59.08) and WTI ($ 55.85) have fallen back in line with our expectations and can decline further towards $ 57–$ 55 and $ 52–$ 50 respectively over the coming sessions.

Gold ($ 4350.60) is attempting to break above $ 4400. A sustained move above $ 4400 is needed to see a further rise towards $ 4450–$ 4500 in the near term.

Silver ($ 65.05) has reversed slightly, but the outlook remains intact for a rise towards $ 68 in the coming sessions.

Copper ($ 5.4470) can trade within a range of $ 5.6–$ 5.3 for some time until a breakout occurs on either side.

Natural Gas ($ 3.92) rose to a high of $ 4.21 but faced rejection, as mentioned earlier, and fell sharply to close at $ 3.90 yesterday. A further decline towards $ 3.85–$ 3.80 can be seen.

GMT 23:30 IST 05:00 JP CPI
3.1 …Expectations 3.0 …Previous 3.0

GMT 0:05 IST 05:35 UK Cons Conf
…Expectations -18.0 …Previous -19.0

GMT 3:00 IST 08:30 BOJ Meeting
…Expectations 0.75 …Previous 0.50

GMT 14:00 IST 19:30 US Existing Home Sales
…Expectations 4150 …Previous 4100

DATA YESTERDAY
================

GMT 12:00 IST 17:30 BOE Mtg
…Expectations 3.75 …Previous 4.00 …Actual 3.75

GMT 12:00 IST 17:30 UK BOE Minutes
…Expectations 0-5-4 …Previous 0-4-5 …Actual 0-5-4

GMT 13:15 IST 18:45 ECB Mtg
…Expectations 2.15 …Previous 2.15 …Actual 2.15

GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 US CPI (MoM)
…Expectations 0.2 …Previous 0.3 …Actual 0.2

GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 US Core CPI (MoM)
0.1 …Expectations 0.3 …Previous 0.2 …Actual 0.2

GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 US Philifed Index
…Expectations 3.2 …Previous -1.7 …Actual -10.2

GMT 14:00 IST 02:30 US TICS (Net foreign purch of long-term Sec)
…Expectations 120.7 …Previous 173.2 …Actual 17.5