The DXY can trade within 98.50-96.00 for now. EURUSD has recovered but a rise past 1.1850 will be needed to head towards 1.19 and above. EURINR has a scope to rise back towards 108 and higher while it remains above the support coming around 106.00-105.50. EURJPY can remain within the 182-186 range. While USDJPY has risen past 156 and if sustained, can test 158 in the coming sessions. USDCNY can drift toward 6.90-6.85 levels. The Aussie may trade within 0.69-0.71 region. While Pound can attempt to bounce towards 1.38 if it sustained above 1.36. USDINR can remain ranged within 90-91 region for now. IN Services PMI & US ADP Employment data are scheduled for release today.

Dollar Index (97.463) need to see a sustained move above 97.50 to head towards the resistance coming near 98.50 region. Overall, a broad 96.00-98.50 range can hold in the near term.

EURUSD (1.1825) has recovered well from the low of 1.1779 but a sustained move past 1.185 will be needed to bring 1.19 and higher levels back into picture. The downside targets of 1.1750-1.1700 are kept open while the pair trades below 1.185.

EURINR (106.9091) initially tested 106.33 before recovering. While the support between 106.00-105.50 holds, the pair can attempt to rise back towards 108 and above in the near term.

EURJPY (184.65) is rising within the 182-186 range which is expected to hold for some time before a breakout is seen on either side.

Dollar-Yen (156.15) has moved past 156, contrary to our view of seeing a fall to 154-153. If the ongoing rise sustains, a test to 158 can happen in the near term.

USDCNY (6.9334) can gradually decline towards 6.90-6.85 levels in the near term.

Aussie (0.7024) continues to remain ranged within 0.69-0.71 region and a break on either side will be needed for further clarity.

Pound (1.3704) has bounced well and while above 1.36, the pair can attempt a rebound towards 1.38 and above.

USDINR (90.30) can remain ranged between 90-91 for some time while it trades above the support of 90.

The US Treasury yields sustain higher. They are range bound now and are going up within that. We expect the yields to make a bullish breakout eventually. The German yields are heading up and can rise further. The danger of seeing a fall back has eased. The ECB meeting outcome tomorrow will need a close watch. The 10Yr GoI has come down. But support can limit the downside. Outlook is bullish and the yield can rise back and keep the uptrend intact.

The US 10Yr (4.29%) and 30Yr (4.91%) Treasury yields are higher but stable. They can test the upper end of their 4.2%-4.3%/4.35% (10Yr) and 4.8%-4.95% (30Yr) range. We expect a bullish breakout of this range either now itself or eventually going forward.

The German 10Yr (2.89%) and 30Yr (3.55%) yields are heading up towards 2.95% (10Yr) and 3.6% (30Yr). The chances of the fall to 2.75%-2.7% (10Yr) and 3.35% (30Yr) seems to be easing.

The 10Yr GoI (6.7245%) has come down. But support si in the broad 6.7%-6.65% region. While above this support, the bias is bullish to see a rise back to 6.8% and even 6.95%-7% over the medium term.

The Dow and the DAX have dipped. Although both indices can show a corrective dip, they need to sustain above 49000-48500 and 24000 to gradually turn bullish in the medium term. Nifty opened with a gap up as expected but declined to close below 25800. With 250000-24000 being a strong long term support, we may now expect Nifty to start rising slowly with an initial test of 26500 soon. Nikkei is headed towards 55000 while above 53000. Shanghai manages to hold above 4050 and could show a gradual rise towards 4100-4200. A broad range of 4050-4200 may continue to hold.

The Dow(49240.99, -0.34%) dipped after testing 49653 yesterday. Note that 49000-48500 is a crucial support zone above which the index will have to sustain to eventually turn bullish towards 52000+ levels. Else a break below 48500, if seen can be bearish for the index and drag it sharply lower in the longer run. Watch price action near 49000-48500.

DAX (24780.79, -0.067%) tested 25098 as expected and dipped slightly to close lower. While below 25000, the index could see a corrective dip towards 24500 before rising towards 25500.

Nifty (25727.55, +2.55%) opened with a gap up yesterday, tested 26341 in line with our expectations of a rise to 26000-26500. But it failed to sustain and fell back to close below 25800. There could be some chances of a dip to 25400-25000 again in the medium term but we may now expect Nifty to slowly start rising. A decisive break above 26500 is needed for a bullish breakout.

Nikkei (54236.51, -0.88%) moved up as expected. The index can continue to rise towards 55000 with some interim dips. Overall, the view is bullish above 53000.

Shanghai (4073.86, +0.15%) has moved up today. While the index manages to sustain above 4050, a slow rise to 4100-4200 is possible.

Crude prices have bounced back from recent lows amid rising US-Iran tensions. Brent likely to trade within $ 65-$ 70 and WTI within $ 61-$ 66 for now. Gold and Silver have rebounded in line with expectations and can continue their upward move towards $ 5200-$ 5300 and $ 88-$ 89 respectively. Copper has also turned higher and can extend gains towards $ 6.10-$ 6.20. Natural Gas has bounced from $ 3.2 support and can rise further towards $ 3.4-$ 3.6 in the near term.

Brent ($ 67.88) has bounced back from the low of $ 65.19 and closed higher at $ 67.33 yesterday. US-Iran tensions have escalated after the US Navy shot down an Iranian drone that approached an American aircraft carrier in the Arabian Sea. A range of $ 65-$ 70 is likely to hold for some time.

WTI ($ 63.84) tested a low of $ 61.12 and bounced back sharply to close at $ 63.21 yesterday. Immediate support is seen near $ 61 and while this holds, a range of $ 61-$ 66 can persist for some time.

Gold ($ 5061.60) has bounced back in line with our expectations and can continue to rise towards $ 5200-$ 5300 in the near term.

Silver ($ 86.76) has bounced back as expected and can rise further towards $ 88-$ 89 in the near term.

Copper ($ 6.03) has bounced back as mentioned and can move higher towards $ 6.10-$ 6.20 in the coming sessions.

Natural Gas ($ 3.3340) has bounced back from the immediate support at $ 3.2 and while above this level, a rise towards $ 3.4-$ 3.6 can be seen in the near term.

5:00 10:30 IN Services PMI
…Expectations 59.3 …Previous 58.0

10:00 15:30 EU Flash CPI (YoY)
…Expectations 1.8 …Previous 1.9

13:15 18:45 US ADP Emp
…Expectations 48.0 …Previous 41.0

DATA YESTERDAY
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GMT 3:30 IST 09:00 RBA Meeting
…Expectations 3.9 …Previous 3.6