The Dollar Index is rising gradually and view remain intact to see a rise toward 100.00-100.50 levels. EURUSD can fall towards 1.155 in the near term. EURINR can trade within 105.50-104.50 region. EURJPY & USDJPY have scope to rise towards 186/187 & 160-162 levels respectively in the near term. USDCNY can fall towards 6.95-6.90 levels. Aussie is holding the 0.6750-0.6650 range for now. While Pound has slipped below 1.34 and if sustained, can fall towards 1.33 or even lower. USDINR remained closed yesterday. US Industrial production & US Capacity Utilisation are scheduled for release today.

Dollar Index (99.353) has risen to 99.50 so far. While above 98.75, a further test to 100.00-100.50 can happen in the near term.

EURUSD (1.1607) can fall towards 1.1550, while it trades below 1.17.

EURINR (105.0283) can trade within a range of 105.50-104.50 for some time before a breakout occurs.

EURJPY (184.04) tested the high of 185.57 before declining a bit. While above 184, we retain our view of seeing a rise to 186-187 levels before getting peaked out.

Similarly, Dollar-Yen (158.56) turned lower from 159.45 itself. As long as it trades above 158, a rise to 160-162 can be seen in the coming sessions.

USDCNY (6.9663) is slowly inching lower. The targets of view remains intact to see a fall towards 6.95 or even 6.90 in the coming weeks.

Aussie (0.6698) continues to move within the 0.6650-0.6750 range and a break on either side will be needed for further clarity.

Pound (1.3428) has slipped slightly below 1.34. If the move sustains, a test of 1.33 or lower is possible. A rise back above 1.34 is needed to re-enter the 1.34-1.355 range.

USDINR (90.3480) was closed yesterday due to elections in Mumbai. On the NDF, it trades near 90.35. An onshore open above 90.25 could lead to a test to 90.50. Thereafter, whether RBI intervenes to protect Rupee or allows it to further depreciate towards 99.75 will have to be seen.

The US Treasury yields remain volatile within their range. The 30Yr is near the lower end of its range and will need a close watch. Broadly, the yields have to break their range on either side to determine the next direction of move. The German yields are coming down as expected. They can fall more from here. The 10Yr GoI is going up in line with our expectation. The bias remains positive, and there is room to rise more.

The US 10Yr (4.17%) and 30Yr (4.79%) Treasury yields remain volatile within their 4.1%-4.2% (10Yr) and 4.75%-4.9% (30Yr) range. The 30Yr is near the lower end of its range. Need to see if it is retaining the range or not. Broadly, we still have to wait for the range breakout.

The German 10Yr (2.82%) and 30Yr (3.42%) yields are coming down as expected. The bearish view remains intact to see a fall to 2.75%-2.7% (10Yr) and 2.35% (30Yr) while below 2.85% (10Yr) and 3.5% (10Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.6498%) has moved up further. The bullish view of seeing a rise to 6.7% remains intact. Support is at 6.55%.

The Dow and DAX can test resistances near 50,000 and 26,000 respectively while Nifty needs to hold above 25600 to rise back sharply else could be vulnerable to decline towards 25500/25000 on a confirmed break below 25600. Nikkei could see a near term dip but while above 52,000, overall view is bullish towards 54,000. Shanghai has resistance near 4150-4200, below which a dip to 4100-4000 is likely.

The Dow (49442.44, +0.60%) has immediate resistance at 50,000 which if holds can lead to a rejection towards 49000 in the near term.  A rise past 50,000 is necessary to rise towards upper resistances near 51,000 and 52,000 respectively. Watch price action near 50,000. The overall view is bullish.

DAX (25352.39, +0.26%) closed slightly lower yesterday but while above 25000, a rise to immediate resistance at 26000 looks possible from where a rejection can be seen in the medium term.

Nifty (25665.60, -0.22%) was closed yesterday. There is crucial resistance at 26000 which needs to be broken on the upside for further bullishness. Till then, we may expect trade within the 26000-25600 region with some chances of a fall to 25500/25000.

Nikkei (53716.99, -0.73%) has dipped slightly but could limit it’s downside to 53,000-52,000 in the near term before rebounding towards 54,000+ levels again soon.

Shanghai (4136.86, +0.59%) looks stable below 4200. There is immediate resistance near the 4150-4200 region which needs to be broken on the upside for a sharp upmove in the coming days. Else a test of 4100-4000 looks possible.

Crude prices have eased on softer geopolitical tensions but holding key supports keeps scope for a rebound towards $ 66-$ 68 in Brent and $ 60-$ 62 in WTI. Gold needs a sustained break above $ 4,600 to move higher towards $ 4,650-$ 4,700. Silver may test $ 88-$ 86 before resuming its broader bullish trend. Copper can rebound towards $ 6.10-$ 6.20 while support near $ 5.85 holds. Natural gas remains weak with downside towards $ 3.00 in the near term.

Brent ($ 63.55) has fallen back sharply to a low of $ 63.27 yesterday due to easing geopolitical tensions. President Trump signaled that he may hold off on attacking Iran for now, after the country pledged not to execute protesters. Immediate support is seen near $ 63/$ 62, and while above this, a bounce back towards $ 66-$ 68 remains likely.

WTI ($ 58.93) has reversed sharply and tested a low of $ 58.76, contrary to our expectations. As long as it holds above $ 58, the chances of a bounce back towards $ 60-$ 62 remain likely in the near term.

Gold ($ 4,599.5) is failing to break above $ 4,600. A sustained break above this level is needed for a move higher towards $ 4,650-$ 4,700 in the coming sessions.

Silver ($ 89.95) has fallen back sharply to a low of $ 86.13 after testing a high of $ 93.70. While below $ 94, a decline towards $ 88-$ 86 can be seen in the near term before the broader bullish trend resumes.

Copper ($ 5.9145) has fallen back sharply, contrary to our expectations. Immediate support is seen near $ 5.85, and while this holds, a bounce back towards $ 6.10-$ 6.20 remains likely in the coming sessions.

Natural Gas ($ 3.1580) is falling in line with our expectations and can test $ 3.00 in the near term.

GMT 14:15 IST 19:45 US Ind Production
… 0.5 …Expectations 0.2 …Previous 0.2

GMT 14:15 IST 19:45 US Capacity Utilization
… 76.2 …Expectations 76.1 …Previous 76.0

DATA YESTERDAY
================
GMT 6:00 IST 11:30 UK Trade Bal
…Expectations -20.4 …Previous -22.5 …Actual -23.7

GMT 9:30 IST 15:00 IN Trade bal
…Previous -24.5 …Actual -25

GMT 10:00 IST 15:30 EU Ind Prodn
…Expectations 0.7 Previous 0.7 …Actual 0.7

GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 US Philifed Index
…Expectations -2.9 …Previous -10.2 …Actual 12.6

{GMT 14:00 IST 02:30 US TICS (Net foreign purch of long-term Sec)
…Previous 17.5 …Actual