The Dollar Index can trade within 97.75-98.85 region for a while. EURUSD is trading below 1.1750 but a confirmed break below 1.170-1.165 will be needed to make the outlook further bearish. EURINR is trading within 105-106.25 region. EURJPY & USDJPY continues to hold the 182-185 & 154-158 range respectively for now. USDCNY is stuck between 7.00-6.9780 region. Aussie & Pound can target 0.68 & 1.36 respectively in the near term. USDINR has a scope to move towards 90.50 or slightly higher while it trades above 90.00. US ADP Employment is scheduled for release today.

Dollar Index (98.523) had declined to the low of 98.16 but it has currently recovered from there. For now, a range of 97.75-98.85 is likely to hold before a breakout occurs.

EURUSD (1.1723) seems to be holding well below the interim resistance of 1.1750 as it tested 1.1742 before coming down. Overall, the outlook appears bearish below 1.18 but a confirmed break below 1.17-1.165 will be needed to open the doors for lower levels. Immediate upside looks capped at 1.1750-1.1800.

EURINR (105.4978) is holding the 105.00-106.25 range for now.

EURJPY (183.34) has immediate support coming around 182, above which the range of 182-185 is likely to hold in the near term.

Dollar-Yen (156.68) can continue to trade within a narrow range of 156-158 & broad range of 154-158 for a while.

USDCNY (6.9827) appears to be stuck between 7.000-6.9780 region. Still the target of 6.95 or even 6.90 can get achieved in the coming weeks while it trades below 7.00. A break below 6.98 will confirm the anticipated fall.

Aussie (0.6749) is rising in line with our view and while above 0.67, the target of 0.68 can get tested before getting peaked out.

Pound (1.3545) has declined from the high of 1.3567 itself. Still, while the pair trades above 1.345, the target of 1.36 is kept open for now.

USDINR (90.1090) tested 90.2475 before closing lower. We retain our view of seeing a rise towards 90.50 or higher while the USDINR trades above 90.

The US Treasury yields are stuck inside a narrow range over the last few days. We have to wait for the range breakout. Broadly, the 30Yr is looking relatively stronger and can rise. We will have to wait and watch. The Germany Yields have come down further. Crucial supports are coming up which if broken can drag then lower in the coming days. The 10Yr GoI has dipped. But supports are there to limit the downside. The broader bias is positive and the yield has room to rise more.

The US 10Yr (4.16%) and 30Yr (4.85%) Treasury yields are stuck between 4.15%-4.2% and 4.83%-4.89% respectively. We will have to wait for a breakout of this range. The 30Yr is relatively looking strong to see 5% and higher which can aid the 10Yr also to rise towards 4.3%-4.35%

The German 10Yr (2.84%) and 30Yr (3.48%) yields have come down further. 2.8% (10Yr) and 3.45% (30Yr) are crucial levels to watch. If they are broken then, 2.75%-2.7% (10Yr) and 3.4%-3.35% (30Yr) can be seen on the downside.

The 10Yr GoI (6.6179%) has dipped but may get immediate support at 6.6%. Bias is positive while above 6.55% to see 6.7% on the upside.

The Dow and DAX are rising as expected but could face rejection from resistance near 49500 or 50000 and 25000 respectively. Nifty could test 26100-26000 before a possible bounce to 26500 later. Nikkei and Shanghai have dipped slightly and could face rejection from 4100 and 54000 respectively in the near term.

The Dow (49462.08, +0.99%) continued to rise, breaking above 49000. The index could pause near 49500 or higher near 50000 for a short corrective dip.

DAX (24892.20, +0.095%) traded in the positive yesterday. The index could face resistance near 25000, from where a decline towards 24000-23500 looks likely. Only a sustained and decisive break above 25000, if seen, will make Dax further bullish.

Nifty (26175.60, -0.28%) could dip to 26100-26000 but while above these levels, a rise to 26500 remains intact.

Nikkei (52343.09, -0.33%) tested 52396 before coming off slightly from there. A rise to 54000 remains intact while the current upward momentum continues.

Shanghai (4079.24, -0.11%) has dipped slightly. While below 4100, a correction is possible towards 4000-3900 again in the coming days.

Brent and WTI have dipped and are likely to trade within $ 62–$ 58 and $ 59–$ 55 for now. Gold continues to inch up and can move towards $ 4,500–$ 4,600 in the near term. Silver needs a sustained break above $ 82 to extend gains towards $ 84–$ 86, else it can slip back to $ 78–$ 76. Copper must hold above $ 6 to rise towards $ 6.20–$ 6.30. Natural gas is supported near $ 3.40 and can bounce towards $ 3.60–$ 3.80 as long as this support holds.

Brent ($ 60.12) and WTI ($ 56.38) have dipped and can remain range-bound between $ 62–$ 58 and $ 59–$ 55 respectively for some time.

Gold ($ 4,487.50) is inching up in line with our expectations and can rise towards $ 4,500–$ 4,600 in the near term.

Silver ($ 80.87) surged to a high of $ 81.49 yesterday. Today it has tested a high of $ 82.59 and has come off from there to current levels. A sustained break above $ 82 is needed for the price to move higher towards $ 84–$ 86. Else, it can dip back towards $ 78–$ 76.

Copper ($ 6.03) tested a high of $ 6.11 yesterday. A sustained break above $ 6 is needed for the price to move higher towards $ 6.20–$ 6.30 in the coming sessions.

Natural Gas ($ 3.4620) is holding above the support near $ 3.40 for now. While this holds, a bounce back towards $ 3.60–$ 3.80 can be seen in the near term. A break below this level can turn bearish and drag prices towards $ 3.20–$ 3.00.

22:30 04:00 AU PMI
…Previous -18.0

13:15 18:45 US ADP Emp
…Expectations 47.0 …Previous -31.0

DATA YESTERDAY
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GMT 5:00 IST10:30 IN Services PMI
…Expectations 58.9 …Previous 59.8 …Actual 58