The ECB & BOE kept the interest rates unchanged at 2.15% & 3.75% respectively. The DXY can test 98.50 in the near term before eventually coming down. EURUSD is stuck between 1.1850-1.1750 region. EURINR has declined but downside can be limited to 106.00-105.50. EURJPY can remain within the 186-182 range. USDJPY can test 158 while it remains above 156/55. USDCNY can drift toward 6.90-6.85 levels. The Aussie may trade within 0.71-0.69 region. Pound declined as expected. Now, immediate support is seen around 1.345 and while it holds, the pair can attempt to rise back towards 1.36 and higher. USDINR can remain ranged within 90-91 region for now. Watch out for the RBI MPC meeting scheduled today.

Dollar Index (97.86) can test the resistance coming near 98.50 on a break past 98 before getting peaked out.

EURUSD (1.1787) continues to move within 1.1850-1.1750 region. A decisive break on either side will be needed for further clarity.

EURINR (106.47) has declined slightly, but immediate support near 106.00-105.50 could limit the downside. From current levels or after testing this support, EURINR may bounce back later.

EURJPY (185.01) observed the high of 185.50 before coming thereby keeping the broad 186-182 range intact for now.

Dollar-Yen (156.77) tested 157.33 before declining a bit. While above 156/155 the target of 158 can get tested in the near term.

USDCNY (6.9373) can witness a gradual decline towards 6.90-6.85 levels in the medium term.

Aussie (0.6945) is trading lower within its 0.71-0.69 region. A clear break on either side will be needed for further clarity.

As cautioned, Pound (1.3549) fell to 1.3508 before recovering a bit. Now, immediate support is coming around 1.345 and while it holds the pair can attempt to rise back towards 1.36 and higher in the coming sessions.

USDINR (90.2940) can trade within a narrow range of 90.00-90.50 and a broad range of 90-91 region for some time.

The US Treasury yields have come down sharply after the initial jobless claims data release showed a significant increase. The fall is contrary to our expectation. Further dip is possible before a reversal happens. The unemployment data release will be important to watch. The German Yields have dipped and are struggling to rise. There is room to fall more from here. The ECB kept the rates unchanged in its meeting yesterday and it was largely a non-event for the market. The 10Yr GoI has dipped below its support contrary to our expectation. Some more fall is possible before the broader uptrend resumes. The RBI monetary policy meeting outcome today will need a close watch.

The US 10Yr (4.18%) and 30Yr (4.85%) Treasury yields have declined sharply contrary to our expectation. While this fall sustains, 4.1% (10Yr) and 4.8%-4.75% (30Yr) can be seen on the downside.

The German 10Yr (2.84%) and 30Yr (3.50%) yields are coming down. The 10Yr is coming down within the 2.8%-2.9% range. The 30Yr can test 3.45% in the near term.

The 10Yr GoI (6.6972%) has dipped below the support at 6.65% contrary to our expectation. Further fall to 6.6% cannot be ruled out before a rise back to 6.7%-6.8% happens.

Sell off in tech shares in the US and weaker US employment data has led to decline in most major indices across the globe. The Dow, Dax, Nifty, Nikkei and Shanghai are all headed towards near term supports at 48000, 24400, 25600, 53000 and 4000 respectively. The supports need to hold for the indices to bounce back in the medium term. Else the indices could be vulnerable to decline further. Watch price action near the mentioned supports.

The Dow(48908.72, -1.20%) declined on weaker US employment data and sell off in tech stocks. A test of 48500-48000 looks possible before a rebound is seen back towards 50000 or higher.

DAX (24491.06, -0.46%) is headed towards support at 24400 from where a bounce can be expected in the medium term. For the next few sessions, view is bearish.

Nifty (25642.80, -0.52%) is holding above the near term support at 25600 above which there is some scope for a rise to 26000 or higher. Failure to hold above 25600 can drag it lower towards 25000 again. Watch price action at 25600 in the next few sessions.

Nikkei (53317.62, -0.93%) declined after tech-sector sell off was seen in the US equities. With immediate support near 53000, we may expect near term trade between 53000-55000.

Shanghai (4043.54, -0.79%) is headed towards support at 4000 on the 3-day candles from where a bounce can take it towards 4100-4200 again. Else failure to hold above 4000 can make the index vulnerable to decline towards 3900-3800. Watch price action near 4000.

Brent and WTI are under pressure and can stay range-bound between $ 70-$ 65 and $ 66-$ 61 respectively. Gold and Silver remain weak with further downside towards $ 4700-$ 4600 and $ 65-$ 60. Copper can extend its decline towards $ 5.50-$ 5.40. Natural Gas is holding firm and can rise further towards $ 3.55-$ 3.60 in the near term.

Brent ($ 67.80) has dipped and, while it holds below $ 70, a range of $ 70-$ 65 is likely to hold for some time.

WTI ($ 63.59) can trade within a range of $ 66-$ 61 for some time.

Gold ($ 4840.70) is falling and can decline towards $ 4700-$ 4600 in the near term before any bounce back is seen.

Silver ($ 72.07) has plunged sharply to a low of $ 70.18 yesterday. A further decline towards $ 65-$ 60 remains likely in the near term. Thereafter, support near $ 60 can trigger a bounce back.

Copper ($ 5.7735) has dipped in line with our expectations and tested a low of $ 5.6850 yesterday. A further decline towards $ 5.50-$ 5.40 can be seen in the near term.

Natural Gas ($ 3.5120) is moving up in line with our expectations and can rise further towards $ 3.55-$ 3.60 in the near term.

GMT 4:30 IST 10:00 RBI Repo Rate
…Previous 5.25

GMT 4:30 IST 10:00 RBI Rev Repo Rate
…Previous 3.35

GMT 4:30 IST 10:00 RBI MSF
…Previous 5.50

GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 US NFP
…Expectations 67 …Previous 50

GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 US Unemployment Rate
…Expectations 4.4 …Previous 4.4

GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 US Avg Hrly Earnings
0.4 …Expectations 0.3 …Previous 0.3

GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 US Average Hourly Earnings Production & Non Supervisory Employees
…Previous 0.1

GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 CA Labour Force
…Previous 53.6

DATA YESTERDAY
================
GMT 0:30 IST 06:00 Australia Trade Balance
…Expectations 3.45 …Previous 2.94 …Actual 3.37

GMT 10:00 IST 15:30 EU Retail Sales
…Expectations -0.2 …Previous 0.2 …Actual -0.5

GMT 12:00 IST 17:30 BOE Mtg
…Expectations 3.75 …Previous 3.75 …Actual 3.75

GMT 12:00 IST 17:30 UK BOE Minutes
…Expectations 0-2-7 …Previous 0-5-4 …Actual 0-4-5

GMT 13:15 IST 18:45 ECB Mtg
…Expectations 2.15 …Previous 2.15 …Actual