The DXY fell sharply on speculation of coordinated US-Japan intervention to support the Yen. Our targets have gotten revised on major currencies due to this unexpected volatility. The Dollar Index dropped to 96.80 before rebounding and, while above 96, can attempt to rise further. EURUSD and EURINR have extended gains but face resistance near 1.19-1.20 and 110 respectively. EURJPY and USDJPY declined but can recover while above 182 and 152. USDCNY needs to break below 6.95 to open 6.90. The Aussie has turned bullish above 0.6900, targeting 0.6950-0.7000, while the Pound remains bullish above 1.3650 toward 1.3750-1.3800. USDINR was closed due to Republic Day.

Dollar Index (97.023) turned lower in the last 2-3 sessions over the possible intervention by US-Japan to support Yen. Now, interim support is coming at 96.80 and deeper at 96 which is expected to hold and take DXY higher eventually. A fall below 97/96 is not expected as of now.

EURUSD (1.1888) surged significantly to the high of 1.1906 over the Dollar weakness. Now, either from current levels or upon testing the higher resistance coming at 1.20, a pullback towards 1.18-1.16 can occur in the medium term.

EURINR (109.0315) has also moved past our target of 108.50 and if sustained can initially test the resistance around 110 region before getting peaked out.

EURJPY (183.39) fell sharply from the high of 186.87 to 181.78 but has since recovered well. While above 182, a move within the broad 182-186 range can happen.

BOJ kept the interest rates unchanged at 0.75% on Friday as widely expected. Dollar-Yen (154.30) fell sharply to 153.30, contrary to our view of seeing a rise towards 160-162 levels due to possible intervention. Now, immediate support is coming at 152, above which a bounce back toward 156 and higher levels in the near term.

USDCNY (6.9570) is coming off gradually and a break below 6.95 will be needed to extend the fall towards 6.90 or slightly lower.

Aussie (0.6793) has surged to a high of 0.6941 yesterday, breaking above the resistance at 0.6900. While it sustains above this level, a further rise towards 0.6950–0.7000 can be seen in the near term.

Pound (1.3494) has broken above the resistance at 1.3650 and surged to a high of 1.3713 yesterday. A further rise towards 1.3750-1.3800 looks likely in the coming sessions.

USDINR (91.6930) remained closed yesterday on the account of Republic Day. Immediate resistance is seen near 92 and while it holds a pullback towards 91.50-91.25 remains possible.

The US Treasury yields are coming down. They can test their support and then rise back again. Broadly, the bias is positive, and the current dip could be short lived. The Fed meeting outcome tomorrow night will be important to watch. The German Yields are struggling to rise further. That keeps alive the chances of seeing a fall back. We will have to wait and see what happens. The 10Yr GoI has risen back. There is room to rise further. But at the same time, the chance of an intermediate dip is also alive before the expected rise happens.

The US 10Yr (4.23%) and 30Yr (4.82%) Treasury yields are coming down to test their support at 4.2% (10Yr) and 4.8% (30Yr). The yields can rise back from their support and go up to 4.35% (10Yr) and 5% (30Yr) eventually.

The German 10Yr (2.86%) and 30Yr (3.48%) yields are struggling to rise further and extend the upside towards 2.9%-2.95% (10Yr) and 3.6% (30Yr). That keeps alive the danger of seeing a fall back to 2.75%-2.7% (10Yr) and 2.35% (30Yr). It is a wait and watch.

The 10Yr GoI (6.6635%) has risen back above 6.65% again. The upside is open to test 6.7%-6.75%. But whether the rise can happen straight away or after a dip to 6.6% is not clear.

The Dow and DAX have moved up and can test 49500-50000 and 25000-25500 respectively.  Nifty slipped again after pausing for a while. A decline to 24000 cannot be negated unless an immediate bounce back is seen from 25000. Nikkei has dipped on a stronger Yen but can eventually rise back towards 54000/55000. Shanghai can trade within 4050-4200 in the near term.

The Dow(49412.40, +0.64%)  is headed towards 49,500-50,000 in the near term. Support at 48000 is holding well for now.

DAX (24933.08, +0.13%)   has reached towards our expected target of 25000. A decisive break above 25500 is needed for medium term bullishness.

Nifty (25048.65, -0.95%) slid again on Friday after a brief pause. A decisive break below 25000, could still bring lower support of 24000 into the picture. Only a bounce back from 25000, if seen can hold the index steady and eventually push it higher in the medium term. The index could face some volatility by end of this week and the next as eyes are on the budget due on 1st Feb 2026.

Nikkei (52810.80, -0.14%) declined yesterday on a stronger Yen. But while above support at 52000, a rise towards 54,000-55,000 is on the cards in the medium term. Only a break below 52000, if seen would turn bearish for the index.

Shanghai (4129.34,-0.079%) is holding steady above 4100 and could continue to trade within the 4200-4050 region.

Brent is consolidating between $ 63–$ 67, while WTI remains weak and is likely to trade within $ 59–$ 62. Gold has broken above $ 5000 and, while holding above it, can extend gains towards $ 5100–$ 5200. Silver remains strongly bullish above $ 100 and can rise further towards $ 120–$ 125. Copper has tested $ 6 and may correct towards $ 5.8–$ 5.7 while below this level. Natural Gas has turned bearish below $ 4.0 and can decline further towards $ 3.6–$ 3.4 in the near term.

Brent ($ 65.20) can trade within a range of $ 63–$ 67 for some time.

WTI ($ 60.42) has dipped and can remain ranged between $ 59–$ 62 for some time.

Gold ($ 5055.30) has broken above $ 5000 and, while holding above this level, a further rise towards $ 5100–$ 5200 can be seen in the near term.

Silver ($ 110.14) has broken above $ 100 and surged to an all-time high of $ 117.70 yesterday. While it holds above $ 100, a further rise towards $ 120–$ 125 can be seen in the near term.

Copper ($ 5.8990) has risen to $ 6 yesterday in line with our expectation. While below this level, a fall back towards $ 5.8–$ 5.7 can be seen.

Natural Gas ($ 3.80) has plunged back below $ 4.0, contrary to our expectation of a rise towards $ 6.0. A further decline towards $ 3.6–$ 3.4 can be seen in the near term.

NO MAJOR DATA RELEASES TODAY.

DATA YESTERDAY
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GMT 09:00 IST 14:30 German IFO Bus climate
…Expectations 88.3 …Previous 87.6 …Actual 87.6

GMT 09:00 IST 14:30 German IFO Bus situation …Previous 85.6 …Actual

GMT 09:00 IST 14:30 German IFO Bus expn
…Previous 89.7 …Actual

GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 US Durable Goods orders
…Expectations 3.1 …Previous -2.2 …Actual 5.3