The Dollar Index will either have to rise past 98.25 or fall below 97.75 to get further directional clarity. EURUSD is stuck between 1.1750-1.1800 region. EURINR can rise towards 106.50-107.00. EURJPY & USDJPY can remain range bound between 182-186 & 154-158 region for some time. USDCNY is near 7.00 region. It remains to be seen as to wether the pair rebounds from current level or extends the fall further. Aussie & Pound can attempt to rise towards 0.68 & 1.36, while both the pairs trade above 0.665 & 1.345 respectively. USDINR can trade within 89.50-90.25 region before a breakout occurs.

Dollar Index (98.016) will have to rise past 98.25 to bring 99 and higher levels into picture. Else, there is room for a further decline towards 97-96 before a rebound is seen in the medium term.

EURUSD (1.1772) is consolidating in the 1.1750-1.1800 region, and a breakout on either side will be needed for further clarity. A sustained move above 1.18 could push the pair towards 1.19–1.20. Conversely, a break below 1.175 would shift the focus to the 1.17–1.16 zone. We will have to wait and watch.

EURINR (105.8414) has immediate support near 105.50, above which there is enough room for a rise towards 106.50-107.00 in the medium term.

EURJPY (184.05) can move towards the upper end of its 182-186 range while it trades above 183.

Dollar-Yen (156.47) can test 158 while it trades above 156. Overall, a broad 154-158 range can hold for sometime.

USDCNY (7.00036) is trading near the the support at 7.00 region. It would be crucial to see if the pair holds above the current support at 7.00 and rise further or whether it extends the fall towards 6.95 or lower.

Aussie (0.6697) had initially risen to the level of 0.6727 but could not sustain and started coming off. Still the target of 0.68 is kept open while the pair trades above 0.6650.

Pound (1.3501) can attempt to rise towards 1.36 in the coming sessions while it trades above immediate support coming at 1.345.

USDINR (89.8990) is rising within the 89.50-90.25 range which can hold for some time. A decisive break on either side will be needed for further clarity.

The US Treasury yields look bearish with the 10Yr and 30yr yields likely to dip towards 4.05% and 4.75% on sustained trade below 4.10% and 4.80% respectively. The German yields have dipped as well but if they do not rebound immediately, there can be an initial test of 2.80% (10yr) and 3.40% (30yr). The Indian 10Yr GOI has risen well but might face resistance near 6.60/65% from where a rejection is possible towards 6.50% soon.

The US 10Yr (4.108%) has dipped to test the lower end of the 4.1%-4.2% range. Failure to hold above 4.10% within the current fall could open room on the downside towards 4.05%. Watch price action carefully near 4.10%. The 30Yr (4.797%) Treasury yield has indeed broken below 7.80% as expected and could now be headed towards support at 4.75% in the next few sessions before pausing for a rebound.

The German 10Yr (2.8291%) and 30Yr (3.4738%) yields have dipped. If the yields do not rebound immediately, our mentioned targets of 2.95/3% and 3.55-3.6% respectively might not get tested. Instead, the yields may dip towards 2.80% and 3.40% again from here.

The 10Yr GoI (6.5912%) is moving up towards our mentioned resistance near 6.60/65%. While this level holds, a decline to 6.50% could be on the cards for the near term

The Dow is expected to trade within 48000-49000 for now while Dax has resistance near 24400 and 25000 which can be tested before facing rejection. Nifty has closed below support at 26000 and can test 25800 before rebounding towards 26300-26600 in the next few weeks. Nikkei could be ranged for now with scope for further bullishness in the medium term while Shanghai looks bullish and could have room for a rise towards 4100-4200 in Jan-26.

The Dow (48461.93, -0.51%) has dipped within the 48000-49000 region mentioned yesterday. A test of 48000 looks likely to be followed by a rise within the mentioned range. Thereafter, a decisive break above 49000 is needed for the index to rise further towards 50000. Failure to hold above 48000 will open chances of a decline to 47500-47000. Watch price action near 48000.

DAX (24351.12, +0.045%) has risen slightly, indicating lower volumes in a festive season. The rest of the week and next week could see thinner trade volumes. Resistances are seen at 24400 and higher at 25000 from where a rejection looks possible towards 24000-23500 in the medium term. A sustained and decisive break above 25000 is needed in the longer run for Dax to turn bullish for an upside rally.

Nifty (25942.10, -0.38%) has closed below the mentioned support at 26000. The index may now test 25900/800 while below 26000. Thereafter, a rise to 26300/26600 would come into the picture. For this week and the next, Nifty could be ranged to mildly bearish.

Nikkei (50434.96, -0.18%) has dipped slightly. Unless a sustained rise above 50530-50600 is seen, Nikkei may remain stable within the 50600-49500 region. But in the medium-term charts, there is room for a slow rise towards 52000-54000 in the next 1-2 months.

Shanghai (3965.28, +0.040%) is headed towards 4000 and a break above this would lead to the upper targets of 4100-4200 in the coming weeks.

Crude prices have bounced back, but while Brent remains below $ 62 and WTI below $ 60, the near-term bias stays bearish towards $ 60–$ 59 and $ 56–$ 55. Gold has slipped to $ 4316, but support near $ 4300 keeps a recovery towards $ 4500–$ 4600 possible. Silver has fallen sharply to $ 70.22, and as long as this holds, a bounce towards $ 74–$ 76 is expected. Copper has dropped to $ 5.5575, with support near $ 5.50 pointing to a possible rebound towards $ 5.75–$ 5.85. Natural Gas below $ 4.00 remains weak towards $ 3.60–$ 3.40.

Brent ($ 61.32) has bounced back, but while it remains below $ 62, the view stays intact for a decline towards $ 60–$ 59 in the near term.

WTI ($ 57.91) has also bounced back, but as long as it sustains below $ 60, the view remains intact for a fall towards $ 56–$ 55 in the near term.

Gold ($ 4371.50) has plunged to a low of $ 4316, contrary to our expectation. Immediate support is seen near $ 4300, and while this holds, a bounce back towards $ 4500–$ 4600 remains possible for now.

Silver ($ 73.06) has plunged by about $ 8 and tested a low of $ 70.22 yesterday. While the immediate support near $ 70 holds, we expect a bounce back towards $ 74–$ 76 in the coming sessions.

Copper ($ 5.6815) has reversed sharply to a low of $ 5.5575 yesterday. Immediate support is coming near $ 5.50, and while this holds, a bounce back towards $ 5.75–$ 5.85 remains possible in the near term.

Natural Gas ($ 3.9520) is trading below $ 4.00, and while it remains below this level, the view stays intact for a decline towards $ 3.60–$ 3.40 in the coming sessions.

GMT 1:45 IST 07:15 CN PMI
…Expectations 49.7 …Previous 49.9

GMT 14:00 IST 19:30 US Case Schiller
…Expectations 1.1 …Previous 1.4

DATA YESTERDAY
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GMT 12:00 IST 17:30 IN IIP
3.5 …Expectations 2.5 …Previous 0.5 …Actual 6.7