The Dollar Index need to see a confirmed break past the resistance coming near current levels to head towards 99 and higher levels. EURUSD & EURINR can trade within 1.18-1.17 & 106.25-105.00 region. EURJPY & USDJPY can remain range bound between 182-186 & 154-158 region for some time. USDCNY has slipped below 7.00 and can fall towards 6.95 or even further in the near term. Aussie & Pound can attempt to rise towards 0.68 & 1.36, while both the pairs trade above 0.665 & 1.345 respectively. USDINR is stuck within 89.75-90.00 region. While the resistance at 90 holds, a fall towards 89 region is expected in the near term.
Dollar Index (98.27) is hovering near the resistance coming around current levels. A sustained move above 98.30 can bring 99 and higher levels into picture. Failing to do so can shift the focus to 97-96 initially, before a rebound is seen in the medium term.
EURUSD (1.1740) & EURINR (105.4083) are coming off from the high of 1.1779 & 105.9727, thereby keeping the 1.18-1.17 & 106.25-105.00 range intact for now respectively.
EURJPY (183.69) is stuck between 183-185 region since the last few sessions, still the target of 186 is kept open while the pair trades above 183.
Dollar-Yen (156.45) can test 158 while it trades above 156. Overall, a broad 154-158 range can hold for sometime.
USDCNY (6.9880) has slipped below 7.00 and if the fall continues a test to 6.95 or even lower can be seen in the coming sessions.
Aussie (0.6694) has declined a bit but immediate support is coming around 0.6680-0.6650 region which can get test before attempting to rise towards 0.68 thereafter.
Pound (1.3461) tested the support at 1.345 as anticipated and while it holds, a bounce back towards 1.355-1.360 is expected in the coming sessions.
USDINR (89.7290) is consolidating between 89.75-90.00 region. While below 90, the pair could break below 89.75-89.50 and decline towards 89.25-89.00 in the coming weeks. Only if a sustained break above 90.00-90.25 is seen, can shift the focus towards 90.50-91.00. Watch price action near 90.00-90.25.
The US Treasury and the German yields have risen back after a brief dip seen in the previous session. If the rebound holds, we may expect a rise in the yields for the rest of the week. The Indian 10Yr GOI seems to be holding below 6.60% and could have scope for a dip towards 6.55/50% in the next few sessions.
The US 10Yr (4.126%) has managed to hold above the support at 4.10%. If the rise sustains, we may expect a rise back towards 4.20%. The 30Yr (4.809%) Treasury yield has also risen back to trade above 4.80% and while that holds, a slow rise to 4.85/90% can be seen soon.
The German 10Yr (2.8474%) and 30Yr (3.4854%) yields have risen back after a brief dip seen in the previous session. If the rise sustains, we might look for a rise to 2.90% and 3.50% respectively in the next few sessions.
The 10Yr GoI (6.5786%) dipped slightly yesterday. If the immediate resistance at 6.60% holds, the yield can dip towards 6.55/50% in the next few sessions. A break above 6.60% is needed for a rise to 6.65%.
The Dow is expected to trade within 48000-49000 for now while Dax has resistance near 25000 which if holds can lead to a fall towards 24000. Nifty can test 25800 before rebounding towards 26300-26600 in the next few weeks. Nikkei could test 50000-49500 before rebounding from there while Shanghai looks ranged within 3950-4000 for now.
The Dow (48367.06, -0.20%) is headed towards the lower end of 48000-49000 region mentioned yesterday. A test of 48000 looks likely to be followed by a rise within the mentioned range. Thereafter, a decisive break above 49000 is needed for the index to rise further towards 50000. Failure to hold above 48000 will open chances of a decline to 47500-47000. Watch price action near 48000.
DAX (24490.41, +0.57%) has risen well. If the index faces rejection near 25000, it can decline towards 24000-23500 in the medium term. Else a sustained and decisive break above 25000 is needed for Dax to turn bullish for an upside rally.
Nifty (25938.85, -0.013%) dipped further yesterday and could now test 25900/800 while below 26000. Thereafter, a rise to 26300/26600 would come into the picture. For this week and the next, Nifty could be ranged to mildly bearish.
Nikkei (50339.48, -0.37%) has dipped contrary to our expectations and could now be headed towards 50000-49500. The immediate view is likely to be bearish while below 50500.
Shanghai (3965.12, +0.0041%) is stuck in the 3950-4000 region with thin trade volumes. The index could remain muted for the rest of the week before trade momentum picks up next week. Near term trade within 3950-4000 is possible with eventual rise towards 4000-4100 in Jan-26.
Brent and WTI are trading below resistance and can stay range-bound between $ 62–$ 58 and $ 59–$ 55. Gold is holding support and may bounce towards $ 4500–$ 4600. Silver has rebounded sharply and can move towards $ 80 if support holds, though a break lower can drag it to $ 70–$ 68. Copper remains firm with scope to rise towards $ 5.80–$ 6.00. Natural Gas stays weak below $ 4.00–$ 4.20 with downside towards $ 3.60–$ 3.40.
Brent ($ 61.22) and WTI ($ 57.85) , while they hold below their respective resistance levels, can remain in ranges of $ 62–$ 58 and $ 59–$ 55 respectively.
Gold ($ 4378.50) is holding above its immediate support. While this support holds, a bounce back towards $ 4500–$ 4600 remains possible for now.
Silver ($ 75.02) , as expected, has bounced back sharply to a high of $ 78.07 yesterday. A further move up towards $ 80 remains possible while the support holds. Alternatively, a break below this support can drag prices down towards $ 70–$ 68 or even lower.
Copper ($ 5.7280) , as mentioned, has bounced back sharply to a high of $ 5.79. While the support holds, a rally towards $ 5.80–$ 6.00 remains possible in the near term.
Natural Gas ($ 3.9590) , while below $ 4.00–$ 4.20, the view stays intact for a decline towards $ 3.60–$ 3.40 in the coming sessions.
NO MAJOR DATA IS RELEASING TODAY.
DATA YESTERDAY
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GMT 14:00 IST 19:30 US Case Schiller
…Expectations 1.1 …Previous 1.4 …Actual 1.3