The DXY has a scope to rebound towards 98 while it remains above 96. EURUSD & EURINR can fall towards 1.18 & 109/108 while they trade below 1.21 & 111 respectively. and 110. EURJPY can hold the 182-186 range for now. USDJPY can target 156 in the near term while it remains above 152. USDCNY may ease towards 6.90. Aussie & Pound can decline towards 0.69-0.68 & 1.36 in the coming sessions if the ongoing fall persists. USDINR tested the resistance near 92 and closed slightly lower. A break above 92 can take it higher towards 92.25-92.50. US PPI data is scheduled for release today.

Dollar Index (96.641) has risen well past 96, and if the up move sustains, a test of 98 or higher looks likely in the near term. Only a confirmed break below 95.50 could shift focus toward 94 and lower levels, which appears less likely at the moment.

EURUSD (1.1902) has tested our initial target of 1.19 in line with our view and while below 1.21, a fall towards 1.18 or slightly lower can occur in the coming sessions.

EURINR (109.4794) failed to sustain its rise past 110 and started declining from 110.33 itself. While below 111, a pullback towards 109-108 can happen in the near term.

EURJPY (183.15) continues to remain stuck between 182-184 region. Overall,the broad 182-186 range is expected to hold for now.

Dollar-Yen (153.83) is rising gradually and the target of 156 can get tested while it remains above 152.

USDCNY (6.9503) has recovered slightly from the low of 6.9442. The target of 6.90 is kept open while the pair trades below 7.00 level.

Aussie (0.6993) tested the resistance at 0.71 before coming down. While the resistance holds, a pullback towards 0.69-0.68 can happen in the coming sessions.

Pound (1.3760) was expected to rise towards 1.40/4050 but it started coming off from 1.3847 itself. Immediate resistance turned support is coming around 1.36 region which can get tested if the fall continues further.

USDINR (91.85) is holding the 91.50-92.00 range for now. A sustained break above 92 can push it higher towards 92.25-92.50 levels.

The US Treasury yields sustain higher. The bias remains positive to break the immediate resistance and rise further. The German Yields remain stable. They continue to remain vulnerable for a fall. A strong rise above their immediate resistance is needed to negate the expected fall. The 10Yr GoI has come down from its high on Thursday. There is room to rise more from here before a reversal happens.

The US 10Yr (4.27%) and 30Yr (4.90%) Treasury yields sustain higher. That keeps intact our bullish view of seeing 4.35% (10Yr) and 5% (30Yr) on the upside while above 4.2% (10Yr) and 4.8% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (2.84%) and 30Yr (3.49%) yields remain lower but stable. The fall to 2.75%-2.7% (10Yr) and 2.35% (30Yr) is still possible.

The 10Yr GoI (6.6984%) touched a high of 6.7264 and has come down. The upside remains open to see 6.75% before a reversal happens.

The Dow is holding above support at 48500 and can rise towards 49500/600 in the near term while the Dax has declined sharply and has scope for further dip to 24000-23800 in the coming days. Nifty could trade between 25000-25500/600 for the near term. Thereafter, a decisive break past 25600 will be bullish towards 26000-26500 in the longer run. Nikkei could rise towards 54000/55000 while above support near 53000. Shanghai can continue trade within 4200-4100.

The Dow(49071.56, +0.11%) has held daily trend support near 48500 and moved to close higher. A rise to 49500-49600 is possible, while above 48500. Thereafter, a decisive break above 49600 is needed for further bullishness towards 50000-51000.

DAX (24309.46, -2.07%) declined sharply yesterday, falling to more than 2%. The index can fall further towards 24000-23800 in the next few sessions before pausing for a reversal.

Nifty (25418.90, +0.30%) has risen yesterday as expected. We continue to look at the near-term range trade between 25000-25500/600. A decisive break above 25600 is needed for the index to rise further towards 26000-26500. Note that on the weekly candles, 25000 is an important support.

Nikkei (53520.86, +0.27%) trades above immediate support at 53000 and has scope to rise towards 54000-55000 soon.

Shanghai (4131.99, -0.63%) has immediate support at 4100, above which there is scope for a near-term trade between 4100-4200/4250 region. Only a break below 4100, if seen, can take the index down towards 4050-4000.

Brent and WTI have strengthened on Middle East geopolitical tensions, with further upside seen towards $ 72–$ 73 and $ 67–$ 68 respectively. Gold has pulled back from record highs and needs to hold above $ 5600 to revive upside momentum. Silver remains weak below $ 120 with downside risks. Copper is easing from recent highs but stays positive above $ 6. Natural Gas has turned higher, with a break above $ 4 opening room for further gains.

Brent ($ 68.99) surged to a high of $ 71.89 yesterday. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East are pushing crude prices higher as President Trump warned Iran to agree to a nuclear deal or face military strikes. A further rise towards $ 72–$ 73 can be seen in the near term.

WTI ($ 64.76) tested a high of $ 66.68 yesterday, in line with our expectation. A further rise towards $ 67–$ 68 looks likely in the coming sessions.

Gold ($ 5331.70) tested a fresh all-time high of $ 5626.80 yesterday and has fallen back to current levels. It needs to sustain above $ 5600 to see the earlier mentioned levels of $ 5800–$ 6000. Otherwise, it risks falling towards $ 5200–$ 5000 on the downside.

Silver ($ 113.15) tested the mentioned level near $ 120 and has fallen back sharply from there. While it holds below $ 120, it risks a further fall towards $ 110–$ 100.

Copper ($ 6.06) surged to a high of $ 6.58 yesterday. Today, it is easing back from the intraday high of $ 6.39. While it remains above $ 6, a bounce back towards $ 6.40–$ 6.60 looks likely.

Natural Gas ($ 3.8540) has bounced back, contrary to our expectations. A break above $ 4 can take it higher towards $ 4.2–$ 4.4.

GMT 23:30 IST 05:00 JP Unemp
…Expectations 2.6 …Previous 2.6

GMT 10:00 IST 15:30 EU Unemp
…Expectations 6.3 …Previous 6.3

GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 US PPI
…Expectations 0.2 …Previous 0.2

GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 US PPI ex Food & Energy
…Expectations 0.3 …Previous 0.0

DATA YESTERDAY
================
GMT 10:00 15:30 EU Biz Climate
…Previous 97.2 …Actual 99.4

GMT 13:30 19:00 US Housing Starts
…Previous 1246

{GMT 13:30 19:00 US Trade Balance
…Expectations -44.5 …Previous -29.4 …Actual -56.8