FED chair Jerome Powell has been served grand jury subpoenas from the Justice Department threatening a criminal indictment. The Dollar Index has moved slightly lower but the target of 100-101 levels remains into play while the DXY trades above 98.75. EURUSD has a scope to fall towards 1.160-1.155 while it trades below 1.17. EURINR can trade within 104.50-106.00 region. EURJPY is trading higher within 182-185 range. While USDJPY need to see a confirmed break past 158 to bring 160 into picture. Else, it can trade within 158-154 region. USDCNY has slipped below 6.98 and can now fall towards 6.95-6.90 levels. Aussie is consolidating between 0.6650-0.6750 region. Pound is trading lower within 1.355-1.340 region. A break below 1.34 if seen can make the outlook bearish towards 1.33-1.32 levels. USDINR is trading higher within the 89.75-90.25 range. The targets of 90.35-90.50 are kept open for now. IN CPI is scheduled to release today.

Dollar Index (98.984) has declined a bit from the high of 99.26 as the US administration opened a criminal investigation on FED chair Jerome Powell. Still, the target of 100.50-101.00 is kept open while the immediate support near 98.75 holds.

EURUSD (1.1658) is attempting to rise back but while below 1.17, the target of 1.160-1.155 levels can still get achieved.

EURINR (105.2698) limited the downside to 104.6475 and has currently recovered well. Overall, a range of 104.50-106.00 is likely to hold for some time before a breakout occurs.

EURJPY (184.10) has risen within the 182-185 range but a decisive break on either side will be needed for further clarity.

Dollar-Yen (157.97) initially rose to 158.21 but failed to sustain and turned lower. A sustained break above 158 is needed to open the doors for for 160 and higher. Otherwise, the 158–156/154 range may continue.

USDCNY (6.9748) has slipped below 6.98 and while the fall continues, a test to 6.95 or even 6.90 can happen in the medium term. Overall, view remains bearish below 7.

Aussie (0.6697) is consolidating within the 0.6650–0.6750 range. While the outlook remains bearish below 0.68, a break below 0.66 is needed to confirm further downside. Until then, the 0.6650–0.6570 range may hold.

Pound (1.3423) is trading lower within its 1.3550-1.3400 range. A break below 1.34 will be needed to bring 1.33-1.32 levels in the picture.

USDINR (90.2350) tested a high of 90.25 on Friday before easing. On the NDF, it remains higher within 89.75–90.25 range, break above which can take USDINR towards 90.35–90.50. While only a sustained move below 89.75 would shift focus to 89.50-89.25.

The US Treasury yields sustain well within their range. The jobs data on Friday did not provide any trigger for the breakout. The unemployment rate fell to 4.4% in December from 4.6% in October. The range can continue to remain intact, and we will have to wait for the range breakout. The German Yields remain stable. They have to breach their immediate resistance in order to move higher. Else a fall cannot be ruled out. The 10Yr GoI is moving up and keeps intact our bullish bias. There is room to rise more.

The US 10Yr (4.17%) and 30Yr (4.81%) Treasury yields sustain well within their range. A breakout on either side of the 4.1%-4.2% (10Yr) and 4.78%-4.9% (30Yr) range will give clarity on the next move.

The German 10Yr (2.83%) and 30Yr (3.47%) yields remain stable. As mentioned earlier, a rise above 2.85% (10Yr) and 3.5% (10Yr) is needed to avoid a fall to.75%-2.7% (10Yr) and 2.35% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.6401%) is moving up. It keeps our bullish bias intact to see a rise to 6.7%. A break above 6.65% can trigger this rise. Support is at 6.6% and 6.55%.

The Dow has scope to rise towards the broad resistance region of 50000-52000 from where a rejection back towards 49000 looks possible. The DAX has shown a bullish breakout above 25000 but can test upper resistance near 26000 soon from where a dip looks possible. Nifty needs to rebound from 25600 to rise back towards 26000+ levels else can make itself vulnerable to a deeper fall in the near term. Nikkei has important supports near 51000 and 50000 above which a rise to 53000-54000 is intact. Shanghai is headed towards resistance near 4150-4200.

The Dow (49504.07, +0.48%) is headed towards immediate resistance at 50000 from where a rejection looks possible towards 49000 again. A rise past 50,000 can take it towards upper resistances near 51000 and 52000 respectively.

DAX (25261.64, +0.53%) has broken above near term resistance at 25000 and is now headed towards the upper resistance at 26000 from where a rejection looks possible in the medium term.

Nifty (25683.30, -0.75%) declined last week but needs to bounce back this week while above 25600 to test 26000+ levels again.

Nikkei (51939.89, +1.61%) has important supports near 51000 and 50000 respectively above which the upside targets of 53000-54000 is intact.

Shanghai (4123.88,, +0.084%) has risen today. The index may face immediate resistance near the 4150-4200 region which needs to be broken on the upside for a sharp upmove in the coming days. Else a rejection from 4200 can take it down towards 4100-4000 again in the medium term.

Crude prices are testing key resistance levels. Brent needing a sustained break above $ 64 to move towards $ 66–$ 68, while WTI must break above $ 60 to rise towards $ 62–$ 64. Gold remains strong above $ 4,500 with scope to move towards $ 4,600–$ 4,650. Silver holding above $ 80 keeps the upside open towards $ 84–$ 86. Copper has bounced from support and can rise further towards $ 6.10–$ 6.20. Natural gas stays weak below $ 3.20 and can drift lower towards $ 3.00 in the near term.

Brent ($ 63.41) is testing the immediate resistance near $ 64. A sustained break above this level is needed for a move higher towards $ 66–$ 68. Otherwise, it can fall back towards $ 60–$ 58.

WTI ($ 59.16) has risen to the upper end of the mentioned range. A break above $ 60 can take it higher towards $ 62–$ 64. Otherwise, it can fall back towards $ 58–$ 56.

Gold ($ 4,590.60) has risen above $ 4,500 and can head higher towards $ 4,600–$ 4,650 in the coming sessions.

Silver ($ 83.10) bounced back sharply to a high of $ 80.47 on Friday. Today, it has broken above $ 81 and is moving up sharply. While above $ 80, a rise towards $ 84–$ 86 remains likely.

Copper ($ 5.9660) has bounced back from the support, in line with our expectations. A further rise towards $ 6.10–$ 6.20 can be seen in the coming sessions.

Natural Gas ($ 3.2290) has broken below the support and fell sharply to a low of $ 3.13 on Friday. A further decline towards $ 3.00 can be seen in the near term.

GMT 12:00 IST 17:30 IN CPI
1.74 …Previous 0.71

DATA LAST FRIDAY
================
GMT 10:00 IST 15:30 EU Retail Sales
…Expectations 0.1 …Previous 0.3 …Actual 0.2

GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 US Housing Starts
…Expectations 1330 …Previous 1306 …Actual 1246

GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 US NFP
…Expectations 57 …Previous 56 …Actual 50

GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 US Unemployment Rate
…Expectations 4.5 …Previous 4.6 …Actual 4.4

GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 US Avg Hrly Earnings
0.1 …Expectations 0.3 …Previous 0.1 …Actual 0.3

GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 US Average Hourly Earnings Production & Non Supervisory Employees
…Previous 0.3 …Actual 0.1