Weaker-than-expected US ISM at 47.90 (48.30) and comments from a Fed official indicating that unemployment could rise further led to a decline in the Dollar Index. The Dollar Index can trade within 98.85-97.75 region for a while. EURUSD has risen above 1.17 again but faces immediate resistance between 1.1750-1.1800. EURINR is trading within 105-106.25 region. EURJPY & USDJPY continues to hold the 183-185 & 158-154 range respectively for now. USDCNY can fall towards 6.95 or even further in the near term. Aussie & Pound have bounced well and if sustained, can test 0.68 & 1.36/365 respectively in the near term. USDINR has risen well so far and has a scope to move towards 90.50 or slightly higher while it trades above 90.00. IN Services PMI is scheduled for release today.

Dollar Index (98.302) initially rose to 98.86 but failed to sustain and has started declining. For now, a range of 98.85–97.75 is likely to hold. A sustained move above 99 is needed to open up higher levels.

EURUSD (1.1723) fell sharply to 1.1658 but recovered quickly. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.1750, with stronger resistance near 1.18, which can cap the upside for now.

EURINR (105.7221) is holding the 105.00-106.25 range for now.

EURJPY (183.40) fell to a low of 182.81 but has rebounded into its 183-185 range. A decisive break on either side will be needed for further directional clarity.

Dollar-Yen (156.44) started coming off from 157.30 itself. Overall, a narrow range of 158-156 & broad range of 158-154 can hold for a while.

USDCNY (6.9827) can target of 6.95 or even 6.90 in the coming weeks while it trades below 7.00. A break below 6.98 will confirm the anticipated fall.

Aussie (0.6717) has bounced well as anticipated and while above 0.67, the target of 0.68 can get tested in the near term before getting peaked out.

Pound (1.3545) surged well above 1.35 yesterday. While the rise sustains, a test to 1.360-1.365 can be seen in the coming sessions before halting.

USDINR (90.15) observed the high of 90.29 yesterday before declining a bit. While above 90, a further rise towards 90.50 or higher looks likely in the near term.

The US Treasury yields remain higher and stable. The bias on the 30Yr is bullish. That can aid the 10Yr also to breach its resistance and go higher in the coming days. The Germany Yields have come down. The resistance has held very well. Failure to bounce back can drag the yields down in the coming days. The 10Yr GoI has risen well. The outlook is bullish. The GoI can rise more going forward.

The US 10Yr (4.17%) and 30Yr (4.86%) Treasury yields remain higher but stable. 4.2% (10Yr) and 4.9% (30Yr) can be tested. As mentioned yesterday, 30Yr has potential to see 5% and even 5.15%-5.2%. That can aid the 10Yr to breach 4.2% and rise to 4.3%-4.35%.

The German 10Yr (2.87%) and 30Yr (3.51%) yields have come down failing to break their resistance. Failure to bounce back can drag the yields down to 2.8% (10Yr) and 3.45% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.6331%) has risen well. That keeps intact our bullish view of seeing 6.7% on the upside. Support is at 6.55%.

Most indices look bullish and are nearing our earlier mentioned targets. The Dow is headed towards 49000-49500 while the Dax is moving towards resistance near 25000.  Nifty could rise to 26500 while above 26100-26000. Nikkei and Shanghai have surged well and could test 54000 and 4100 sooner than expected.

The Dow (48977.18, +1.23%) rallied yesterday in line with our expectations of a rise, boosted by the energy prices and energy stocks on capture of Venezuela. Our upside targets of 49000-49500 remains intact for now and seems to be achieved sooner.

DAX (24868.69, +1.34%) also rallied yesterday, and is headed towards resistance near 25000, from where a decline towards 24000-23500 looks possible in the medium term. Only a sustained and decisive break above 25000, if seen, will make Dax further bullish.

Nifty (26250.30, -0.30%) dipped slightly yesterday but while it holds above 26100-26000, a rise to 26500 looks possible.

Nikkei (52158.71, +0.63%) continues to rally today after breaking past 52000. A rise towards 54000 is on the cards and can be tested soon if the current upward momentum continues.

Shanghai (4026.11, +0.067%) has broken above 4000 and could now be headed towards 4100 soon.

Crude prices have risen on geopolitical tensions but can remain range-bound between $ 62–$ 58 (Brent) and $ 59–$ 55 (WTI). Gold is inching higher and can move towards $ 4500–$ 4600. Silver has surged and may rise further to $ 79–$ 80. Copper jumped on US stockpiling concerns and a break above $ 6 can take it to $ 6.10–$ 6.20. Natural gas is testing support near $ 3.40, with scope to rebound towards $ 3.60–$ 3.80.

Brent ($ 61.54) and WTI ($ 58.07) have risen amid increasing global geopolitical risks in Russia, the Middle East, Nigeria, and Venezuela. They can remain in ranges of $ 62–$ 58 and $ 59–$ 55 respectively for some time.

Gold ($ 4464.50) is inching up in line with our expectations and can rise towards $ 4500–$ 4600 in the near term.

Silver ($ 77.67) has surged to a high of $ 77.84 in line with our expectation. A further rise towards $ 79–$ 80 can be seen in the near term.

Copper ($ 6.03) surged by nearly 5% and tested a high of $ 6.01, driven by a rush to stockpile copper in the United States ahead of possible import tariff changes. A sustained break above $ 6 can take the price further up towards $ 6.10–$ 6.20 in the coming sessions.

Natural Gas ($ 3.4690) dipped to test a low of $ 3.3550 yesterday. While the support near $ 3.40 holds, a bounce back towards $ 3.60–$ 3.80 can be seen. A break below this level can turn bearish and drag prices towards $ 3.20–$ 3.00.

GMT 5:00 IST10:30 IN Services PMI
…Expectations 58.9 …Previous 59.8

DATA YESTERDAY
===============
GMT 0:30 IST 06:00 JP PMI
…Expectations 49.8 …Previous 48.7 …Actual 50.0

GMT 7:30 IST 13:00 CH PMI
…Expectations 49.7 …Previous 49.7 …Actual 45.8

GMT 14:00 IST 19:30 US Manufacturing ISM
… 49.3 …Expectations 48.3 …Previous 48.2 …Actual 47.9