The DXY & EURUSD are stuck within 98-97 & 1.1750-1.1850 region respectively. EURINR has a scope to rise towards 107.50-108.00 while it remains above 107. EURJPY has declined from the high of 186.23. There is room in the charts for the pair to extend the rise towards 187.50 as well while it remains above 182.50. USDJPY can move within 158-156 range for now. USDCNY can drift toward 6.90-6.85 levels. The Aussie may trade within 0.69-0.71 region. Pound need to break past 1.365 to bring higher levels into picture. USDINR can remain ranged within 90-91 region for now.

Dollar Index (97.623) is stuck between 98-97 region. Overall, the upside looks capped at 98.50.

EURUSD (1.1829) continues to move within 1.1750-1.1850 region. A decisive break past 1.1850 if seen can bring 1.19-1.20 levels into picture.

EURINR (107.0843) need to see a sustained move above 107 to head towards 107.50-108.00 levels in the near term. Immediate support is coming at 106.

EURJPY (185.32) tested 186.23 before coming down. While the support at 182.50 holds, there could still be scope to see a further rise toward 187.50 an above in the near term.

Dollar-Yen (156.77) rose to the high of 187.62 before declining. The pair can consolidate between 156-158 region for some time before a clear break is seen.

USDCNY (6.9330) can witness a gradual decline towards 6.90-6.85 levels in the medium term.

Aussie (0.6945) continues to move within its 0.69-0.74 range.

Pound (1.3605) has risen in line with our view and a break past 1.365 will be needed to bring 1.37-1.38 levels into focus. Immediate downside can be limited to 1.350-1.345.

USDINR (90.5430) tested 90.8550 on Friday before coming down. A sustained move above 90.50 can take it towards 91.00-91.25 levels. Overall, a broad range of 90-91 range can hold for some time.

The US Treasury yields have risen back from their lows. Failure to sustain this bounce can drag them down in the near term. The German Yields remain lower and stable. They have room to fall further from here. The 10Yr GoI has risen back sharply after the RBI meeting on Friday. The RBI kept the repo rates unchanged at 5.25%. The rise back move has happened much faster than expected and it keeps intact our broader bullish view. More rise is on the cards.

The US 10Yr (4.22%) and 30Yr (4.86%) Treasury yields have risen back from their lows. Failure to sustain this can drag them down to 4.1% (10Yr) and 4.8%-4.75% (30Yr) in the near term.

The German 10Yr (2.84%) and 30Yr (3.51%) yields remain lower and stable. They have room to test 2.8% (10Yr) and 3.45% (30Yr) in the near term. The price action thereafter will need a close watch.

The 10Yr GoI (6.7363%) has risen back sharply from the low of 6.6305% and has come above 6.7% again as expected. That keeps intact our view of seeing 6.8% on the upside.

The Dow has recovered the sell off in tech shares seen last week. A break above 50500 can take it towards 52000. The Dax has also moved up from support near 24400. Now a break past 25000 would be further bullish for the medium term. Nifty is holding above 25600 but needs a break past 26000 for a further rally in the medium term. Nikkei has rallied after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi won a landmark election victory. While the rally continues, 58000 could be the next target. Shanghai is rising towards 4100-4200 as expected.

The Dow(50115.67, +2.47%) recovered the decline from the tech-sell off seen last week. The recovery has happened much faster than expected. A break above 50500 will pave the way towards 52000 soon.

DAX (24721.46, +0.94%) rose well, bounding back sharply from support near 24400. Now the index could test immediate resistance at 25000. A break above 25000 is necessary for further bullishness; else the index can continue in the 24400-25000 range for sometime.

Nifty (25693.70, +0.20%) has risen, holding above our expected support at 25600. A further rise above 26000 is needed for medium term bullishness.

Nikkei (56842.44, +4.77%) rallied after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi won a landmark election victory. If the rally continues, it could soon test 58000 before pausing for a small correction.

Shanghai (4097.29, +0.78%) has recovered from the dip seen last week and is rising towards 4100-4200 as expected. Overall trade within 4000-4200 remains intact.

Brent and WTI remain range bound below $ 70 and $ 66, with Brent holding $ 70–$ 65 and WTI $ 66–$ 61. Gold and Silver have bounced sharply from recent lows. Gold needs a break above $ 5100 to move towards $ 5300–$ 5500, while Silver can extend the rise towards $ 90–$ 95. Copper has bounced back, though a sustained move above $ 6.00 is needed for further upside. Natural Gas has fallen, but support near $ 3.10 can limit the fall and allow a bounce towards $ 3.50.

Brent ($ 67.38) can continue to trade within a range of $ 70–$ 65 for some time while it trades below $ 70.

WTI ($ 63.00) can remain in a range of $ 66–$ 61 for some time.

Gold ($ 5019.90) , as expected, tested a low of $ 4670 and bounced back sharply from there to close higher at $ 4979 on Friday. A sustained break above $ 5100 is needed for it to move higher towards $ 5300–$ 5500.

Silver ($ 80.47) , in line with our expectations, fell to a low of $ 63.90 and bounced back sharply from there to close higher at $ 76.90 on Friday. A further rise towards $ 90–$ 95 can be seen in the coming sessions.

Copper ($ 5.8925) has bounced back and closed higher after testing a low of $ 5.5955 on Friday. A sustained break above $ 6.00 is needed for it to move higher towards $ 6.20–$ 6.40.

Natural Gas ($ 3.21) has fallen back contrary to our expectations and tested a low of $ 3.3870 on Friday. Today, it opened with a gap down at $ 3.25 and is continuing to fall. Immediate support is seen near $ 3.10, which can limit the fall and push prices higher towards $ 3.50.

NO MAJOR DATA IS RELEASING TODAY.

DATA LAST FRIDAY
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GMT 4:30 IST 10:00 RBI Repo Rate
…Previous 5.25 …Actual 5.25

GMT 4:30 IST 10:00 RBI Rev Repo Rate
…Previous 3.35 …Actual 3.35

GMT 4:30 IST 10:00 RBI MSF
…Previous 5.50 …Actual 5.50

GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 US NFP
…Expectations 67 …Previous 50 …Actual

GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 US Unemployment Rate
…Expectations 4.4 …Previous 4.4 …Actual

GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 US Avg Hrly Earnings
0.4 …Expectations 0.3 …Previous 0.3 …Actual

GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 US Average Hourly Earnings Production & Non Supervisory Employees
…Previous 0.1 …Actual

GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 CA Labour Force
…Previous 53.6 …Actual -24.8