The Dollar Index has resistance coming near 98.25. Need to see whether it holds and pushes the index to 97-96 or takes it higher. EURUSD need to see a confirm break past 1.18 to bring higher levels into picture, else a dip towards 1.17–1.16 looks likely. EURINR has bounced from support and can rise towards 107. EURJPY & USDJPY can remain range bound between 182-186 & 154-158 region for some time. USDCNY has risen from the support near 7.00 but whether the rise sustains or not will have to be seen. Aussie is rising towards 0.68 before a possible reversal. Pound can attempt to rise towards 1.36 while it trades above 1.3450. USDINR can trade within 89.50-90.25 region.

Dollar Index (97.94) has immediate resistance coming around 98.25, a sustained move above which will be needed to bring 99 and higher levels into picture. Else, there is room for a further decline towards 97-96 before a rebound is seen in the medium term.

EURUSD (1.1782) has support coming at 1.1750, above which the pair has a scope to rise towards 1.19-1.20, break past 1.18 will confirm the rise. Only if the pair holds below 1.18 and skips below 1.175, can fall towards 1.17-1.16 levels.

EURINR (105.8642) has risen from immediate support near 105.00-105.50, above which there is enough room for a rise towards 107.

EURJPY (184.39) can move towards the upper end of its 182-186 range while it trades above 184.

Dollar-Yen (156.47) can test 158 while it trades above 156. Overall, a broad 154-158 range can hold for now.

USDCNY (7.0145) tested 7.005 before rebounding. It would be crucial to see if the pair holds above the current support at 7.00 and rise further or whether it extends the fall towards 6.95.

Aussie (0.6717) is moving up and can soon test the interim resistance near 0.68. While this holds, a reversal might take place over the coming weeks.

Pound (1.3503) has immediate support coming at 1.345 and while it holds, the pair can attempt to rise towards 1.36 in the coming sessions.

USDINR (89.8010) is moving higher within its 89.50-90.25 range which can hold for some time.

Watch crucial supports coming up on the US Treasury yields near 4.10% (10Yr) and 4.80% (30Yr). A break below supports, if seen can take the yields towards 4.05% and 4.75% this week before a rebound is seen later. The German yields have moved up well and can target 2.95/3% (10yr) and 3.55/3.6% (30yr) soon. The Indian 10Yr GOI did rise on Friday after the initial decline seen earlier last week. While above support at 6.50%, the yield can have some scope for a rise towards 6.6-6.65% in the coming days.

The US 10Yr (4.128%) has dipped and could test the lower end of the 4.1%-4.2% range. Failure to hold above 4.10% within the current fall could open room on the downside towards 4.05%. Watch price action carefully near 4.10%. The 30Yr (4.809%) Treasury yield has a stronger support at 4.75% which can be tested in the next few sessions on a break below 4.80%. The 30Yr can either bounce from 4.80% itself or from lower levels of 4.75% after a week or so.

The German 10Yr (2.8624%) and 30Yr (3.5027%) yields have risen. While the rise sustains, the yields can rise towards 2.95/3% and 3.55-3.6% respectively. Any decline from current levels itself can bring back 2.8% (10yr) and 3.4% (30yr) on the downside initially as expected last week.

The 10Yr GoI (6.5637%) rose on Friday. While above support at 6.5%, the yield can rise towards 6.6-6.65% in the coming days.

The Dow is expected to trade within 48000-49000 for now before eventually breaking higher while Dax has resistance near 24400 and 25000 below which trade could be subdued. Nifty has support at 26000 and lower at 25800 above which there can be decent chances of a rise towards 26300-26600 in the next few weeks. Nikkei and Shanghai also look bullish and could have room for a rise towards 52000 and 4100-4200 respectively in Jan-26.

The Dow (48710.97, -0.041%) is likely to trade within the 48000-49000 region for the near term. Thereafter, a decisive break above 49000 is needed for the index to rise further towards 50000.

DAX (24340.06, +0.23%) has a very near term resistance at 24400 and higher at 25000. A break above 24400, if seen can take the index to 25000 in the coming days before a rejection is seen towards 24000-23500 again in the medium term. A sustained and decisive break above 25000 is needed in the longer run for Dax to turn bullish for an upside rally.

Nifty (26042.30, -0.38%) has immediate support at 26000 and lower near 25900. While the support is held, Nifty has scope to bounce back towards 26300. Thereafter, a rise past 26300 can trigger further rise to 26600 gradually.

Nikkei (50532.27, -0.43%) broke above 50530 last week but has again dipped today. Unless a sustained rise above 50530-50600 is seen, Nikkei may remain stable within the 50600-49500 region. But in the medium term charts, there is room for a rise towards 52000-54000 in the next 1-2 months.

Shanghai (3963.68, +0.10%) has been rising well from 3800 and on a break above 4000, the upper targets of 4100-4200 would be open for the coming weeks.

Brent and WTI have turned lower on easing geopolitical concerns and can extend the decline towards $ 59 and $ 55 in the near term. Gold remains steady and bullish, with scope to rise towards $ 4600–$ 4650. Silver needs a sustained move above $ 80 to regain momentum, else it can slip back to $ 76–$ 74. Copper is facing resistance near current levels and needs a clear break to move towards $ 6.10–$ 6.20, failing which a pullback to $ 5.80–$ 5.70 is possible. Natural gas remains bearish below $ 4 and can fall further towards $ 3.60–$ 3.40.

Brent ($ 61.20) has fallen sharply to a low of $ 60.56 on reports of possible progress on a Ukraine–Russia peace deal. Ukrainian President Zelensky said on Friday that he expects to meet President Trump on Sunday in Florida. A further decline towards $ 60–$ 59 can be seen in the near term.

WTI ($ 57.27) , contrary to our expectations, has reversed sharply to a low of $ 56.65 on Friday. A further decline towards $ 56–$ 55 looks likely in the near term.

Gold ($ 4532.70) is moving up steadily in line with our expectation and can extend the rally towards $ 4600–$ 4650 in the coming sessions.

Silver ($ 77.79) tested a high of $ 79.70 on Friday as expected. Today it has seen a high of $ 82.67 but has fallen back sharply from there to current levels. A sustained rise above $ 80 is needed to continue the bullish momentum towards $ 84–$ 85, else it can fall back to $ 76–$ 74.

Copper ($ 5.9010) surged to a high of $ 5.88 on Friday in line with our expectations. Immediate resistance is coming near current levels, which needs to be broken to see a further rise towards $ 6.10–$ 6.20. Else it can fall back to $ 5.80–$ 5.70.

Natural Gas ($ 3.92) bounced back to $ 3.94 on Friday. While below $ 4.00 the view remains intact for a decline towards $ 3.60–$ 3.40 in the coming sessions.

GMT 10:00 IST 15:30 EU Biz Climate
…Previous 97.0

DATA LAST FRIDAY
================
GMT 23:30 IST 05:00 JP Unemp
…Expectations 2.6 …Previous 2.6 …Actual 2.6