The Dollar Index is rising within the 97.75-98.85 region. A break past 99 will be required to make the outlook further bullish. EURUSD is declining and a break below 1.165 if seen can make it vulnerable to fall towards 1.160-1.155. EURINR is also coming off and a break below 105 if seen, can take it towards 104.50-104.00 initially. EURJPY & USDJPY continues to hold the 182-185 & 154-158 range respectively for now. USDCNY is stuck between 7.01-6.98 region. Aussie has immediate support around 0.67, above which the target of 0.68 is kept open. Pound is moving within 1.355-1.340 region for now. USDINR had declined below 90 but while above 89.80/75 we retain our view of seeing a rise towards 90.30-90.50 levels. or slightly higher while it trades above 90.00. US Trade Balance is scheduled for release today.

Dollar Index (98.523) is slowly inching higher within its 97.75-98.85 range. A decisive break past 99 will be needed to bring 100-101 levels into picture, else the range can continue to hold.

EURUSD (1.1675) has slipped below 1.17 and a confirmed break below 1.165 can open the doors for 1.160-1.155 levels in the near term. Immediate upside can be capped at 1.1750-1.1800.

EURINR (105.0114) is trading near the lower end of its 106.25-105.00 range. A break below 105 if seen can take it towards the lower support coming between 104.50-104.00 region initially before rebounding later on.

EURJPY (183.22) has immediate support coming around 182, above which the range of 182-185 is likely to hold in the near term.

Dollar-Yen (156.94) is rising gradually but while the resistance at 158 holds, a narrow range of 156-158 & broad range of 154-158 can hold for a while.

USDCNY (6.9827) continues to range between 7.01-6.98 region. The targets of 6.95 or even 6.90 are kept open for now until further clarity.

Aussie (0.6749) has started coming off from 0.6766 itself, contrary to our expectation of a rise towards 0.68. Immediate support is seen near 0.67, and if this level holds, a rebound towards 0.68 remains possible. However, a decisive break below 0.67 would negate the bullish bias and turn the outlook bearish in the near term.

Pound (1.3454) has remained volatile between 1.3550-1.3400 region since the last few sessions and a break on either side will be needed for further clarity.

USDINR (89.9150) had slipped below 90, tested the low of 89.80 before closing higher. While the support between 89.80/75 region holds, the view remains intact for a rise towards 90.35–90.50 in the coming sessions. Only a decisive break below this support is seen, could drag the pair down to 89.50-89.25.

The US Treasury yields remain lower. The sideways range remains intact, and the yields are coming down within the range. The range breakout is needed to get clarity on the next move. Will the jobs data release tomorrow provide a trigger for the breakout? We will have to wait and watch. The German yields have come down further. Near-term outlook is negative. The yields can fall more from here. The 10Yr GoI has dipped further. Looks like the yield can see some more dip from here before moving higher.

The US 10Yr (4.15%) and 30Yr (4.83%) Treasury yields remain lower. Broadly, the 4.1%-4.2% (10Yr) and 4.78%-4.9% (30Yr) range remains intact for now. The yields are falling within this range now.

The German 10Yr (2.81%) and 30Yr (3.44%) yields have come down further as expected. The view remains bearish to see 2.75%-2.7% (10Yr) and 2.35% (30Yr) on the downside.

The 10Yr GoI (6.6105%) remains lower. A near-term dip to 6.6% or even 6.55% looks likely. But while above 6.55%, the broader bias is positive to see 6.7% on the upside.

While the indices started the year with gains, they now seem to be losing steam after mixed economic comments from Trump. The Dow has fallen after a decline in financial and energy prices on comments from Trump and the index can now head towards 48000. But whether the DAX would follow the decline in the Dow and fall towards 24000 is to be seen. Nifty could test the support region of 26100-26000 before a possible bounce to 26500 later. Nikkei and Shanghai have dipped and could trade below 53000 and 4100 for the near term.

The Dow (48996.08, -0.94%) has dipped after testing 49621, slightly above the mentioned resistance near 49500. The decline came in along with a decline in financial and energy prices after Trump said that the US would ban the large institutional investors from buying more single-family homes and said that Venezuela will provide the US with upto 50mln barrels of crude. A dip to 48000 or lower looks likely for the Dow within the current downward correction.

DAX (25122.26, +0.92%) has broken above our mentioned resistance near 25000. But it has to be seen if the index would continue to rise today or decline in line with the fall in the Dow. A sharp decline from here, if seen, can take it down to 24000 again. Else, sustained trade above 25000, can turn gradually bullish for the DAX towards 26000-27000.

Nifty (26140.75, -0.14%) has been closing in the red over the last few sessions but is holding above 26000-26100. While above these levels, the index could again find some strength to pull up towards 26500. We are currently looking at crucial support at 26000 to hold.

Nikkei (51567.30, -0.76%) has dipped. But while above 50000, there is scope for a slow rise towards 54000 in the medium term. For now, we may expect some consolidation below 53000.

Shanghai (4082.01, -0.092%) has dipped slightly. While below 4100, a correction is possible towards 4000-3900 again in the coming days.

Brent and WTI remain under pressure and can stay range-bound between $ 62–$ 58 and $ 59–$ 55. Gold has dipped but holding above $ 4,400 keeps the upside open towards $ 4,550–$ 4,600. Silver is testing support near $ 76, which if it holds can push prices back to $ 80–$ 81, else can dip to $ 74–$ 70. Copper remains weak below $ 6 with downside towards $ 5.70–$ 5.60. Natural Gas has rebounded from support and can rise towards $ 3.60–$ 3.80.

Brent ($ 60.18) and WTI ($ 56.21) have dipped further and are likely to remain range-bound between $ 62–$ 58 and $ 59–$ 55 respectively for some time.

Gold ($ 4,447.50) has dipped contrary to our expectation. As long as it holds above $ 4,400, our view remains intact for a rise towards $ 4,550–$ 4,600 in the near term.

Silver ($ 77.42) failed to sustain above 80 and fell sharply to a low of $ 76.08 yesterday. Immediate support is seen near $ 76, which if it holds, can push prices back towards $ 80–$ 81. Otherwise, a sustained break below this level can drag it down to $ 74–$ 70.

Copper ($ 5.8910) failed to sustain above $ 6 and reverted back to $ 5.84 yesterday. While it remains below $ 6, a further decline towards $ 5.70–$ 5.60 is possible.

Natural Gas ($ 3.5840) has bounced back from support in line with our expectation. A further rise towards $ 3.60–$ 3.80 can be seen in the near term.

GMT 0:30 IST 06:00 Australia Trade Balance
…Expectations 5.6 …Previous 4.4

GMT 7:30 IST 13:00 CH CPI
…Expectations 0.0 …Previous 0.1

GMT 10:00 IST 15:30 EU Unemp
…Expectations 6.4 …Previous 6.4

GMT 10:00 IST 15:30 EU Biz Climate
…Previous 97.0

GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 US Trade Balance
…Expectations -58.5 …Previous -52.8

DATA YESTERDAY
===============
GMT 13:15 18:45 US ADP Emp
…Expectations 47.0 …Previous -31.0 …Actual 41.0