The Dollar Index can consolidate between 98.75-97.75 region for some time before a breakout occurs. EURUSD & EURINR can trade within 1.17-1.18 & 105.00-106.25 region. EURJPY & USDJPY can remain range bound between 182-186 & 154-158 region for some time. USDCNY can fall towards 6.95 or even further in the near term. Aussie & Pound can attempt to rise towards 0.68 & 1.355-1.360, while both the pairs trade above 0.665 & 1.344 respectively. USDINR is stuck within 89.75-90.00 region. While the resistance at 90 holds, a fall towards 89 region is expected in the near term.
Dollar Index (98.146) had initially risen to the high of 98.50 but could not sustain and stared coming off. Immediate view appears uncertain at the moment. For now, a range of 98.75-97.75 can hold in the near term before a breakout occurs on either side.
EURUSD (1.1761) & EURINR (105.7818) continues to trade within the 1.17-1.18 & 105.00-106.25 range respectively for now.
EURJPY (184.208) is stuck between 183-185 region since the last few sessions, still the target of 186 is kept open while the pair trades above 183.
Dollar-Yen (156.62) tested 157 before declining a bit. The target of 158 is kept open while the pair trades above 156. Overall, a broad 154-158 range can hold for sometime.
USDCNY (6.9880) has immediate resistance coming near 7.00-7.01 and while it holds, the fall can get extended towards 6.95 or even lower. A break below 6.98 will confirm the anticipated fall.
Aussie (0.6694) has bounced well from the support near 0.6650 and if sustained, can head towards 0.68 in the near term.
Pound (1.3455) had slipped sharply to the low of 1.34 but soon it recovered from there. While above 1.3440, a bounce back towards 1.355-1.360 is expected in the coming sessions.
USDINR (89.9250) is consolidating between 89.75-90.00 region. While below 90, the pair could break below 89.75-89.50 and decline towards 89.25-89.00 in the coming weeks. Only if a sustained break above 90.00-90.25 is seen, can shift the focus towards 90.50-91.00. Watch price action near 90.00-90.25.
The US Treasury and the German yields have risen and could continue to rise in the next few sessions. The Indian 10Yr GOI seems to be holding below 6.60% and could trade within 6.55/50-6.60% region for sometime before eventually breaking higher.
The US 10Yr (4.163%) and the 30Yr (4.841%) Treasury yields have risen well. The 10yr is headed towards 4.20% while the 30yr yield is headed towards 4.85/90%.
The German 10Yr (2.8557%) and 30Yr (3.4801%) yields have risen and could head towards 2.90% and 3.50% respectively in the next few sessions.
The 10Yr GoI (6.5818%) rise slightly yesterday. While below immediate resistance at 6.60%, the yield can trade within a broad range of 6.55/50% to 6.69% region before eventually breaking in the upside.
The Dow is expected to bounce from 48000 and head towards 49000 while Dax has resistance near 25000 which if holds can lead to a fall towards 24000. Nifty has risen well and can head towards 26300-26600 while above 26100. Nikkei and Shanghai are closed today.
The Dow (48063.29, -0.63%) closed on a negative note on 31st Dec. If the index can bounce from 48000, it can head back to 49000 again in the coming days. Else failure to hold above 48000 can drag the index down to 47500-47000.
DAX (24490.41, +0.57%) can face rejection near 25000, and decline towards 24000-23500 in the medium term. Else a sustained and decisive break above 25000 is needed for Dax to turn bullish for an upside rally.
Nifty (26146.55, +0.065%) moved up well on the first day of the new year, closing above 26100. While the upward momentum remains intact, a rise towards 26300/26600 looks possible in the medium term.
Nikkei (50339.48, -0.37%) and Shanghai (3968.84, +0.094%) are closed today.
Crude prices remains range-bound below resistances, with Brent between $ 62–$ 58 and WTI between $ 59–$ 55. Gold is holding above the $ 4300 support and can bounce towards $ 4500–$ 4600. Silver has tested $ 70 and may recover to $ 74–$ 76 if this support holds. Copper remains supported near $ 5.6 and can rise towards $ 5.80–$ 6.00. Natural gas may dip further to $ 3.4 before a bounce is seen.
Brent ($ 61.03) and WTI ($ 57.58) , while they hold below their respective resistance levels, can remain in ranges of $ 62–$ 58 and $ 59–$ 55 respectively.
Gold ($ 4364.50) tested a low of $ 4284 yesterday. While the support near $ 4300 holds, we retain our view of a bounce back towards $ 4500–$ 4600 in the near term.
Silver ($ 71.95) , contrary to our expectations, has fallen sharply to test the support near $ 70. While this support holds, a bounce back towards $ 74–$ 76 remains likely. Alternatively, a break below this support can drag prices down to $ 68–$ 66.
Copper ($ 5.7415) has immediate support near $ 5.6. While this holds, our view remains intact for a rise towards $ 5.80–$ 6.00 in the near term.
Natural Gas ($ 3.6110) plunged to a low of $ 3.56 yesterday, in line with our expectation. A further decline to test the support near $ 3.4 remains likely in the near term before a bounce back is seen.
NO MAJOR DATA IS RELEASING TODAY.
DATA YESTERDAY
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GMT 14:00 IST 19:30 US Case Schiller
…Expectations 1.1 …Previous 1.4 …Actual 1.3