The Dollar Index is trading lower within its 99-98 range. Need to see whether the support around 98 holds or not. While EURUSD is headed towards the resistance at 1.18. EURINR can trade within 104-106/107 region for some time. EURJPY can test 183/82, while USDJPY can trade within the broad 154-158 range for some time. USDCNY can extend its decline towards 7.025 or even 7.00 while below 7.045. AUDUSD is rising within its 0.66-0.67 range. GBPUSD surged above 1.345 and while the rise sustains, a further test to 1.35-1.36 looks possible in the near term. USDINR can trade within 90.25-89.50 region for some time. US GDP, US Durable goods, US Industrial production, US Capacity utilisation & US Consumer confidence are some of the key releases scheduled for today.

Dollar Index (98.10) is nearing the support near 98 level. A break below 98 if seen would shift the focus to 97.50-97.00 levels initially. Watch price action closely to see whether the range remains intact or not.

EURUSD (1.1775) is approaching the resistance at 1.18 which can be tested soon. Thereafter, whether the rise extends further or the 1.18-1.17 range remains uncertain at the moment.

EURINR (104.9715) need to see a sustained move above 105.50 to bring 106-107 back into picture. Overall, a range of 104-106/107 can hold for some time.

EURJPY (184.16) is coming off in line with our view and can test 183–182 before rebounding later.

Dollar-Yen (156.73) has immediate support near 156 which can be tested soon. Overall a narrow range of 156-158 & a broad range of 154-158 is likely to hold for some time before a breakout occurs on either side.

USDCNY (7.0337) is declining gradually and our target of 7.025-7.00 can get tested while it trades below 7.045.

Aussie (0.6667) continues to rise within its 0.66-0.67 range. Interim resistance can be seen at 0.6680-0.6700 & higher at 0.68 which can cap the upside.

Pound (1.3481) has finally risen past 1.345 and while the rise sustains, a further test to 1.35-1.46 can happen in the coming days before getting peaked out.

USDINR (89.57) tested 88.4425 before bouncing back later. Immediate resistance is seen near 90.00–90.25 and while this holds, a range of 90.25–89.50 can persist for some time.

The US Treasury yields remain stable. For now, the yields are likely to oscillate in a range. A bullish breakout of this range is needed to avoid a fresh fall. The German Yields sustain higher. View remains bullish and more is possible from here. The 10Yr GoI has made a bullish breakout. That strengthens the momentum and clears the way for more rise.

The US 10Yr (4.16%) and 30Yr (4.83%) Treasury yields remain stable. As mentioned yesterday, 4.1%-4.2% (10Yr) and 4.8%-4.9% (30Yr) can be the possible range for now. A rise above 4.2% (10Yr) and 4.9% (30Yr) is needed to negate the fall to 4% (10Yr) and 4.6% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (2.90%) and 30Yr (3.53%) yields sustain higher. The view remains bullish. There is room for a rise to 2.95%-3% (10Yr) and 3.55%-3.6% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.6678%) has surged above 6.6250%. That clears the way for the rise to 6.7%-6.75%. Support will now be around 6.6%.

Equity indices are looking bullish for the near term with the Dow and DAX targeting 49000 and 24500-24600 respectively while the Nifty can slowly reach towards 26400-26600. Nikkei and Shanghai can rise towards 51000-52000 and 4000-4100 respectively.

The Dow (48362.68, +0.47%) continues to rise in line with our expectations. The index can head towards 49000 in the next few sessions.

DAX (24283.97, -0.018%) has been stable yesterday but while it holds above 24000, a slow rise to 24400-24500 looks possible before pausing for a rejection.

Nifty (26172.40, +0.79%) rise well yesterday in line with our expectations. A further rise above 26200 will take it higher to 26400-26600 in the near term before a correction is seen.

Nikkei (50449.21, +0.093%) needs to break past 50500-50600 and sustain higher to reach towards 51000-52000. Else it can fall back towards 50000 or lower. Watch price action near 50500/600 region.

Shanghai (3,920.67,  +0.084%) has risen yesterday and looks poised for a rise to 4000-4100 in the near term.

Crude prices have risen on geopolitical risks but face resistance. Brent and WTI are likely to see pullbacks towards $ 60–$ 58 and $ 56–$ 54 respectively. Gold remains strong after breaking above $ 4400 and can extend gains towards $ 4600–$ 4650. Silver stays bullish with scope to test $ 70–$ 71. Copper may remain range-bound between $ 5.6 and $ 5.3 until a breakout occurs. Natural Gas remains weak below $ 4.50 with downside risk towards $ 3.60–$ 3.50.

Brent ($ 62.02) has risen to test a high of $ 62.17 yesterday on geopolitical risks in Venezuela and the Ukraine–Russia conflict. Immediate resistance is seen near current levels and while this holds, we expect a pullback towards $ 60–$ 58 over the coming weeks.

WTI ($ 57.93) has risen further to test its immediate resistance near $ 58. While this level holds, a pullback towards $ 56–$ 54 can be seen over the coming weeks.

Gold ($ 4520.40) is moving higher in line with our expectation after breaking above $ 4400 and can extend the rise towards $ 4600–$ 4650 in the coming sessions.

Silver ($ 69.56) is moving up in line with our expectations and remains bullish towards $ 70–$ 71.

Copper ($ 5.4955) has risen and can sustain within a range of $ 5.6–$ 5.3 for some time until a breakout occurs on either side.

Natural Gas ($ 4.00) as mentioned yesterday, fell to a low of $ 3.79. While it remains below $ 4.50, a further decline towards $ 3.60–$ 3.50 looks likely in the near term.

GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 US GDP
…Expectations 3.2 …Previous 3.8

GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 US Durable Goods Orders
…Expectations 0.2 …Previous 0.5

GMT 14:15 IST 19:45 US Industrial Production
…Previous 0.1 –
GMT 14:15 IST 19:45 US Capacity Utilization
…Expectations 75.9 …Previous 75.9

GMT 15:00 IST 20:30 US Cons Conf
…Expectations 91.7 …Previous 88.7

DATA YESTERDAY
===============

{GMT 7:00 IST 12:30 UK GDP
…Expectations 0.1 …Previous 0.1 …Actual 0.1