The Dollar Index is moving within 99.00-99.50 region. The targets of 100.00-100.50 levels are kept open for now. EURUSD can fall towards 1.155-1.150 in the near term. EURINR can trade within 104.50-105.50-106.00 region. EURJPY & USDJPY can attempt to bounce back towards 184/186 & 160-162 levels while they trade above 183 & 157.50 respectively. USDCNY can fall towards 6.95-6.90 levels. Aussie is holding the 0.6650-0.6750 range for now. Pound remains vulnerable to fall towards 1.33-1.325 while it remains below 1.345. USDINR is currently trading near 90.69 region on the NDF. While above 90.50, a further test to 91.00-91.25 can happen in the near term.

Dollar Index (99.353) is stuck between 99.00-99.50 region. Still, we retain our view of seeing a further test to 100.00-100.50 in the near term, while it trades above 98.75.

EURUSD (1.1607) initially fell to the low of 1.1575 before rebounding. While below 1.17, view remains intact to see a test to 1.1550-1.1500 before halting.

EURINR (105.0283) can trade within a range of 104.50-105.50/106.00 region for some time.

EURJPY (183.40) has slipped below 184 but interim support is coming at 183 and lower at 181. While these levels hold, the EURJPY can attempt to rise back towards 184-186 levels in the coming sessions.

Dollar-Yen (157.83) can bounce back towards 160-162 while it sustains above the support coming at 157.50.

USDCNY (6.9663) is slowly inching lower. The view remains intact to see a fall towards 6.95 or even 6.90 in the coming weeks.

Aussie (0.6683) continues to move within the 0.6650-0.6750 range and a break on either side will be needed for further clarity.

Pound (1.3384) has immediate resistance coming around 1.345 region and while it holds, the Pound remains vulnerable to extend the fall towards 1.33-1.325 levels in the coming sessions.

USDINR (90.6890) surged to the high of 90.8750 on Friday. While holding above 90.50, a further rise towards 91.00-91.25 can happen in the coming sessions.

The US Treasury yields have risen sharply. While this sustains, the yields can rise more in the coming days. The German yields remain lower. The bearish view is intact. The yields have room to fall more from here. The 10Yr GoI is continuing to move up in line with our expectation. The bullish view is intact, and the yield can rise more from here.

The US 10Yr (4.22%) and 30Yr (4.84%) Treasury yields have risen sharply. While this rise sustains, the 10Yr can go up to 4.3%-4.35% and the 30Yr can touch 4.9%-4.95% in the coming days.

The German 10Yr (2.83%) and 30Yr (3.42%) yields remain lower and stable. The view of seeing a fall to 2.75%-2.7% (10Yr) and 2.35% (30Yr) will remain intact while below 2.85% (10Yr) and 3.5% (10Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.6767%) continues to move up. The bullish view is intact. The yield can rise to 6.7%-6.75%.

The Dow is closed for Martin Luther King Jr. Holiday. However, we need to see the impact of Trump’s Greenland tariffs on NATO Nations and if the support at 490000 would hold. The DAX is likely to rebound from the support region of 25200-25000. Nifty may consolidate within 26000-25500 region. Nikkei is down from resistance near 54500 and could test 53000-52000 before rebounding later. Shanghai has dipped. A break below 4050, if seen can open lower target of 3900. Else a rebound from 4050 can take it back towards 4150-4200.

The Dow (49359.33, -0.17%)   has immediate support at 49000 above which there is scope for a rise to 50,000-50,500 in the near term. We need to see how the index will move after the Trump’s Greenland tariff announcement on NATO nations. The index is closed today on Martin Luther King Jr. holiday.

DAX (25297.13, -0.22%) has support in the 25200-25000 region from where a rebound looks likely towards 25500-25600 soon.

Nifty (25694.35, +0.11%) seems to be stuck in the 26000-25500 range and needs a clear break on either side for clarity on the medium term movement.

Nikkei (53139.79, -1.48%) has declined from decent resistance near 54500 and while that holds can dip further to 53000-52000 region. Note that 52000 is a crucial support and can produce a rebound in the medium term.

Shanghai (4109.15, +0.18%) has dipped well from resistance at 4200. It the decline sustains, and a break below 4050 is seen, the index can be dragged down further to 3900. Else a rebound from 4050 can help the index consolidate within 4050-4200 region for sometime.

Crude prices are holding firm. Brent and WTI stays above $ 63/$ 62 and $ 58 respectively, supported by Middle East geopolitical tensions, keeping bounce-back chances alive. Gold remains strong above $ 4,600, pointing towards $ 4,700–$ 4,750. Silver has turned sharply higher and looks bullish towards $ 94–$ 96. Copper is at a crucial level near $ 5.8, where a break lower could drag it down, but a hold may trigger a rebound. Natural gas has bounced sharply from $ 3.02, though it needs to clear break above $ 3.6 to extend gains, else it may slip back lower.

Brent ($ 64.14) is holding above the support near $ 63/$ 62. Geopolitical risks surrounding Iran continue to support crude prices, even though the chances of an immediate US response to the protests have eased, as the US is still boosting its military presence in the Middle East. While above this support, a bounce back towards $ 66–$ 68 remains likely.

WTI ($ 59.37) is trading above $ 58. As long as this level holds, the chances of a bounce back towards $ 60–$ 62 remain likely in the near term.

Gold ($ 4,665.9) has moved above $ 4,600. While it stays above this level, a further rise towards $ 4,700–$ 4,750 can be seen in the coming sessions.

Silver ($ 92.91) closed lower at $ 88.54 yesterday, but has opened higher today at $ 90.61 and is moving up sharply. The outlook remains bullish, with a move towards $ 94–$ 96 likely in the near term.

Copper ($ 5.8925) fell to a low of $ 5.77 on Friday. A sustained break below $ 5.8 is needed for a further fall towards $ 5.6–$ 5.4; otherwise, it can bounce back towards $ 6.0–$ 6.2.

Natural Gas ($ 3.4910) tested support near $ 3.02 on Friday. Today, it has opened higher with a gap up at $ 3.50. A sustained break above $ 3.6 is needed for a move towards $ 3.8–$ 4.0; otherwise, it can fall back to $ 3.2–$ 3.0.

GMT 10:00 IST 15:30 EU CPI
… 2.3 …Previous 2.0

GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 CA Inflation
…Previous 2.2

DATA LAST FRIDAY
================
GMT 14:15 IST 19:45 US Ind Production
… 0.5 …Expectations 0.2 …Previous 0.2

GMT 14:15 IST 19:45 US Capacity Utilization
… 76.2 …Expectations 76.1 …Previous 76.0