The Dollar Index declined yesterday amid rising tensions between US and Europe over President Donald Trump’s proposal to purchase Greenland. The Dollar Index is stuck within 99.50-99.00 region. The targets of 100.00-100.50 levels are kept open for now. EURUSD faces immediate resistance between 1.1650-1.1700 region. EURINR is trading higher within 104.50-106.00 range. EURJPY & USDJPY can head toward 185/186 & 160-162 levels respectively. USDCNY can fall toward 6.95-6.90 levels. Aussie is holding the 0.6650-0.6750 range for now. Pound is attempting to rise back but faces resistance at 1.350-1.355 which can limit the upside. USDINR rose to 90.9950 yesterday. The pair need to see a break past 91 to bring 91.25-91.50 levels into picture.

Dollar Index (99.06) continues to consolidate between 99.50-99.00 region. Still, the targets of 100.00-100.50 are kept alive while the pair trades above 98.75.

EURUSD (1.1640) faces immediate resistance around 1.165-1.170 region. While these resistance holds, we continue to expect a decline toward 1.1550–1.1500 in the near term.

EURINR (105.8764) is trading near the upper end of its 104.50–106.00 range. A break above 106 is needed to move towards 107 and higher. Else, it may continue to consolidate within the 104.50–106.00 range.

EURJPY (183.96) rebounded from 182.72 itself. While the rise sustains, a further test to 185-186 levels can happen in the coming sessions.

Dollar-Yen (158.01) has bounced from the support near 157.42 as anticipated and if sustained, can head towards 160-162 levels in the near term.

USDCNY (6.9605) is slowly inching lower. The view remains intact to see a fall towards 6.95 or even 6.90 in the coming weeks.

Aussie (0.6713) continues to move within the 0.6650-0.6750 range

Pound (1.3424) has recovered well from the low of 1.3338 but faces immediate resistance between 1.350-1.355 which can cap the upside for now.

USDINR (90.9270) rose to 90.9950 before closing lower. A sustained break above 91 is required to trigger a further rise towards 91.25–91.50 in the near term.

The US Treasury yields have moved up further. The bias is positive as the yields are getting a good follow-through rise after breaking their resistance. The yields can rise more from here. The German Yields have moved up. Key resistances are ahead which have to be broken to negate our bearish view. We will have to wait and watch. The 10Yr GoI sustains higher. There is room to rise further to test its resistance. Thereafter the yield can turn down again.

The US 10Yr (4.25%) and 30Yr (4.87%) Treasury yields have moved up further. That keeps intact our bullish view of seeing 4.3%-4.35% (10Yr) and 4.9%-4.95% (30Yr). Support is at 4.2% (10Yr) and 4.8% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (2.84%) and 30Yr (3.45%) yields have risen. 2.85% (10Yr) and 3.5% (30Yr) are key resistances. The yields have to break this resistance to negate the fall to 2.75%-2.7% (10Yr) and 2.35% (30Yr) and move higher. We will have to wait and watch.

The 10Yr GoI (6.6842%) sustains higher. The upside remains open to test 6.7%-6.75%. Thereafter the yield can reverse lower.

The Dow was closed for Martin Luther King Jr. Holiday yesterday. Trump’s threat to hike tariffs for European countries if they oppose his bid to buy Greenland has led the DAX to decline below 25000. Dax can further dip to 24500-24000 unless an immediate bounce back is seen from here. Nifty tested support at 25500. This needs to hold for Nifty to rise again in the near term else 25000 will come into the picture . Nikkei looks bearish towards 53000-52000. Shanghai trades above 4100 now. Only a break below 4050, if seen can make it vulnerable to decline towards 4000-3900. Else it can test 4150-4200 while above 4050.

The Dow (49359.33, -0.17%)   has immediate support at 49000 above which there is scope for a rise to 50,000-50,500 in the near term. The index was closed yesterday on Martin Luther King Jr. holiday.

DAX (24959.06, -1.34%) fell sharply breaking our mentioned support near 25000. The fall came in after Trump’s threat to hike tariffs on European countries if they oppose his bid to buy Greenland. If the index does not bounce back immediately, it could be vulnerable to a decline to 24500-24000 while below 25000.

Nifty (25585.50, -0.42%) tested support near 25,500 yesterday. While this level holds, a bounce back towards 26,000 is possible, keeping the index in a 25,500–26,000 range. However, a decisive break below 25,500 can drag the index down to 25,200-25000.

Nikkei (53151.37, -0.81%) continues to dip while below the resistance at 54500. A further dip to 53000-52000 region looks possible. Note that 52000 is a crucial support and can produce a rebound in the medium term.

Shanghai (4115.84, +0.045%) is stable above 4100. We remain cautious while below 4200. A break below 4050, if seen, can drag the index down to 3900.

Brent and WTI are holding above key supports, keeping the chances of a bounce towards $ 66–$ 68 and $ 60–$ 62 alive, respectively. Gold and Silver remain firm with upside seen towards $ 4,750 and $ 96–$ 98. Copper is stable above $ 5.8 and can recover towards $ 6.0–$ 6.2 unless this support breaks. Natural Gas has dipped and needs to sustain above $ 3.6 to move up towards $ 3.8–$ 4.0.

Brent ($ 63.94) is holding above the support near $ 63/$ 62. While this support holds, a bounce back towards $ 66–$ 68 remains likely.

WTI ($ 59.30) is trading above $ 58. As long as this level holds, a bounce back towards $ 60–$ 62 looks likely in the near term.

Gold ($ 4,676.8) can extend its rise towards $ 4,700–$ 4,750 in the coming sessions.

Silver ($ 93.11) tested a high of $ 94.75 in line with our expectations. A further rise towards $ 96–$ 98 can be seen in the near term.

Copper ($ 5.86) is holding above $ 5.8. A sustained break below this level is needed for a fall towards $ 5.6–$ 5.4; otherwise, it can bounce back towards $ 6.0–$ 6.2.

Natural Gas ($ 3.5580) rose to a high of $ 3.71 in line with our expectations but closed lower at $ 3.5580 yesterday. It needs to sustain above $ 3.6 to head higher towards $ 3.8–$ 4.0; else, it can fall back towards $ 3.2–$ 3.0.

GMT 6:00 IST 11:30 UK Unemp
…Expectations 5.0 …Previous 5.1

DATA YESTERDAY
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GMT 10:00 IST 15:30 EU CPI
… 2.0 …Expectations 2.0 …Previous 2.1 …Actual 1.9

GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 CA Inflation
…Previous 2.8 ….Actual 2.8