The Dollar index & EURUSD can continue to trade between 99-98 & 1.18-1.17 region respectively before a breakout occurs. EURINR has a scope to test 104.00-103.50 level while it trades below 105.50. EURJPY & USDJPY tested 184.82 & 157.78 in line with our view of pairs testing 185 & 158 respectively. Currently both are coming off and the respective support near 182 & 156 an get tested before a rebound occurs. USDCNY can extend its decline towards 7.025 or even 7.00 while below 7.045. AUDUSD may slip towards 0.655–0.650 while trading below 0.665–0.670. GBPUSD can consolidate within the 1.330–1.345 region before a breakout occurs. USDINR is near 89.5520 on the NDF. Immediate support is coming near 89.00-88.80 which can be tested initially before the pair attempts to rise back later on.

Dollar Index (98.601) is consolidating between 99-98 region and a sustained move above 99.00 will be needed to bring higher levels into picture. Until then, the range can continue to hold.

EURUSD (1.1728) pair continues to trade lower within the 1.18–1.17 range. A decisive break on either side is needed for clearer direction. A break below 1.17 could open room for a decline towards 1.165–1.160.

EURINR (104.9715) slipped below 105 due to Rupee strength. Currently it has recovered from the low of 104.29 but while below 105.50, there is further room in the charts for the it to test the deeper support between 104.00-103.50 before attempting to bounce back later.

EURJPY (184.29) initially rose to 184.82 on yen weakness. Immediate resistance near 185 is holding, and if the decline extends, the pair could test 183–182 before rebounding later.

The BOJ raised the interest rates by 25 bps thereby bringing it up to 0.75%. Dollar-Yen (155.71) jumped sharply to a high of 157.78 as Governor Ueda struck a cautious tone. The pair is now easing from the highs and could test support near 156 before attempting a rebound toward 158 and higher.

USDCNY (7.0403) remains muted near 7.04 region. For now, we retain our view of seeing a fall toward 7.025-7.00 while it trades below 7.045.

Aussie (0.6621) is attempting to rise back but it has a resistance coming between 0.665-0.670 region. While it holds, a fall to 0.655-0.650 can happen in the near term.

Pound (1.3396) can continue to consolidate within the 1.330–1.345 range for some time before a breakout occurs.

USDINR (89.5520) slipped sharply to a low of 89.24 on Friday due to RBI intervention. Immediate support is seen near the 89.00–88.80 zone, which could be tested if the decline extends further before a rebound occurs later on.

The US Treasury yields are holding above their support. A sideways consolidation looks likely for some time now. But while below the near-term resistance, the chances of a fall will still remain alive. The German yields are moving up in line with our expectation. The bullish view remains intact. The 10Yr GoI is stuck inside a narrow range for some time now. We will have to wait for the range breakout to get clarity on the next move.

The US 10Yr (4.16%) and 30Yr (4.84%) Treasury yields are holding above their support. 4.1%-4.2% (10Yr) and 4.8%-4.9% (30Yr) can possibly be the trading range for now. While below 4.2% (10Yr) and 4.9% (30Yr) the chances of a fall to 4% (10Yr) and 4.6% (30Yr) will remain alive.

The German 10Yr (2.89%) and 30Yr (3.53%) yields have risen sharply. The rise to 2.95%-3% (10Yr) and 3.55%-3.6% (30Yr) is happening in line with our expectation.

The 10Yr GoI (6.6017%) is oscillating between 6.55% and 6.6250% for some time now. A breakout on either side of this range will decide whether the yield can rise to 6.7%-6.75% or fall to 6.5%-6.48%.

All indices have moved up and look bullish for the near term. The Dow and DAX can be headed towards 49000 and 24500-24600 respectively while the Nifty can head towards 26600 on a sustained break past 26000. Nikkei and Shanghai too have risen well and look bullish towards 51000-52000 and 4000-4100 on a break past 50500-50600 and 3950 respectively.

The Dow (48134.89, +0.38%) has risen well and while it sustains above 48000, it can head towards 49000 in the next few sessions.

DAX (24288.40, +0.37%) has also risen well along with a rise in the Dow. The index will have to sustain upmove to test immediate resistance near 24400-24500 before pausing for rejection.

Nifty (25966.40, +0.58%) has managed to rise back above 25600 and now, a sustained break above 26000 is needed for a gradual rise towards 26600.

Nikkei (50472.19, +1.95%) has closed just below immediate resistance in the daily charts. A sustained rise above 50500-50600 will take the index further up towards 51000-52000.

Shanghai (3,910.81,  +0.52%) has moved above 3900 and needs to rise past 3950 to head towards 4000-4100 in the coming days. Watch price action near 3950.

Brent and WTI have bounced back on geopolitical concerns, but while below $ 62 and $ 58, the downside towards $ 57–$ 55 and $ 52–$ 50 remains open. Gold needs a sustained break above $ 4400 to extend rise towards $ 4450–$ 4500. Silver remains bullish with scope to test $ 70. Copper is likely to stay range-bound between $ 5.6 and $ 5.3. Natural gas remains bearish towards $ 3.85–$ 3.80 while below $ 4.40–$ 4.50.

Brent ($ 60.99) has bounced back amid heightened geopolitical risks in Venezuela and Russia. While it trades below $ 62, the view remains intact for a decline towards $ 57–$ 55 in the coming weeks.

WTI ($ 57.05) has bounced back, but while it holds below $ 58, the view remains intact for a fall towards $ 52–$ 50 over the coming sessions.

Gold ($ 4415.20) needs a sustained break above $ 4400 to see a further rise towards $ 4450–$ 4500 in the near term.

Silver ($ 69.08) has risen in line with our expectation. Today it has surged to a high of $ 69.18 so far and can continue its bullishness further towards $ 70.

Copper ($ 5.5210) can trade within a range of $ 5.6–$ 5.3 for some time until a breakout occurs on either side.

Natural Gas ($ 4.06) has seen a bounce back to $ 3.98 on Friday. As long as it holds below $ 4.40–$ 4.50, our view remains intact for a decline towards $ 3.85–$ 3.80 in the near term.

GMT 7:00 IST 12:30 UK GDP
…Expectations 0.2 …Previous 0.4

GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US GDP
…Previous 3.8 –

DATA LAST FRIDAY
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GMT 23:30 IST 05:00 JP CPI
3.1 …Expectations 3.0 …Previous 3.0 …Actual 2.9

GMT 0:05 IST 05:35 UK Cons Conf
…Expectations -18.0 …Previous -19.0 …Actual -17

GMT 3:00 IST 08:30 BOJ Meeting
…Expectations 0.75 …Previous 0.50 …Actual 0.75

GMT 14:00 IST 19:30 US Existing Home Sales
…Expectations 4150 …Previous 4100 …Actual