The Dollar Index has risen further as the release of US CPI at 0.3% suggested that FED might keep the interest rates steady this month. The target of 100.00-100.50 remains into the play. EURUSD can fall towards 1.160-1.155 while it trades below 1.17. EURINR can trade within 104.50-105.50/106.00 region. EURJPY & USDJPY can head towards 186/187 & 160-162 levels respectively in the near term. USDCNY can fall towards 6.95-6.90 levels. Aussie & Pound are holding the 0.6750-0.6650 & 1.355-1.340 range respectively for now. USDINR is moving within the 89.75-90.25 range. A confirmed break past 90.25 will be needed to head towards 90.50 level. US PPI, US Retail Sales, US Current Account & US Existing Home Sales are scheduled for release today.

Dollar Index (99.228) has inched up after the US CPI MoM matched expectations at 0.3%, supporting the view that the Fed may keep rates steady. We continue to expect a rise toward 100.00-100.50.

EURUSD (1.1636) is coming off in line with our view and while below 1.17, the targets of 1.160-1.155 levels can get tested in the near term.

EURINR (105.0283) can trade within a range of 104.50-105.50/106.00 for some time before a breakout occurs.

EURJPY (185.45) has risen past 185 and if sustained, can test the resistance around 186-187 region.

Dollar-Yen (159.33) is rising as anticipated and while above 158, a further test to 160-162 can happen in the near term.

USDCNY (6.9778) remained muted yesterday. For now, we retain our view of seeing a fall towards 6.95 or even 6.90 in the coming weeks while it trades below 7.

Aussie (0.6686) continues to move within the 0.6650-0.6750 range. Overall, the view remains bearish below 0.68, but a break below 0.66 is needed to confirm further downside. Until then, the 0.6650-0.6570 range may hold.

Pound (1.3428) had risen to 1.3494 yesterday but could not sustain and started to decline. Currently it is trading near the lower end of its 1.3550-1.3400 and a break below it if seen could open the doors for 1.33 and lower levels. .

USDINR (90.2030) rose to 90.30 yesterday but soon it declined thereafter. A sustained move above 90.25 will be needed to head towards 90.50. Until then, the 89.75-90.25 range can continue to hold.

The US Treasury yields remain stable within their range. The yields can continue to oscillate within the range for some more time. We will have to wait for the range breakout. The German Yields remain lower but stable. While they sustain below their resistance, the bias is negative to see a fall in the coming days. The 10Yr GoI is holding well above its support and has risen. While the support holds, the bias is positive to see more rise.

The US 10Yr (4.18%) and 30Yr (4.84%) Treasury yields remain stable within the 4.1%-4.2% (10Yr) and 4.78%-4.9% (30Yr) range. We will have to wait for the range breakout to get clarity on the next direction of move.

The German 10Yr (2.81%) and 30Yr (3.45%) yields remain lower but stable. While below 2.85% (10Yr) and 3.5% (10Yr), the bias is negative to see a fall to 2.75%-2.7% (10Yr) and 2.35% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.6277%) sustains well above 6.55%. That keeps the upside open to see 6.7%. A sustained fall below 6.55% is needed to negate this rise.

The Dow and DAX are headed towards resistances near 50,000 and 26,000 respectively from where rejection looks possible. The immediate view is bullish till the resistance levels are tested. Nifty bounced yesterday, holding above 25600 but has crucial resistance at 26000 below which the index could be vulnerable to decline towards 25500/25000 on a confirmed break below 25600. Till then the range of 25600-26000 could hold. Nikkei has moved up on rising expectations of a snap election by the ruling party. While above 54,000 the higher Targets of 55,000-56,000 is on the cards. Shanghai has resistance near 4150-4200 from where a dip looks possible.

The Dow (49191.99, -0.80%) tested 49616 before coming off to close lower. There is immediate resistance at 50,000 which if holds can lead to a rejection towards 49000 in the near term. A rise past 50,000 is necessary to avoid the expected rejection and see a straight rise towards upper resistances near 51,000 and 52,000 respectively. Watch price action near 50,000.

DAX (25420.66, +0.060%) rose slightly yesterday but could test resistance at 26000 from where a rejection looks possible in the medium term.

Nifty (25732.30, -0.22%) bounced from 25603 to close higher but has crucial resistance at 26000 which needs to be broken on the upside for further bullishness. Else while below 26000, we may expect trade within 26000-25600 with some chances of a break lower to test 25500/25000.

Nikkei (54344.56, +1.49%) continues to rise in expectation that the ruling party would opt for a snap vote. Having broken above 54000, Nikkei looks further bullish towards 55000-56000.

Shanghai (4150.89, +0.29%) looks stable below 4200. There is immediate resistance near the 4150-4200 region which needs to be broken on the upside for a sharp upmove in the coming days. Else a correction from current levels can take it down towards 4100-4000 again in the medium term.

Brent has moved above $ 64 and tested $ 65.92 on Iran-related supply concerns, keeping the near-term outlook positive towards $ 67–$ 68. WTI can also rise towards $ 62–$ 64. Gold and Silver remain firm, with Gold targeting $ 4,650–$ 4,700 and Silver likely to break above $ 90 towards $ 92–$ 94. Copper can inch up towards $ 6.10–$ 6.20. Natural Gas continues to trade below $ 3.50, maintaining a downside bias towards $ 3.00.

Brent ($ 65.26) has broken above $ 64 and tested a high of $ 65.92 yesterday after President Trump stepped up rhetoric over Iran, raising concerns about potential crude supply disruptions from OPEC’s fourth-largest producer. A further rise towards $ 67–$ 68 looks possible in the near term.

WTI ($ 60.92) has broken above $ 60 and can now move higher towards $ 62–$ 64.

Gold ($ 4,629.10) can head higher towards $ 4,650–$ 4,700 in the coming sessions.

Silver ($ 89.48) is moving up in line with our expectations and can break above $ 90 to head towards $ 92–$ 94 over the coming weeks.

Copper ($ 6.13) can rise towards $ 6.10–$ 6.20 in the coming sessions.

Natural Gas ($ 3.3870) while trading below $ 3.50, we retain our view of a decline towards $ 3.00 in the near term.

GMT 6:30 IST 12:00 IN WPI
…Expectations 0.30 …Previous -0.32

GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 US PPI
…Expectations 0.3 …Previous 0.3

GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 US PPI ex Food & Energy
…Expectations 0.2 …Previous 0.1

GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 US Retail Sales
0.3 …Expectations 0.4 …Previous 0.1

GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US Current Account Balance
…Expectations -240.0 …Previous -251.3

GMT 14:00 IST 19:30 US Existing Home Sales
4190 …Expectations 4240 …Previous 4130

DATA YESTERDAY
================
13:30 19:00 US CPI
0.1 …Expectations 0.3 …Previous 0.2 …Actual 0.3

13:30 19:00 US Core CPI
0.1 …Expectations 0.3 …Previous 0.2 …Actual 0.2

15:00 20:30 US New Home Sales
789 …Expectations 715 …Previous 800 …Actual 737