The DXY need to sustain above 97.50 to head towards 98.50 in the near term. EURUSD is stuck between 1.1850-1.1750 region. EURINR has declined but downside can be limited to 106.00-105.50. EURJPY can remain within the 182-186 range. While USDJPY can test 158 in the coming sessions. USDCNY can drift toward 6.90-6.85 levels. The Aussie may trade within 0.71-0.69 region. Pound is coming off and a break below 1.36 if seen can take it towards 1.350-1.345 levels. USDINR can remain ranged within 90-91 region for now. Watch out for the ECB & the BOE meeting scheduled today.
Dollar Index (97.724) has risen past 97.50 and if sustained, can head towards the resistance coming near 98.50 region. Overall, a broad 96.00-98.50 range can hold in the near term.
EURUSD (1.1794) is moving within 1.1850-1.1750 region since the last few sessions. A decisive break on either side will be needed for further clarity.
EURINR (106.6919) started coming off from 107.12 itself, contrary to our view of seeing a rise towards 107.50-108.00. Going ahead, even if the fall continues, the downside is expected to be limited to 106.00-105.50 region.
EURJPY (185.01) is rising towards the upper end of its 182-186 range. A break past 186 will be needed to bring 188 levels into picture, else the range can continue to hold.
Dollar-Yen (156.79) has moved up as expected and if the ongoing rise sustains, a test to 158 can happen in the near term.
USDCNY (6.9334) has recovered slightly but while below 6.95, a gradually decline towards 6.90-6.85 levels can be witnessed in the medium term.
Aussie (0.6983) continues to remain ranged within 0.71-0.69 region. A clear break on either side will be needed for further clarity.
Pound (1.3637) turned lower from 1.3733 itself contrary to our target of 1.38. A break below 1.36 could open the way for support at 1.350-1.345.
USDINR (90.4210) tested 90.53 before easing. A sustained break above 90.50 is needed for a move towards 91. Overall, it may remain ranged within 90-91.
The US Treasury yields continue to remain stable. For now, the yields are stuck inside a range and are likely to remain intact for some more time. Eventually we expect the yields to make a bullish breakout of their range. German yields have come down. Immediate picture looks unclear. Need to see if the ECB meeting outcome today is providing any trigger to push the yields higher. The 10Yr GoI has come down further. It can dip to test its support and then reverse higher to resume the broader uptrend.
The US 10Yr (4.27%) and 30Yr (4.91%) Treasury yields continue to remain stable within its 4.2%-4.3%/4.35% (10Yr) and 4.8%-4.95% (30Yr) range. Need to wait for the range breakout. We expect a bullish breakout of this range.
The German 10Yr (2.86%) and 30Yr (3.52%) yields have come down. The immediate picture is unclear. The 10Yr seems to be stuck between 2.8% and 2.9%. The 30Y can rise back to 2.6% while it sustains above 3.5%.
The 10Yr GoI (6.6972%) has come down further. Support at 6.65% is likely to hold. The yield can rise back above 6.7% again and go up to 6.8%.
The Dow needs to break above 49600 to rise further to 50000-50200 while the DAX needs to sustain trade above 24500 to avoid any decline to 24000-23500. Nifty is holding above 25500 for now and has scope to eventually rise towards 26000 and higher. Nikkei is headed towards 55000 while above 53000. Shanghai has dipped today after closing above 4100 yesterday. While we expect a range of 4200-4050 to hold, any break below 4050 can take it down towards 3900.
The Dow(49501.30, +0.53%) is hovering near crucial near term resistance near 49600. A break above this level is needed for a rise to 50000-50200 in the near term.
DAX (24603.04, -0.72%) has dipped again. Failure to sustain trade above 24500 could drag it lower towards 24000-23500 in the coming weeks.
Nifty (25776, +0.19%) tested 25,563 yesterday before rebounding to close higher. A broader range of 26,400-25,000 is likely to hold for the near term.
Nikkei (54279.68, -0.025%) is trading slightly lower today. The index could slowly rise towards 55000 with some interim dips. Overall view is bullish above 53000.
Having closed higher at 4102 yesterday, Shanghai (4076 54, -0.63%) has dipped again today. While we expect the trade range of 4050-4200 to hold, we remain cautious. Any break below 4050-4000 could make the index vulnerable to decline to 3900.
Brent and WTI have moved up but remain range-bound below $ 70 and within $ 66–$ 61 respectively. Gold needs to hold above $ 5000 to resume the earlier rise, while silver has weakened and risks a fall towards $ 76–$ 74 unless $ 90 is cleared. Copper must sustain above $ 6 to regain upside momentum. Natural gas remains positive with scope to rise towards $ 3.5–$ 3.6.
Brent ($ 68.20) rose to a high of $ 69.75 yesterday. While below $ 70, a range of $ 70-$ 65 is likely to hold for some time.
WTI ($ 63.97) has risen but can trade within a range of $ 66-$ 61 for some time.
Gold ($ 4921.50) has fallen back. It needs to sustain above $ 5000 to see the earlier mentioned rise towards $ 5200-$ 5300.
Silver ($ 78.42) has fallen sharply, contrary to our expectations. A sustained break above $ 90 is needed to see higher levels of $ 96-$ 98, else it risks falling to $ 76-$ 74.
Copper ($ 5.8015) has reverted, contrary to our expectations. It needs to hold above $ 6 to see a rise towards $ 6.10-$ 6.20, else it can dip to $ 5.6.
Natural Gas ($ 3.4420) has risen in line with our expectations and can rise further towards $ 3.5-$ 3.6 in the near term.
GMT 0:30 IST 06:00 Australia Trade Balance
…Expectations 3.45 …Previous 2.94
GMT 10:00 IST 15:30 EU Retail Sales
…Expectations -0.2 …Previous 0.2
GMT 12:00 IST 17:30 BOE Mtg
…Expectations 3.75 …Previous 3.75
GMT 12:00 IST 17:30 UK BOE Minutes
…Expectations 0-2-7 …Previous 0-5-4
GMT 13:15 IST 18:45 ECB Mtg
…Expectations 2.15 …Previous 2.15
DATA YESTERDAY
================
GMT 5:00 IST 10:30 IN Services PMI
58.0 …Expectations 59.3 …Previous 58.0 …Actual 58.5
GMT 10:00 IST 15:30 EU Flash CPI (YoY)
…Expectations 1.8 …Previous 1.9 …Actual 1.7
GMT 13:15 18:45 IST US ADP Emp
…Expectations 48.0 …Previous 41.0 …Actual 22.0