The Dollar Index has slightly inched lower but while it sustains above 98, the view remains intact to see a rise back towards 99.50 and higher. EURUSD & EURINR have risen further but the upside looks capped at 1.1750-1.1800 & 108-108.50 respectively. EURJPY & USDJPY can head towards 187-188 & 160-162 levels respectively in the near term. USDCNY is stuck between 6.98-6.96 region. Aussie can test 0.69 soon before getting peaked out. Pound is trading higher within its 1.330-1.355 range. USDINR is trading near 91.50 region on the NDF. Higher resistance is seen at 92.00–92.15, where the immediate upside is likely to be capped. Watch out for the BOJ meeting scheduled today wherein the Central Bank is expected to keep the interest rates steady at 0.75%.

Dollar Index (98.759) has declined to 98.26 so far. Immediate support is coming at 98.25-98.00 and while it holds we retain our view of seeing a rebound towards 99.50 or even higher in the coming sessions.

EURUSD (1.1748) has risen well but faces resistance between 1.1750-1.1800 which can cap the upside for now.

EURINR (107.6041) has also strengthened and while the rise sustains, a test to 108.00-108.50 can happen in the near term before getting peaked out.

EURJPY (186.29) is rising as expected and while it sustains above 186, the targets of 187-188 can get tested in the near term.

Dollar-Yen (158.57) can attempt to rise toward 160-162 levels while it sustains above 158 in the near term.

USDCNY (6.9632) is consolidating between 6.98-6.96 region since the last few sessions but still the view remains intact to see a fall towards 6.95 or even 6.90 in the coming weeks.

Aussie (0.6793) rose sharply to the high of 0.6853 as the AU unemployment rate released lower than expected at 4.1% (4.4%). While the rise sustains, a test to 0.69 can happen before getting peaked out.

Pound (1.3494) is moving near the upper end of its 1.330-1.355 range which can hold for some time.

USDINR (91.51) looks stable around 91.50 region for now. Immediate resistance is coming around 92.00-92.15 region which can get tested before getting peaked out. Watch price action closely for any intervention from RBI.

The US Treasury yields remain lower. Support is there to limit the downside from here. Bias is positive for the yields to rise going forward. The US PCE, the Fed’s inflation gauge, data release yesterday did not have any impact on the yields. The PCE rose 2.77% (YoY) in November. The German yields remain stable around their resistance. A strong follow-through rise is needed to go up from here and avoid falling back. The 10Yr GoI has dipped further. Further fall is likely from here before the yield reverses higher again.

The US 10Yr (4.24%) and 30Yr (4.84%) Treasury yields remain lower. While above 4.2% (10Yr) and 4.8% (30Yr) the bias is positive to see a rise back to 4.35% (10Yr) and 5% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (2.89%) and 30Yr (3.50%) yields remain higher but stable. A strong follow-through rise from here is needed to go up to 2.9%-2.95% (10Yr) and 3.6% (30Yr). That in turn will negate the fall back to 2.75%-2.7% (10Yr) and 2.35% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.6352%) has dipped below 6.65%. That opens the door to see a fall to 6.6%-6.55% first. Thereafter the yield can rise back to target 6.7%-6.75% on the upside.

The Dow and DAX have moved up and can test 49500-50000 and 25000 respectively. Nifty has managed to hold above 25000 but needs a decisive break above 25600 for medium term bullishness. Nikkei and Shanghai can rise in the near term towards 54000-55000 and 4200 respectively.

The Dow(49384.01, +0.63%)  has risen well and could be soon headed towards 49,500-50,000 eventually.

DAX (24856.47, +1.20%) is slowly headed towards 25000 which can be tested in the next few sessions. However, a decisive break above 25500 is needed for medium term bullishness.

Nifty (25289.90, +0.53%) tested 25435.75 in early trade yesterday but dipped to close lower for the day. Overall, while above 25000, we may expect trade within the 25600-25000 region. In the medium term, we need to see a break above 25600 for further upmove to set in. However, we do not fully negate a possible decline below 25000 for a test of lower support at 24000.

Nikkei (53804.37, +0.22%) has risen on expectations that the Bank of Japan will hold rates at 0.75% in its policy meeting today. A gradual rise towards 54,000-55,000 is on the cards in the coming weeks while above 53,000.

Shanghai (4130.16, +0.18%) is holding steady above 4100 and could continue to trade within the 4200-4050 region.

Brent has dipped on peace talk signals but can remain range-bound between $ 63–$ 67 while above $ 63. WTI is holding near $ 59 and can trade within a $ 59–$ 62 range in the near term. Gold is moving up as expected and can test $ 5,000, needing a break above for further upside. Silver is also moving higher and can test the $ 99–$ 100 in the near term. Copper is holding above $ 5.8 and can bounce towards $ 5.9–$ 6.0 if support sustains. Natural gas remains bullish after the recent surge, with the near-term target still seen at $ 6.0.

Brent ($ 64.48) has dipped after Ukrainian President Zelenskiy signaled progress in peace talks to end the war with Russia. While above $ 63, a range of $ 63–$ 67 can hold for some time.

WTI ($ 59.76) has fallen back from the high of $ 60.82. Immediate support is seen near $ 59, and while this holds, a range of $ 59–$ 62 can persist for some time.

Gold ($ 4,956.80) is moving up in line with our expectation and can soon test $ 5,000. Thereafter, a break above $ 5,000 is needed for a further rise towards $ 5,100–$ 5,200.

Silver ($ 98.56) is moving up in line with our expectations and can test $ 99–$ 100 in the near term.

Copper ($ 5.8285) is holding above $ 5.8, and if this level sustains, a bounce back towards $ 5.9–$ 6.0 can take place in the coming weeks. Else, a sustained break below this can drag it down to $ 5.6–$ 5.5.

Natural Gas ($ 4.9830) surged to a high of $ 5.65 in line with our expectation before closing lower at $ 5.04 yesterday. The view remains bullish towards $ 6.0 in the near term.

GMT 23:05 IST 04:35 UK Cons Conf
…Expectations -16.0 …Previous -17.0

GMT 23:30 IST 05:00 JP CPI
2.7 …Expectations 2.4 …Previous 2.9

GMT 3:00 IST 08:30 BOJ Meeting
…Expectations 0.75 …Previous 0.75 –

DATA YESTERDAY
================
GMT 1:30 IST 07:00 Australia Labour Force
…Expectations 26.5 …Previous -28.7 …Actual 65.2

GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 US Personal Income
0.2 …Previous 0.4 …Actual 0.3

GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 US PCE Price Index
0.1 …Previous 0.2 …Actual 0.2

GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 US Core PCE
0.1 …Previous 0.2 …Actual 0.2

GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 US GDP
…Expectations 4.3 …Previous 4.3 …Actual 4.3