The FED kept the interest rates unchanged at 3.75%. DXY need to hold above 96 to rebound towards 98, else risks slipping to 94. EURUSD can extend the fall towards 1.19/18 while it trades below 1.21. EURINR has resistance at 111 which could limit upside and aid the pair to decline in the near term. EURJPY can hold the 182-186 range for now. USDJPY can target 156 in the near term while it remains above 152. USDCNY may ease towards 6.90. Aussie has moved above 0.70 and can head towards 0.71/72 in the coming sessions. Similarly, Pound can also rise towards 1.40/4050 before halting. USDINR can continue trade within 91.50-92.00 for the near term. Only a break past 92 if seen can take it towrads 92.25 initially. US Housing starts & US Trade balance data releases are scheduled to release today.

Dollar Index (96.306) can attempt to rise back towards 98 and above while it sustains above 96.00-95.50. A confirmed break below 95.50 will be needed to shift the focus towards 94 and lower levels but it seems less likely at the moment.

EURUSD (1.1962) is coming off and while below 1.21, a pullback towards 1.19-1.18 can occur in the coming sessions. Only a sustained move above 1.20 if seen can make the outlook further bullish.

EURINR (110.1782) looks stable above 110 but a resistance can be seen around 111 region in the longer term charts which can limit the upside for now.

EURJPY (183.39) is stuck between 182-184 region. Overall,.the broad 182-186 range is expected to hold for now.

Dollar-Yen (153.08) is rising gradually and the target of 156 can get tested while it remains above 152.

USDCNY (6.9474) has slipped below 6.95 and if sustained, can extend the fall towards 6.90 or slightly lower.

Aussie (0.7040) has moved above 0.70 and while the pair trades above 0.69, a further test to 0.71-0.72 looks possible before getting peaked out.

Pound (1.3494) has a scope to rise towards the resistance coming between 1.400-1.4050 before coming down eventually.

USDINR (91.9440) bounced back from 91.50. We may expect trade within 91.50-92.00 to hold for the near term. Although a break above 92 if seen can take it towards 92.25 initially before halting. Watch price action closely around 92.

The US Treasury yields have inched up. For now, the yields are stuck inside a narrow range. The bias is positive to see a bullish breakout eventually. The US Fed kept the rates unchanged at 3.5%-3.75% in its meeting yesterday. This event did not have a major impact on the yields. The German yields continue to remain stable. Failure to get a strong rise from here will continue to keep it vulnerable for a fall. The 10Yr GoI has risen sharply. It can rise further to test its resistance and then come down thereafter.

The US 10Yr (4.25%) and 30Yr (4.87%) Treasury yields have inched up slightly. We retain our bullish bias to see a rise to 4.35% (10Yr) and 5% (30Yr) while the yields sustain above .2% (10Yr) and 4.8% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (2.86%) and 30Yr (3.49%) yields continue to remain stable. We remain cautious as a fall to 2.75%-2.7% (10Yr) and 2.35% (30Yr) is possible rather than rising towards 2.9%-2.95% (10Yr) and 3.6% (30Yr) from here.

The 10Yr GoI (6.7030%) has risen to 6.7% much faster than expected. There is room to test 6.75%. Thereafter the yield can fall back.

The Dow is holding steady and could target 49500-50000 in the near term. The FED kept key rates unchanged. The Dax can trade within 24500-25000 for a few sessions while Nifty has shown some signs of a rise but needs to break past 25600 to continue rise towards 26000 and higher. Nikkei could rise towards 54000/55000 while above support near 52000/53000. Shanghai can continue trade within 4200-4100.

The Dow(49015.60, +0.025%) traded between 49150-48900 region. Support is seen near 48500-48000 region above which the index can rise slowly in the coming sessions towards 49500-50000.

DAX (24822.79, -0.29%) is likely to trade within 24500-25000 region in the near term before moving up further towards 25500.

Nifty (25342.75, +0.66%) has risen yesterday and if the momentum continues, a test of 25600 is on the cards for the coming sessions. Thereafter, a decisive break above 25600 is needed for the index to rise further.

Nikkei (53234.16, -0.23%) has dipped slightly but is likely to hold steady above support near 52000 and gradually rise towards 55000.

Shanghai (4148.23, -0.072%) looks stable near current levels and is likely to trade within 4200-4100 region for the next few sessions.

Brent and WTI are rising as expected on geopolitical tensions, with upside seen towards $ 70–$ 71 and $ 65–$ 66 respectively. Gold remains strongly bullish after hitting fresh all-time highs and can extend gains towards $ 5800–$ 6000. Silver is likely to move up towards $ 120–$ 125. Copper needs a sustained break above $ 6.10 to rise further, else it may slip towards $ 5.70. Natural gas remains weak with downside seen towards $ 3.60–$ 3.40.

Brent ($ 68.99) is moving up in line with our expectations after President Trump threatened another attack on Iran unless it negotiates a nuclear deal. A further rise towards $ 70–$ 71 looks likely in the near term.

WTI ($ 63.81) has moved up as expected and can rise further towards $ 65–$ 66 in the near term.

Gold ($ 5573.30) has surged well beyond our expectations and tested a fresh all-time high of $ 5415 yesterday. Today, it has already seen a high of $ 5626. The outlook remains bullish, with a potential rise towards $ 5800–$ 6000 in the near term.

Silver ($ 117.53) is moving up in line with our expectations and can rise towards the mentioned levels of $ 120–$ 125 in the near term.

Copper ($ 6.04) has risen but needs a sustained break above $ 6.10 to move higher. Otherwise, it can decline towards $ 5.70.

Natural Gas ($ 3.76) remains weak and can decline further towards $ 3.60–$ 3.40 in the coming sessions.

10:00 15:30 EU Biz Climate
…Previous 96.7

13:30 19:00 US Housing Starts
…Previous 1246

13:30 19:00 US Trade Balance
…Expectations -44.5 …Previous -29.4

DATA YESTERDAY
================
1:30 07:00 AU CPI
3.9 …Expectations 3.6 …Previous 3.2 …Actual 3.7

12:00 17:30 IN IIP
5.7 …Previous 7.2 …Actual 7.8

14:00 19:30 BOC Meeting
…Expectations 2.25 …Previous 2.25 …Actual 2.25

23:30 05:00 US FOMC Meeting
…Expectations <3.75 ...Previous <3.75 ...Actual 3.75